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Forums - Sales Discussion - Who do you think will win the console wars?

swyggi on 22 January 2008
No one has ever given a convincing argument for this, the NES was a gen behind gaming PC's at launch it lasted 20 years in japan (20 years), 10 years in NA, why would Wii have only a six year lifespan


The NES era was from 1985-1989. People still play their original NES even to this day, but that doesn't mean the era is or was still going on. A console's gen is over when games are done being made on it.

This will only take a moment of your time. *steals your watch*

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OriGin on 22 January 2008

It's already over... Nintendo won.

And once Wii Fit comes out everywhere else but Japan things will continue to continue they way they are going currently.

The industry is not just going to 'shift' to the PS3 all of a sudden, no matter how much the PS3 fanboys want it to happen.



Slimebeast on 22 January 2008
Stever89 said:
Slimebeast said:
@Stever89

It's a known fact that PS3 sales almost exploded after the 2nd price drop. In both NA and Europe. And it was not about games, becuase there haven't been any AAA PS3 titles yet (not even close), and the so called Blu-ray effect can't have anything to do with the rise in sales since it was only a couple of weeks ago Warner killed HD DVD.

Someone plz make some of those graphs that this site offers! (to show the sharp upward curve after the oct intro of a 40GB SKU)

I'd say the drop from $500 to $400 made miracles, and increase in sales lies in the 30-50% ballpark.

If we'd see a let's say $249 X360 Pro soon, the WW weekly sales would rise to +150,000 units and the console would sell +10 million this year.

 EXPLODED? REALLY? Let's have a looksy.. Yes... I see it. I see an European launch. Good its there. I see a 40 GB launch, right near the end, at 10/08/07 or so. If that's not when the 40GB launched, then that might be another price drop. I don't actually see this explosion though. I mean, besides the European launch, which lasted a whole  2 weeks, the PS3 never even beat the Wii? Unless I'm looking at the graph wrong. If the graph shows weekly sales of the PS3, 360 and Wii, for the year 2007, and if it shows the PS3 and 360 hardly ever beating the Wii in weekly sales, then... uh no I'm  not looking at it wrong.

If you would download my comparisons (see my sig) it would take you to a world you don't yet know. And that's  a world with more numbers than you can possibly ever come to understand. But don't worry! I'm working on a slideshow, so you can just hit play, and it'll show you the data, the trends, and little things that make the consoles wars what they are, and then you will be knowledged. And then you will probably tell me to get a life. Don't worry, it's ok.

If you could give me the exact week of the price drop for the PS3, I could point it out.

Since I like being thorough, here's each region PS3 2007 sales but I still fail to see the explosion. Again, tell me what I'm doing wrong so I can know, or give me the week of the price drop so I can make a reasonable analysis. I'm not even joking. I hate being wrong, and if I am I want to know. I'm just saying I can't see the big boosts the price drops gave the PS3 that you are talking about.


http://vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=Wii&reg1=All&cons2=PS3&reg2=All&cons3=X360&reg3=All&start=39306&end=39404

There you have it. That timeline shows the 500--->$400 effect, more than 50% rise in sales. The price drop happened in early october (in US it was a week or 10 days later). (I didnt choose to show earlier than august, because you had a firesale effect then when the 60GB model went down to $500, because Sony wanted to get rid of the SKU).

 



Chrizum on 22 January 2008
swyggi said:
No one has ever given a convincing argument for this, the NES was a gen behind gaming PC's at launch it lasted 20 years in japan (20 years), 10 years in NA, why would Wii have only a six year lifespan


The NES era was from 1985-1989. People still play their original NES even to this day, but that doesn't mean the era is or was still going on. A console's gen is over when games are done being made on it.

Actually, games for the NES were still being released well into 1995. So yes, the NES had a lifespan of 10 years in the US, and even longer in Japan, but I don't know how much longer (probably between 12-20 years in total).



Stever89 on 22 January 2008
Avinash_Tyagi said:
As for the PS3 and Wii tieing, I could actually agree with you, since the Wii might only have a lifespan of 6 years (so there are 5 more years left, meaning end of 2012, possibly not until the end of 2013), whereas the PS3 probably will have a longer lifespan, depending on too many factors to know for sure. See my previous post (the long one) for more detail.


No one has ever given a convincing argument for this, the NES was a gen behind gaming PC's at launch it lasted 20 years in japan (20 years), 10 years in NA, why would Wii have only a six year lifespan

 That is very true. As I've said, so many things can happen, that it's way to early to know. Didn't Nintendo say the GameCube was a 10 year console? Yeah. More like 5 years 2 months at it's longest point between GC release and Wii release in a region. Compare that to the PS2 lifespan of 6 years 8 months between launches in a region (though it might have been longer if not for the Xbox360), and the Xbox lifespan of a mere 3 years 10 months between launches in the Others region.

