Forums - Sales Discussion - A bit on Wii, PS3, 360 shipment figures

Hus said:
FishyJoe said:
Hus, do you even realize every time you use the word 'kiddy' you're only making yourself sound completely immature?

 no iam just not a kiddy idiot that refuses to accept the fact NIN only makes kiddy games.

 their games are nothing but kiddy crap, saying nin has the best devs is a joke.  

not every onea wants to play kiddy games.


And you don't see the irony in your kiddy posts. :)

Ei Kiinasti.

Eikä Japanisti.

Vaan pannaan jalalla koreasti.

 

Nintendo games sell only on Nintendo system.

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I found this small bit of news on the Yahoo website and although it's really nothing we wouldn't know already there's one bit that caught my eye.

 "Sony has sold just 1.84 million PlayStation 3 machines so far worldwide, while Microsoft..."

I don't know where they get these figures, but I'd say that either they are seriously mistaken or then the calculations on this website are a tad too optimistic PS3-wise. 

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070427/ap_on_hi_te/japan_nintendo;_ylt=As4cnKWAbzSF9qqI142laknMWM0F

 

And my apologizes for reposting this incase this has already been posted and analyzed in some other thread already.



I saw that article too..on yahoo.  I think they are referring to data through February when PS3 was just over 1 million in the Americas, and around 800k in Japan.  This would be before March NPD and Europe's launch.  March was definitely the PS3's biggest month for a while - since they likely went from well under 2 million sold to very near 3 million sold in just March (probably went from 1.6 million to 2.8 million worldwide).

If sales stayed where they are now..(sales,  rough number of weeks/month) ~ monthly sales

PS3: (11k x 4.5) ~ 50,000 per month in Japan  (20k x 4.5) ~ 90,000 per month in the USA   ~ 60,000 to 80,000 for the rest of the world?

That would be 200,000 to 220,000 sold per month for most months, putting March at 6x greater sales than May (roughly).  April likely will have higher sales than May though, with Golden Week/PS3 Eurolaunch madness into mid-month.  April will probably have sales of 325,000-350,000 for PS3. 

360 for comparison, seems to do 225k to 275k just in the Americas most months, with another 20k for Japan and probably another 75,000 to 125,000 in the rest of the world.  320,000 to 420,000 per month on average.

Wii is the most fluid it seems, since the 'launch' type sales have not died yet (Average launch months 1 and 2 together - divide by 2. When sales are lower than that number, launch sales are gone, I'd say there is a 5% fudge factor to account for NPD's imperfections.)

For Wii, that number is..540k for month 1 and month 2.  270,000 is the needed number for me to consider it in 'launch' demand.  January - Yes.  February - Yes.  March - I say yes, even though sales were 259,000 because it is within the 5% fudge factor, and supply was constrained.

Compare to PS3.  Month 1 and 2 averaged sales -  343,000.  171,500 is the needed number for me to consider it 'launch' demand.  January - Yes.  February - No, sales were not supply constrained and sales were not within 5% of 171,500 (around 163,000+).  For added confirmation, weekly sales rates dropped in March. 

With that said, Wii sells around 60,000 in Japan/week..about 275,000 per month.  In the Americas, sales are higher, more like 325,000 per month (over 70,000 per week on average).  Nintendo is kind of shafting Europe right now, since they sold 800,000 in December but have only sold another 800,000 since.  That is roughly 45,000 sold/week, around 210,000 per month.

So..from what I can tell:

PS3 Monthly sales post April: 200,000 to 220,000

360 Monthly sales: 320,000 to 420,000

Wii Monthly sales pre capacity increase: 780,000 to 840,000 (Iwata says supply will improve in May, I guess if the production went up in early April, it takes some time to make Wii, then to ship them to retailer distribution centers, then the retailers themselves...I think it will show up this week in Japan for anticipation of Golden Week and then the next week around the world). 

Best case scenario for Nintendo: At the these rates Wii could pass 360 in mid November.  But, Wii sales sales capacity will likely hit 1.2 million (Nintendo has claimed they are already making 1 million per month in 2007).  At those rates, (assuming immediate increases starting now), Wii would catch up in early September.  However, with big 360 games coming out throughout the year, I suspect that pushes the date back 4-6 weeks, when 360 sales are much closer to Wii worldwide sales.  So I'm going with November 7, 2007 as the day you will see Wii in first place on the front page.   



