150 million isn't that bad. Especially with all the non-gamers...

And it's after my analysis (that you should read) is that the generation really only has 2 more years (and the 360 only has 1), because you reach the peak at the 3rd year. Better selling consoles (PS2) declined and sold roughly 89 million by the end of the 5th year, 75% of the total lifetime sales (117 million or so). The GameCube and Xbox (relatively bad selling consoles, wouldn't you agree) sold nearly 100% of their total lifetime sales by the end of the 5th year, and actually sold almost 75% in the first 3 years! That means, if the Xbox sells another 10 million, an increase, that's 23 million LTD, if that's roughtly 75% of the total sales, it'll only reach 30 million. The PS2 sold 44% of it's lifetime total by the end of the 3rd year, so that would place the 360 at 52 million. This is only if the 360 sells 10 million this year. And we don't think the 360 is any PS2 do we? I would say that by the end of the 3rd year, it should have sold probably closer to 65% total lifetime sales, so that's in the range of 35 million. The PS3 (without any 2nd year data) is tracking the 360 very closely (better in Japan and Others, but less in NA), so I would say 35 million for the PS3 right now is a good estimate. After this year things will change (obviously).

So yes, it might seem strange, but since no one has downloaded the updated files I have made available, and only 4 people downloaded the old version, and you weren't there discussing those charts when I posted them, I assume you are not one of them, I can assume you haven't looked at the sales as closely as I have, and thus cannot understand where my estimates come from. And like I said... I don't like making predictions. And in the end, it's important to look at increasing/decreasing markets. The Others region has huge potential. The Japan region shrunk last generation compared to the previous generation. Not by much, but still shrunk. These are trends I'd like to take into account. But only after you understand these crazy amount of numbers and percentages and how they all effect (or affect?) the market, can you make practical predictions. Without PS3 2nd year sales (and Wii 2nd year sales for that matter), we cannot make practical predictions for any consoles (even 360, since it will see obvious competition from the other consoles).

So right now, I feel any reasonable prediction, are acceptable. Even crazy ones (Wii 200+ million) might not be as far off as everyone things, but the point is that you have to take into account: console lifespan (high would be 7+ years), manufacturing ability (in order to get to 200 million in 7 years, that's 28 million a year, or roughly 2.3 million a month, not far off for Nintendo), sales trends over time (such that 3rd year is the peak almost certainly), etc.

Using PS2 increases on the Wii for the first 5 years, sales go like this:
1st Year: 14.8 million
2nd Year: 20.72 million (40% increase)
3rd year: 23 million (11% increase)
4th Year: 19.78 million (14% decrease)
5th Year: 19 million (4% decrease)
Now that's only the first 5 years of the PS2 (using Wii first year sales, and PS2 increase year over year percentages). Total: 97.3 million PS2 at this time: 87 million

The PS2 sold 75% of lifetime sales by this point. Using that figure for the Wii, the Wii should sell: 130 million.

Now since I don't have data for over 5 years (not that I couldn't get it), but that's what you get from that point.

In the end, 150 million doesn't sound too hard. Depends on Japan's growth/decline and Others almost certain growth, and NA most likely positve (though maybe small) growth.

Everyone, do yourself a favor and look at my comparisons. If you don't wish to now, I'm working on a slideshow, which should make it easier to read and understand. This is for your benefit.

Edit: I gave reasons for my predictions, using past trends to do so. I used no numbers that are not available to everyone (who reads my comparisons, esp. the excel sheet. lol), and I never brought up one game or price cut. I am THAT good. And for the guess on 360 3rd year sales, I simply used PS2 year over year increase for 3rd year (11%), and upped it due to what I believe is a slow start (due perhaps to people waiting for the PS3), to 10 million, which is a 25% increase, very generous I would say.

@TWRoO: Added you as well (I didn't seem to have the request?) 

What I don't understand is why u say that the X360 will have reached 65% of it's lifetimes sales by the end of it's 3rd year. Why not 50% or 55%? That doesn't make it a PS2.

Putting at 65%, and since most ppl estimates it's 2008 sales to be 7-8 mill, that would give the X360 by EOY 2008 23-24 mill total and by end of gen 36 mill total. So, if we spread those 36-24 mill=8 mill on the years 2009, 2010 and 2011 (Sony won't have a new console released before Nov '11, thats why 2011 is regarded as end of this gen) we get something like 4.5+2.5+1 mill (really awful sales), which would mean that X360 is practically dead already in 2009.

