Today was a pretty big day in the so called "Console Wars".  I'm going to run down everything that happened today and go into what I think it means.

1) Nintendo and Microsoft announce record profit.  Nintendo's is purely from gaming, Microsoft's is hampered by gaming.

2) Ken Kurtagi, the man who forced Yamauchi's Nintendo to change, and whose actions effectively destroyed Sega's hardware aspirations and brought Microsoft into the videogame market, has quit/retired/left/been fired from running day to day Playstation matters.

3) Microsoft revealed shipment figures by not changing them...  Microsoft shipped 10.4 million to retailers by Jan 1, 2007..but obviously did that for shareholders since they only shipped 500,000 Xbox 360's in Jan-March 2007.  Consider for a moment that at least 600,000 360s were sold just in the USA during that timeframe to have an idea of how many 360s are at retailers.  As far as I know, Microsoft still expects to ship 12 million Xbox 360s by June 30, 2007.  360 I think will have more momentum by then, with actual sell through to customers (read: gamers), at around 10-10.5 million (it is only two months from now after all). 

4) Nintendo announced they will ship 14 million Wiis in fiscal 2007-2008, bring them to ~20 million by March 2008.  Consider that Microsoft, in March 2007 (the equivalent time-frame) was mired in the 9 millions worldwide.  14 million is currently more than Sony & Microsoft have sold to users - combined.  By March 2008 there remains a possibility that Wii sales could still = PS3 + Xbox 360 sales combinted, although I would put that chance at 10% or less. 

5) From what I can tell, here are the distinct advantages each console holds at the moment.

Wii

1) Price.  Cheapest to buy, cheaper games to buy, cheapest to make games for.

2) Ports.  Casual fare like Madden, Guitar Hero, DDR, Tony Hawk, does not require graphical wonder, which makes Wii attractive as the home for casual gamers.  With PS2 still going strong, developers can support the two systems to make alot of money, especially since both consoles will likely be ahead of PS3 and 360 at the end of the year in terms of userbase.

3) 1st party games.  Nintendo still has the best games - at least in terms of worldwide appeal (personally I think the quality is still there too).  Keep in mind Nintendo just bought out the majority of Monolith Studios too (makers of Baten Kaitos 1-2), which likely will increase Wii's RPG presence in Japan. 

4) Diversity of games.  Look at the 2007 lineup:

Warioware, Sonic, SSX Blur, Tigerwoods, Super Paper Mario, Big Brain Academy, Mario Party 8, Nights: Journey into Dreams, Galaxy or Metroid or Brawl, Mario & Sonic at the Olympics, Resident Evil 4 Wii, Resident Evil Umbrella, Manhunt 2, GH3, DDR Hot Mix, Madden, Opoona, Dragon Quest Swords, Mario Strikers, etc

5) Third party potential.  Ubisoft has not generally seen huge sales on Nintendo platforms, but they are going to have two million sellers.  Others will as well.  I think EA, Square-Enx, Capcom, Ubi Soft, Sega all will have a million selling Wii game by year end (likely one from EA - either sports or MySims, Resident Evil:Umbrella, Red Steel 2 - you know it is coming, Mario & Sonic, DQ: Swords)

Xbox 360

1) Inventory.  I think Microsoft shipped a ton of consoles to clear out old inventory pre Halo/GTA madness.  If they can sell profitable hardware when those systems come out, Microsoft may see significant reduction it in it's long-term gaming losses.

2) Price Cut.  At the same time, if Nintendo or (worse for them) Sony make up alot of ground this year, Microsoft will likely forego the cash to win more marketshare.

3) American lineup.  Wii will not catchup to 360 in the USA this year.  I go back and forth over whether it will eventually, I would like to see it, but I don't think it will happen.

The Xbox 360 2007 lineup includes...

Halo 3, GTA, Assassin's Creed, Madden, GH2, DDR, Blue Dragon, Trusty Bell, Devil May Cry (3? i forget), Bioshock, Alan Wake, Forza 2, Mass Effect, PSO: Ambition, Lost Odyessey, GH3.

I see that as an excellent lineup for people with a bad image of the Xbox name in the USA, but sales won't go up that much worldwide.  Even in the USA, there are only like 5 major boosts in that lineup for hardware, Halo 3, GTA, GH2/3, Forza 2, Blue Dragon.  Sandbox games are huge, Halo is huge, Music games are huge, racing is huge, and RPG gamers will flock to the system that gets the highest number of quality RPGs.  The lineup is better than PS3's in America at selling consoles (ignoring console price for a moment), but I don't know that it is better than Wii's in selling hardware.

PS3

1) PS3 won't sell the most but... - Sony won the Blue-Ray war.  Good for them.  But people like my Mom don't even have DVD players yet.  I also have a suspicion that other than technophiles like Kwaad who love HD-TV, the majority of people who buy a state of the art TV use it because they love to watch TV and don't do much else.  I only use my TV for TV on Sunday nights and during the MLB playoffs, otherwise it is for videogames.  Basically, I think most gamers (at least my age), would only upgrade their TV if they love TV, because loving games is not a big enough justification - and that negates the PS3 graphical advantage a bit.