People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu

TheSource said:

 



So..from what I can tell:

PS3 Monthly sales post April: 200,000 to 220,000

360 Monthly sales: 320,000 to 420,000


I've seen you post a couple of times on this forum now and your figures are always come with the same spin. You under estimate the ps3, you over estimate the xbox360 and the wii.

How the heck can the ps3 only sell between 200,000 to 220,000 per month worldwide? For starters in japan the 11k a week is only temporary before the summer and some of the big games start coming out. Even if you take your 50k~ per month in japan you've underestimated america where the ps3 is doing 26,000-32,000 per week which means 125,000~ per month and thats before the big summer releases. And in Europe it is still selling very well with motorstorm and resistance fall of man still in the charts and will be for a long time. Most new playstation 3 games in europe make it into the top 20 list for the week, Fear did last week and Oblivion will this week. In europe + rest of the world it's easliy doing 80,000-100,000 per month. So in total per month before the big summer games come it's already doing 265,000~ per month.

The xbox360 is only doing 15,000~ per month in japan. In america it has droped to doing 35,000~ per week so thats 155,000~ per month and in europe people dont realise how bad it is doing now and it is only at 40,000-50,000 per month. So that's a total of 215,000~ per month worldwide, less than the ps3.

As for the wii the demand will die down by the summer and only then can you see how much it sells once the hype has died down.



Not that 265,000/month is so great but..

In Japan, sales are 11,000 per week, and aside from a likely increase from golden week, they should keep dropping week to week until Ninja Gaiden comes out in June..then drop back down in two or three weeks after it releases. 

I think Sony will have weeks below 10,000 in Japan in the near future.. months which would could be 35,000 to 45,000.  Sales in the USA are dropping as well.  Motorstorm came out in March, but in 5 weeks PS3 did essentially 130,000 (NPD).   That is 26,000 per week.  Demand will slacken quite a bit in April with the warmer weather, lack of a great new game like Motorstorm, and a shorter NPD month.  Europe sales are still higher than normal from the launch.  I think March 22- April 15 were exceptionally high, but then initial demand wore off, and now sales are lower.  By May 1 I think sales will be below Wii or 360 in some/most/all European countries, although I know places like Spain love Sony, just as the UK has been good to Microsoft, and France has been good to Nintendo.

Sales in Europe for Sony are stronger than in Japan, but less than what I think the USA did at the same relative time frame (US sales were still great for PS3 through January almost 50,000/week still).  To me, since I don't have Euro numbers, I set it up like PS3 sales USA>PS3 sales Europe>PS3 sales Japan.  If in the USA sales are only 26,000 per week..and in Japan sales are 11,000 per week...then 63,000 per week is the upper limit.  But again, I don't have European numbers.  63,000 x4.5 weeks would be 283,500, as a maximum for monthly sales.  I think it is more likely that European PS3 sales are 18,000 per week or something of that nature (ok you got me, that is higher than the range I gave).  The absolute range seems to be 216,000 to 283,500 if 'other' sales are 11,000 to 26,000 per week, post April.



People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu

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Hus said:
FishyJoe said:
Hus, do you even realize every time you use the word 'kiddy' you're only making yourself sound completely immature?

 no iam just not a kiddy idiot that refuses to accept the fact NIN only makes kiddy games.

 their games are nothing but kiddy crap, saying nin has the best devs is a joke.  

not every onea wants to play kiddy games.

and not everyone wants to sit alone for hours on some epic adventure against good and evil... yeah, so much diversity. If your not shooting at something or beating up something, it's kiddy, right?

The only PS3 titles that are insteresting to me are warhawk and Ratchet & Clank... the rest are the same "an epic journey where a warrior tries to right the wrongs of an empire blah blah blah insert overly dramatic story here..." games that have saturated the market for the last 5 years or are formulaic FPS games that have saturated the market for 5 years... I don't see how your going to say Wii has nothing but kiddy games when A) I could name atleast 5 that are in no way kiddy off the top of my head and B) The PS3 has the most limited game lineup of any system... unless someone is an 18-24 year old male, there isn't a whole lot to enjoy on the PS3.



wii_are_better_than_ said:
Hus said:
FishyJoe said:
Hus, do you even realize every time you use the word 'kiddy' you're only making yourself sound completely immature?

no iam just not a kiddy idiot that refuses to accept the fact NIN only makes kiddy games.

their games are nothing but kiddy crap, saying nin has the best devs is a joke.

not every onea wants to play kiddy games.

and not everyone wants to sit alone for hours on some epic adventure against good and evil... yeah, so much diversity. If your not shooting at something or beating up something, it's kiddy, right?