Exactly. You know the GameCube only sold 1.5 million in it's 5th year? The Xbox only sold 1 million in it's final year. Of course, the Wii was release very close to the GameCubes 5th year in NA, so I suppose that's a reason. Also, the 360 was launched nearly 4 years to the day that the Xbox was launched, so 5th year sales would be very bad for it. I use 65% because though the 360 is not a PS2, it's also not a GameCube (nor an Xbox, since it should have a lifespan slightly longer). This is how it looks, as simple as I can put it:

PS2 LTD to Lifetime Sales, at the end of it's third year: 44%
GameCube/Xbox LTD to Lifetime Sales, at the end of it's third year: ~75%

Since the 360 is not a PS2, it will have sold more LTD:Lifetime at the end of the 3rd year, closer to the GameCube and Xbox percentage. It is not, however, a GameCube, seeing that it has outsold it the second year, and actually had an increase, which is something the GameCube never did (it's biggest increase year over year was a "healthy 5%...), so it should be farther from the GameCube/Xbox percentage. 65% seems like a good percentage. 60% would be dead center (15 higher than 44%, 15 lower than 75%). I suppose that's the only part I cannot give any decent evidence for.

So for 360, LTD sales would be as follows:
1st Year (given): 5.76 million
2nd Year (gieven): 7.91 million, increase of 37%
3rd Year (estimate): 10 million, estimated 11% increase (from PS2 trends), though raised (360 started slow) to 25% increase
4th Year (estimate): 7.5 million, a decrease of 25% (first Xbox 4th year sales decline)
5th Year (estimate): 3.92 million, decrease of 44% (comparable to GC and Xbox)
Total After 5 Years: 35.09 million

Again, I hit 35 million by using numbers that I get from past trends.

Obviously if we used slightly higher numbers for the declining years, maybe the average of PS2 and Xbox decline, which would be roughly 18% decline for the 4th year, and then only maybe 20% decline (more decline than the PS2, much less than the Xbox and GameCube), we would get something like...

4th year: 8.2 million (18% decrease)
5th Year: 6.56 million (20% decrease)
Total: 38.43 million

Still within the 35 million

Also, 5th year is actually be Nov 2009 to Nov 2010 

Also, 36-24 is 12, not 8, so you're missing 4 million there.

1st Year: Nov 2005 to Nov 2006
2nd Year: Nov 2006 to Nov 2007
3rd Year: Nov 2007 to Nov 2008
4th Year: Nov 2008 to Nov 2009
5th year: Nov 2009 to Nov 2010
6th Year: Nov 2010 to Nov 2011
7th year: Nov 2011 to Nov 2012

Let's say Microsoft does sell a little better over the last few years (though if you take bigger decreases than what I have used for arguements sake, it'll turn out the same), here would be 6th and 7th year sales, using PS2 numbers

6th Year: Roughly 25% decrease: 4.92 million
7th Year: Roughly 25% decrease: 3.69 million
Total After 7 Years (using PS2 sales trends): About 43 million

Using slightly lower PS2 sales (since we all agree 360 is no PS2, right?)

6th Year: Roughly 35% decrease: 4.26 million
7th Year: Roughly 45% decrease: 2.34 million
Total: About 41 million

Either way I still think 35 million is a good guess, since the PS3 will probably be taking some of the 360's market.

Edit: The 7th year would be after the release of the next gen consoles, according to your date (Nov. 2011), so ... yeah. I'll do ranges to make everyone happy.

Ranges:

Wii: 120 million+ (depends on increased supply, lifespan, etc)
PS3: 30 million to 40 million
360: 35 million to 45 million

 While this sounds like a logical point it really misses a major point. The DS wasn't all that great at launch, the DS Lite however was. So to pretend the DS and DS lite are the same system and the Wii will go on and start to sell even more like the Lite did would be misleading. if you eliminated all the regular DS sales, and just put the Ds against the Wii, or only started counting Ds sales after the launch of the Lite you'll notice the DS is pantsing the Wii. Plus alot of people like myself bought a regular DS and then a Lite, so it doubled up on alot of sales. Plus since it's a handheld system alot of households have more then one. (my house has 4 of them) While we'd never buy multiple Wiis. 

I "think" the Nintendo Wii will win the console wars by tens of millions of units.