2) PS3 can drop in price - alot - if Sony feels it is necessary.  360 Elite makes it easier for them to compete for the (small) market of technophile gamers in the USA.

3) PS3 "eye" (I think that is the name) The newly announced camera.  Have you read about that thing?  It is pretty interesting to me, and I think it will be used well pretty soon.

4) 1st party sales.  Sony doesn't have an ability to launch crazes like Nintendo can with things like Nintendogs, Pokemon, Brain Training, etc, but they do have a solid staple of beloved, reliable games that appeal specifically to the three regions.  With 3rd parties jumping ship like an angry pirate, Sony can use this as a big differentiator against Microsoft.  Still, in the USA, little can beat Halo 3 at the moment.

5) Home.  I think the porn potential of home will actually attract alot of men to PS3...now whether or not Sony wants this type of customer is a completely different issue.

6) The 2007 lineup is decent, although I think not nearly as good as Wii or 360's.

Motorstorm, Ninja Gaiden Sigma, Lair, Heaven Sword, DMC 4, GTA, Assassin's Creed, Madden, GH3, Metal Gear Solid 4 (maybe.) are the big games to me.  I think the only three that can really move a $600 console are MGS4, GTA, and GH3 (the enhancements could be awesome to lovers of music games).  With the potential for all 3 (and 2 confirmed) on other consoles though, it will likely come down to the package of exclusive games that will make people pay for PS3.

 By the end of 2007 I think we are going to be seeing:

Wii: Japan - 6.5 million LTD, Americas - 6.5 million LTD, Others - 5 million LTD

360: Japan - .55 million LTD, Americas - 9.0 million LTD, Others - 5 million LTD

PS3: Japan - 2.25 million LTD, Americas - 3.5 million LTD, Others - 3 million LTD

The Source,

you forgot Wii Health due out in Japan in July . I think that game is going to be very significantin Japan and I think when Wii Helath comes to the US it will be as big as Nintendogs or Brain Age.

3) 1st party games.  Nintendo still has the best games - at least in terms of worldwide appeal (personally I think the quality is still there too).  Keep in mind Nintendo just bought out the majority of Monolith Studios too (makers of Baten Kaitos 1-2), which likely will increase Wii's RPG presence in Japan. 

Where have you read this? Monolith Soft is namely so far a part of TriCrescendo. I found it strange when my friend told me that his US version of Baten Kaitos said TriScrescendo underneath the logo while my JP version says MLSI (Monolith Soft Inc). I guess that would be wonderful news!

By the way, what's happening with the sell figures of hardware on the main page? They're dropping. Last time I checked PS3 was at 3.16 milion and the WII at 6.54 milion and now lower. Only the DS and 360 has slightly been increased. I made a copy last week of the charts:

 Your perspective.

 1) Price.  Cheapest to buy, cheaper games to buy, cheapest to make games for.

 Yes, yes, no - its cheeper making a multi platform PS3/360/PC game.

2) Ports.  Casual fare like Madden, Guitar Hero, DDR, Tony Hawk, does not require graphical wonder, which makes Wii attractive as the home for casual gamers.  With PS2 still going strong, developers can support the two systems to make alot of money, especially since both consoles will likely be ahead of PS3 and 360 at the end of the year in terms of userbase.

whatever, only in wii world are old gen ports a good thing.

3) 1st party games.  Nintendo still has the best games - at least in terms of worldwide appeal (personally I think the quality is still there too).  Keep in mind Nintendo just bought out the majority of Monolith Studios too (makers of Baten Kaitos 1-2), which likely will increase Wii's RPG presence in Japan. 

Nin has the best kiddy games, but not every one wants kiddy games. 

4) Diversity of games.  Look at the 2007 lineup:

Warioware, Sonic, SSX Blur, Tigerwoods, Super Paper Mario, Big Brain Academy, Mario Party 8, Nights: Journey into Dreams, Galaxy or Metroid or Brawl, Mario & Sonic at the Olympics, Resident Evil 4 Wii, Resident Evil Umbrella, Manhunt 2, GH3, DDR Hot Mix, Madden, Opoona, Dragon Quest Swords, Mario Strikers, etc

better then PS3 or 360 ? best games are all kiddy oriented.  Sure as hell not better then PS3 or 360 line up.

5) Third party potential.  Ubisoft has not generally seen huge sales on Nintendo platforms, but they are going to have two million sellers.  Others will as well.  I think EA, Square-Enx, Capcom, Ubi Soft, Sega all will have a million selling Wii game by year end (likely one from EA - either sports or MySims, Resident Evil:Umbrella, Red Steel 2 - you know it is coming, Mario & Sonic, DQ: Swords)

 Devs are better of making a multi platform PS3/360/PC games, casual fans or nintendo fans are not big 3rd party supporters. 

