| Slimebeast said: Stever89 After all your data analysis it's a little strange you come up with no more than 35 mill X360s and PS3s. There's 4 more years left of this gen you know. Only 6 mill/year?? And 150 mill Wiis is almost JohnLucas crazyness... |
150 million isn't that bad. Especially with all the non-gamers...
And it's after my analysis (that you should read) is that the generation really only has 2 more years (and the 360 only has 1), because you reach the peak at the 3rd year. Better selling consoles (PS2) declined and sold roughly 89 million by the end of the 5th year, 75% of the total lifetime sales (117 million or so). The GameCube and Xbox (relatively bad selling consoles, wouldn't you agree) sold nearly 100% of their total lifetime sales by the end of the 5th year, and actually sold almost 75% in the first 3 years! That means, if the Xbox sells another 10 million, an increase, that's 23 million LTD, if that's roughtly 75% of the total sales, it'll only reach 30 million. The PS2 sold 44% of it's lifetime total by the end of the 3rd year, so that would place the 360 at 52 million. This is only if the 360 sells 10 million this year. And we don't think the 360 is any PS2 do we? I would say that by the end of the 3rd year, it should have sold probably closer to 65% total lifetime sales, so that's in the range of 35 million. The PS3 (without any 2nd year data) is tracking the 360 very closely (better in Japan and Others, but less in NA), so I would say 35 million for the PS3 right now is a good estimate. After this year things will change (obviously).
So yes, it might seem strange, but since no one has downloaded the updated files I have made available, and only 4 people downloaded the old version, and you weren't there discussing those charts when I posted them, I assume you are not one of them, I can assume you haven't looked at the sales as closely as I have, and thus cannot understand where my estimates come from. And like I said... I don't like making predictions. And in the end, it's important to look at increasing/decreasing markets. The Others region has huge potential. The Japan region shrunk last generation compared to the previous generation. Not by much, but still shrunk. These are trends I'd like to take into account. But only after you understand these crazy amount of numbers and percentages and how they all effect (or affect?) the market, can you make practical predictions. Without PS3 2nd year sales (and Wii 2nd year sales for that matter), we cannot make practical predictions for any consoles (even 360, since it will see obvious competition from the other consoles).
So right now, I feel any reasonable prediction, are acceptable. Even crazy ones (Wii 200+ million) might not be as far off as everyone things, but the point is that you have to take into account: console lifespan (high would be 7+ years), manufacturing ability (in order to get to 200 million in 7 years, that's 28 million a year, or roughly 2.3 million a month, not far off for Nintendo), sales trends over time (such that 3rd year is the peak almost certainly), etc.
Using PS2 increases on the Wii for the first 5 years, sales go like this:
1st Year: 14.8 million
2nd Year: 20.72 million (40% increase)
3rd year: 23 million (11% increase)
4th Year: 19.78 million (14% decrease)
5th Year: 19 million (4% decrease)
Now that's only the first 5 years of the PS2 (using Wii first year sales, and PS2 increase year over year percentages). Total: 97.3 million PS2 at this time: 87 million
The PS2 sold 75% of lifetime sales by this point. Using that figure for the Wii, the Wii should sell: 130 million.
Now since I don't have data for over 5 years (not that I couldn't get it), but that's what you get from that point.
In the end, 150 million doesn't sound too hard. Depends on Japan's growth/decline and Others almost certain growth, and NA most likely positve (though maybe small) growth.
Everyone, do yourself a favor and look at my comparisons. If you don't wish to now, I'm working on a slideshow, which should make it easier to read and understand. This is for your benefit.
Edit: I gave reasons for my predictions, using past trends to do so. I used no numbers that are not available to everyone (who reads my comparisons, esp. the excel sheet. lol), and I never brought up one game or price cut. I am THAT good. And for the guess on 360 3rd year sales, I simply used PS2 year over year increase for 3rd year (11%), and upped it due to what I believe is a slow start (due perhaps to people waiting for the PS3), to 10 million, which is a 25% increase, very generous I would say.
@TWRoO: Added you as well (I didn't seem to have the request?)
