| Slimebeast said: What I don't understand is why u say that the X360 will have reached 65% of it's lifetimes sales by the end of it's 3rd year. Why not 50% or 55%? That doesn't make it a PS2. Putting at 65%, and since most ppl estimates it's 2008 sales to be 7-8 mill, that would give the X360 by EOY 2008 23-24 mill total and by end of gen 36 mill total. So, if we spread those 36-24 mill=8 mill on the years 2009, 2010 and 2011 (Sony won't have a new console released before Nov '11, thats why 2011 is regarded as end of this gen) we get something like 4.5+2.5+1 mill (really awful sales), which would mean that X360 is practically dead already in 2009. |
Exactly. You know the GameCube only sold 1.5 million in it's 5th year? The Xbox only sold 1 million in it's final year. Of course, the Wii was release very close to the GameCubes 5th year in NA, so I suppose that's a reason. Also, the 360 was launched nearly 4 years to the day that the Xbox was launched, so 5th year sales would be very bad for it. I use 65% because though the 360 is not a PS2, it's also not a GameCube (nor an Xbox, since it should have a lifespan slightly longer). This is how it looks, as simple as I can put it:
PS2 LTD to Lifetime Sales, at the end of it's third year: 44%
GameCube/Xbox LTD to Lifetime Sales, at the end of it's third year: ~75%
Since the 360 is not a PS2, it will have sold more LTD:Lifetime at the end of the 3rd year, closer to the GameCube and Xbox percentage. It is not, however, a GameCube, seeing that it has outsold it the second year, and actually had an increase, which is something the GameCube never did (it's biggest increase year over year was a "healthy 5%...), so it should be farther from the GameCube/Xbox percentage. 65% seems like a good percentage. 60% would be dead center (15 higher than 44%, 15 lower than 75%). I suppose that's the only part I cannot give any decent evidence for.
So for 360, LTD sales would be as follows:
1st Year (given): 5.76 million
2nd Year (gieven): 7.91 million, increase of 37%
3rd Year (estimate): 10 million, estimated 11% increase (from PS2 trends), though raised (360 started slow) to 25% increase
4th Year (estimate): 7.5 million, a decrease of 25% (first Xbox 4th year sales decline)
5th Year (estimate): 3.92 million, decrease of 44% (comparable to GC and Xbox)
Total After 5 Years: 35.09 million
Again, I hit 35 million by using numbers that I get from past trends.
Obviously if we used slightly higher numbers for the declining years, maybe the average of PS2 and Xbox decline, which would be roughly 18% decline for the 4th year, and then only maybe 20% decline (more decline than the PS2, much less than the Xbox and GameCube), we would get something like...
4th year: 8.2 million (18% decrease)
5th Year: 6.56 million (20% decrease)
Total: 38.43 million
Still within the 35 million
Also, 5th year is actually be Nov 2009 to Nov 2010