PS3

1) PS3 won't sell the most but... - Sony won the Blue-Ray war.  Good for them.  But people like my Mom don't even have DVD players yet.  I also have a suspicion that other than technophiles like Kwaad who love HD-TV, the majority of people who buy a state of the art TV use it because they love to watch TV and don't do much else.  I only use my TV for TV on Sunday nights and during the MLB playoffs, otherwise it is for videogames.  Basically, I think most gamers (at least my age), would only upgrade their TV if they love TV, because loving games is not a big enough justification - and that negates the PS3 graphical advantage a bit.

 There are alot more HDTV in the world then PS3s, for theose early adopters/ high tech nuts a 600 for a PS3 is nothing.  In the past 6 months half my family went hdtv. 

Euro cut, World cup, Superball - enouth justification for HDTVs, same people will love Madden or Fifa on the PS3 and not on the wii.

2) PS3 can drop in price - alot - if Sony feels it is necessary.  360 Elite makes it easier for them to compete for the (small) market of technophile gamers in the USA.

Br prices droping,  65 nano chips, they can, when is the queastion. 

3) PS3 "eye" (I think that is the name) The newly announced camera.  Have you read about that thing?  It is pretty interesting to me, and I think it will be used well pretty soon.

 Eye toy

4) 1st party sales.  Sony doesn't have an ability to launch crazes like Nintendo can with things like Nintendogs, Pokemon, Brain Training, etc, but they do have a solid staple of beloved, reliable games that appeal specifically to the three regions.  With 3rd parties jumping ship like an angry pirate, Sony can use this as a big differentiator against Microsoft.  Still, in the USA, little can beat Halo 3 at the moment.

 Sony has some of the best devs in nthe world.  Nin makes mostly kiddy games.  Sony has much better 1st party diversity. Just this week 360 lost 3 exclusives.  

5) Home.  I think the porn potential of home will actually attract alot of men to PS3...now whether or not Sony wants this type of customer is a completely different issue.

 LOL, success is success.

6) The 2007 lineup is decent, although I think not nearly as good as Wii or 360's.

Motorstorm, Ninja Gaiden Sigma, Lair, Heaven Sword, DMC 4, GTA, Assassin's Creed, Madden, GH3, Metal Gear Solid 4 (maybe.) are the big games to me.  I think the only three that can really move a $600 console are MGS4, GTA, and GH3 (the enhancements could be awesome to lovers of music games).  With the potential for all 3 (and 2 confirmed) on other consoles though, it will likely come down to the package of exclusive games that will make people pay for PS3.

 decent lol, actually much better then the Wiis, more world wide frienedly then 360s.

Lair, Heavenly, Killzone,  Warhawk , Uncharted, Golf5, White night Story, Rachat and Clank,  Madden, Fifa, GTA4, Assasins Creed, DMC4, Blacksite A51, Frontlines: Fuel of War, Sigstar, Eyedentity, Eight days, Haze, Dark Sector, Gataway, GH3

Hus: if you're going to make horribly misinformed points, you can at least have the courtesy to make them not so *obviously* horribly misinformed.  You take the fun out of poking the *myriad* of available holes in your argument by pointing most of them out, yourself.

ohh noes, kiddy is mad.

No your reaction is "very mature"

Nintendo have stated that they have upped their productions levels from 1m to 1.16m per month, stating that they will be able to ship 14m units until the end of March 2008.

Yes, potentially if all those units get sold, they will have sold 20m units in total by March 2008. 

You state that you think the Wii will have sold 18m units by the end of this year....this is not feasible going by Nintendo's stats, that they will have only managed to ship aroud 16.5m units maximum by the end of 2007.

Other factors that you fail to think about is that demand starts to slow down...although there are no signs that this will happen...we have 8 months until the end of the year and surely the odds are on that demand will slow down to some degree, especially seeing as there are effectively 3 next gen consoles on the market now worldwide and prices of both the 360 and PS3 are likely to come down at some point this year. 

Anyway, having said all that, I still reckon that Wii will be top of the next gens by the end of this year at 16m units with the 360 at 15m and PS3 at 10m.

i think the new camera is named "eye" hus...

anyway not to offend anyone, *cough* i think WII is a fad *cough*

most of my friends are tired with it now, they say its gotten really boring..

the only person i know who still thinks the WII is the best is my barber.. O.O

tip to you guys... always agree with your barber.. ^_^ i learned that the hard way

wii is selling though.. but imagine going home after work, tired, sweat rolling

down your face, only wanting to unwind by playing a game, you sit down on

 your wide comfy couch feeling as if you havent done it for

an eternity (yeah your that tired )....

so you reach for your controller, then start waving....your...hands?....

anyway i disagree with the source in "who will sell more"..

i see it more in this order wii>ps3>360 ^^

why?..... my boils and arthritis is acting up, which means ps3 beats xbox360.. >_< (pls dont hurt me)