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Forums - Sales Discussion - The PS3 / X360 SW Drop Off is now entering the terminal phase

TheLastStarFighter on 08 January 2013
binary solo 4 hours ago
Gilgamesh said:
man-bear-pig said:
Gilgamesh said:

Ton's of huge games releasing 2013 could be a good year.


How many units do you think the PS3 will sell next year?


About 8 or 9 million, there will be a price cut which will help, but a PS4 announcements going to slow things down a lot.

It would be sub 10 million even without PS4 anouncement. The only home console selling 8 figures in 2012 is Wii U.

Wii U can easily have a 10 million lead by the time Sony and MS release their next consoles. But in the grand scheme of things that 10 million lead isn't much unless it grows by a lot oiver the following 3-4 years. Wii U ending the next gen 10 million ahead is a win but not a great win.

 

I think the 10 million lead is huge. It could essentially mean that Wii U could sell at 50% of the pace of other systems going forward and still have the same install base half way into the generation.  Early launches have been major for systems in getting market share, whether it's Genesis vs SNES, PS1 vs N64, X360 vs PS3, DS vs PSP and 3DS vs PSV.  All of these systems were either able to take the lead or substantially reduce the rival's previous gen's lead by launching first.  Never being behind in install base is a wonderful thing for a system.

 



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Gehirnkrampf on 08 January 2013

Wow.
I really cant believe this sale rates. Two games per year?
I buy about 20 or 25. Maybe bargain bins arent tracked too good.



must-have-list for platforms i don't own yet:

WiiU: Donkey Kong

XBone: Dead Rising 3, Ryse

Gilgamesh on 08 January 2013
TheLastStarFighter said:
binary solo 4 hours ago
Gilgamesh said:
man-bear-pig said:
Gilgamesh said:

Ton's of huge games releasing 2013 could be a good year.


How many units do you think the PS3 will sell next year?


About 8 or 9 million, there will be a price cut which will help, but a PS4 announcements going to slow things down a lot.

It would be sub 10 million even without PS4 anouncement. The only home console selling 8 figures in 2012 is Wii U.

Wii U can easily have a 10 million lead by the time Sony and MS release their next consoles. But in the grand scheme of things that 10 million lead isn't much unless it grows by a lot oiver the following 3-4 years. Wii U ending the next gen 10 million ahead is a win but not a great win.

 

I think the 10 million lead is huge. It could essentially mean that Wii U could sell at 50% of the pace of other systems going forward and still have the same install base half way into the generation.  Early launches have been major for systems in getting market share, whether it's Genesis vs SNES, PS1 vs N64, X360 vs PS3, DS vs PSP and 3DS vs PSV.  All of these systems were either able to take the lead or substantially reduce the rival's previous gen's lead by launching first.  Never being behind in install base is a wonderful thing for a system.

 

X360 had a 10 million lead on the Wii and PS3, it definitely wasn't a big lead for the Wii was ended up to be good competition for Sony.



TheLastStarFighter on 08 January 2013

I never said a 10 mil lead means you win a gen, I said it's a big deal.  Master System was demolished by NES, but Genesis used its head start to carve out a niche for itself.  XBox was a spec of dust walked over by PS2 but 360 held it's own and tied PS3 to date. Without that start 360 would be last right now.  In the case of WiiU, the head start means that it will likely be the market leader for at least 3 years barring disaster.  That is very handy for getting word-of-mouth sales and 3rd party support.