Should you update the OP to include Shin Megami Tensei IV and the upcoming Tomagatchi games for 3DS? Might help give people a better idea of why the DS 2006 vs 3DS 2013 comparison is so important to 3DS's long-term success in the Japanese market.

It depends on what Nintendo does. Pokemon and Monster Hunter are great franchises, but 2006 had the DS redesign. 3DS still has a weak battery, and I bet a lot of gamers (like me) are still holding out for a better system.

2013 3DS might not top the DS in 2006, but it should top 2007 numbers.

When Nintendo redesigns the 3DS in 2013 or 2014, that year will be one of 3DS's strongest, in all regions.

Well the thing about the redesign is that it's sort of backwards with 3DS.  Nintendo released a compact 3DS as the launch model, and then released an XL version a year and a half later.  With DS, they released a bulky launch model, then the compact model a year and a half later, then the XL model near the tail-end of the system's lifespan.

I'm not sure how likely an even smaller 3DS model is.  I remember Miyamoto saying last E3 that the base model of the 3DS is pretty much exactly what they wanted it to be, and they didn't think a smaller one was necessary.

It's not all about size though.

Yes the original DS was bulky, but people didn't buy a DS lite just because it was 20% lighter and smaller. The screen had brightness settings (instead of just on and off), and grew .1". The battery life doubled from 6-10 hours to 15-19 hours, and the new system looked a lot better.

The current 3DS has more issues then the original DS. First of all the battery life is only 3-5 hours, and I am sure that's a huge hinderance for a lot of children gamers (parents need to occupy their kids for longer, or at least not worry about charge), and the screens touch when you close the system.

Plus Nintendo could still release a dual analoge system just prior to the release of Monster Hunter 4, that would really help boost sales.

A redesigned system could fix these issues. 3DS XL is in a better position, I'd buy one if there were better colour options, but In Japan they have like 12 colour options, so that's not an issue there (and probably a reason why it sells so much better).

Week 9!

DS 06 -- 124,286
3DS 13 -- 77,572

This is the week of the release of the DS Lite, as well as the following DS titles -- Children of Mana (106k), Doraemon: Nobita no Kyouryuu (17k), and Magnetica (11k). Consequently, DS hardware sales spike to nearly 125k. The 3DS also saw one major and two smaller software releases this week, but they are unable to spur a significant increase in sales, barely pushing hardware up a few thousand. The three games were Professor Layton and the Legacy of Super Civilization A (133k), Dragon Ball Heroes: Ultimate Mission (90k), and Touch Detective: Nameko Shigeru (26k).

Week 10 preview: DS sales increase to 140,392 next week, with only a small (6k) new release. With no major releases coming next week, it's likely 3DS sales will drop. DS could have a 2-1 ratio over 3DS.

The tally thus far:

DS 06 -- 576,206
3DS 13 -- 1,028,001
Adv 3DS +451,795

Gooo 3ds (luigi mansion should help week 11)

Consider yourself re-tagged, thread!

Anyhow, I expect the 3DS to continue the upward trend whilst staying between '06 and '07 numbers. After the '07 numbers start to drop (near the end of the year) I see the 3DS pulling ahead of '07 but falling slightly below '06's number.

Wouldn't 100% more of zero still be zero?

Over two months later, this is all you have to say about this thread? XD

The DS lite launch pretty much completely turned DS sales around back in 06. It's nothing but incredibly hard comparisons from here on out. Not a single week below 100k and sales mostly yo-yo'ing between 100k and 300k. I'm not saying it's impossible but 3DS has quite a road to plow.