The only PS3 titles that are insteresting to me are warhawk and Ratchet & Clank... the rest are the same "an epic journey where a warrior tries to right the wrongs of an empire blah blah blah insert overly dramatic story here..." games that have saturated the market for the last 5 years or are formulaic FPS games that have saturated the market for 5 years... I don't see how your going to say Wii has nothing but kiddy games when A) I could name atleast 5 that are in no way kiddy off the top of my head and B) The PS3 has the most limited game lineup of any system... unless someone is an 18-24 year old male, there isn't a whole lot to enjoy on the PS3.


How is the ps3's selection of games limited? It has rpgs - oblivion & enchant arms, it has fps's - resistance & call of duty 3, it has racers - motorstorm, ridge racer 7, formula one, need for speed and full auto 2, it has sports games - nba street, fight night, tiger woods, nba 2k7, virtua tennis, nhl 2k7, madden, baseball 2k7, pool, it has action games - marvel, the godfather, genji and the best fighter - virtua fighter 5.

 

The wii is the limited one of the two. Most of the wii's games are either mini games/none games or kids games.



blowfish said:
wii_are_better_than_ said:
Hus said:
FishyJoe said:
Hus, do you even realize every time you use the word 'kiddy' you're only making yourself sound completely immature?

no iam just not a kiddy idiot that refuses to accept the fact NIN only makes kiddy games.

their games are nothing but kiddy crap, saying nin has the best devs is a joke.

not every onea wants to play kiddy games.

and not everyone wants to sit alone for hours on some epic adventure against good and evil... yeah, so much diversity. If your not shooting at something or beating up something, it's kiddy, right?

The only PS3 titles that are insteresting to me are warhawk and Ratchet & Clank... the rest are the same "an epic journey where a warrior tries to right the wrongs of an empire blah blah blah insert overly dramatic story here..." games that have saturated the market for the last 5 years or are formulaic FPS games that have saturated the market for 5 years... I don't see how your going to say Wii has nothing but kiddy games when A) I could name atleast 5 that are in no way kiddy off the top of my head and B) The PS3 has the most limited game lineup of any system... unless someone is an 18-24 year old male, there isn't a whole lot to enjoy on the PS3.


How is the ps3's selection of games limited? It has rpgs - oblivion & enchant arms, it has fps's - resistance & call of duty 3, it has racers - motorstorm, ridge racer 7, formula one, need for speed and full auto 2, it has sports games - nba street, fight night, tiger woods, nba 2k7, virtua tennis, nhl 2k7, madden, baseball 2k7, pool, it has action games - marvel, the godfather, genji and the best fighter - virtua fighter 5.

 

The wii is the limited one of the two. Most of the wii's games are either mini games/none games or kids games.

really? Let's see:
RPG: Zelda, check.
FPS: Red Steel, check.
Racers: Excite Truck, check.
Sports: Madden, check.
Action: Marvel, check.

Looks like Wii has the same types of games as the PS3, PLUS those minigames that you all seem to hate (but are selling better than all the others combined.



Help! I'm stuck in a forum signature!

TheSource.

I think that you are downplaying the PS3's 07 lineup a bit much.

I think it is a bit better than the others. I would say Wii, but common sense says at least 1 big game gets moved to 2008. (SMG or SSBB would be my guess.)

And omgwtfbbq:
Being that Zelda is Action/Adventure, Red Steel was bad, and the Madden and Marvel were multi-platform.

Anyways, this is a bit off topic but I think that there is 3 Wii that are worth buying that being Zelda, Wario Ware, and Super Paper Mario. 
And the that there four games worth buying on PS3. Resistance, Virtua Fighter 4, Motorstorm, and Oblivion.
Being that Virtua Fighter is more of a niche game; I suppose you could remove.

Thats makes the PS3 and Wii games current and future line-up very, very bright.



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It just depends on what games you want.  90% of the games I want this year are coming out on Wii, DS, and PS2.



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