At any rate... I said I could agree with him, not that I actually do. I'm not one that likes to predict... I'd rather look at past trends and ask "how can we compare those to what's happening?" That might be my business management peeking out.

I do believe that the Wii will win by a fair margin, but like I said... I'm not one to making predictions. I like sticking with sales trends and facts.

@ CrazzyMan, I cannot see how the PS3 could ever sell 100 million. In a year it only sold 7 million (that doesn't include the holidays, in which would obviously sell better), but by the end of it's second year (roughly Nov 17, 2008) it'll probably only be at 20 million, which is 13 million second year, a 85% increase, which is unheard of (the PS2 only managed increases of 40% it's second year. Then if the PS3 sells another 18 million the 3rd year (almost what the PS2 sold it's third year), which is an increase of 40%, when the PS2 only had a 11% increase it's third year, and we're at 38 million, and after the third year the HD market should be really large (according to a lot of Sony/HD people on this site), and that's why I gave it such large increases the first three years. But even if the 4th and 5th years, the sales will either level off and decline a bit, like the PS2 did, thats another 30 million (16 million for 4th year, 14 million for 5th), that's only 68 million. At this point the PS2 had sold 87 million units at this point, and only reached 120 million. So... I guess I proved you could be right. With crazy numbers. But you are crazzyman...

I really do encourage everyone to look at my comparisons. I know they can be mind blowing, but they really are worth it. Without second year sales for the PS3/Wii, it's not as good as it could be, and thus in 1 year from now (mark my words) I will release an updated version that contains 2nd year sales. Then we can discuss them until the world ends (2012). Or the generation ends. Which ever comes first. I will have a slideshow up in a few hours probably, so you can wait for that, since it'll be like watching a movie. lol



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swyggi on 22 January 2008
Actually, games for the NES were still being released well into 1995. So yes, the NES had a lifespan of 10 years in the US, and even longer in Japan, but I don't know how much longer (probably between 12-20 years in total).


Hmmm, can you guys show me a link? I've read in a lot of places that the NES gen was from 1985-1989 confirmed as the 4th generation of VG's. It's obvious that gens
can cross, but I just want to be sure.

This will only take a moment of your time. *steals your watch*

brute on 22 January 2008
RolStoppable said:
swyggi said:
No one has ever given a convincing argument for this, the NES was a gen behind gaming PC's at launch it lasted 20 years in japan (20 years), 10 years in NA, why would Wii have only a six year lifespan


The NES era was from 1985-1989. People still play their original NES even to this day, but that doesn't mean the era is or was still going on. A console's gen is over when games are done being made on it.

The NES was released in 1983 in Japan and games were still being made well into the '90s. Until 1993 there were still quite a lot of game releases for the NES, in 1995 it was pretty much over.

yeah one of my fav nes games was released in 93(kirby)



tag:"reviews only matter for the real hardcore gamer"

Stever89 on 22 January 2008
Slimebeast said:
Stever89 said:
Slimebeast said:
@Stever89

my response


http://vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=Wii&reg1=All&cons2=PS3&reg2=All&cons3=X360&reg3=All&start=39306&end=39404

There you have it. That timeline shows the 500--->$400 effect, more than 50% rise in sales. The price drop happened in early october (in US it was a week or 10 days later). (I didnt choose to show earlier than august, because you had a firesale effect then when the 60GB model went down to $500, because Sony wanted to get rid of the SKU).

 


Eh. Ok. I'll give it to ya. That's not any different than what I showed you, except you narrowed down the timeline, but since I didn't know the date of the pricecut, I couldn't really do. It definitely an increase, but it's too bad it came late in the year, because the holiday starts soon after. And that's the relesae of the 40GB right?

It's really not THAT much. When you said explosion, I kinda went crazy. Yes, 50% increase. Good increase, no doubt. We'll have to see what the weekly sales look like in a few weeks to see if that increase actual hold, sound good?

And looking at it this way shows the increase was only Others, before dropping a bit, then holiday season starts...



leo-j on 22 January 2008

@slimebeast

Notice the wii can die fast, or continue dominating, Im not as sure as I would be with a playstation console since a ps console has the history of selling 100M + no nintendo console as ever achieved this.



 

mM
Username2324 on 22 January 2008
Slimebeast said:
leo-j said:
wii: 50-110M
ps3:60-100M
X360:35-50M

Com'on Leo. You have such huge spans, it's ridiculous. Even an imbecill can say "between 50 and 110 mill" and be right in the end. With 8459 posts on these forums one would think you would know a little more about prediction skills than this.


 I find it funny you should talk about his prediction skills (granted he really shouldnt have such a large gap) since your own predictions for 2008 say that the 360 will sell more than the PS3, even though in the past few weeks alone the PS3 has outsold the 360, and there are still alot of great games on the way, where's your logic in that?