| Avinash_Tyagi said: As for the PS3 and Wii tieing, I could actually agree with you, since the Wii might only have a lifespan of 6 years (so there are 5 more years left, meaning end of 2012, possibly not until the end of 2013), whereas the PS3 probably will have a longer lifespan, depending on too many factors to know for sure. See my previous post (the long one) for more detail. No one has ever given a convincing argument for this, the NES was a gen behind gaming PC's at launch it lasted 20 years in japan (20 years), 10 years in NA, why would Wii have only a six year lifespan |
That is very true. As I've said, so many things can happen, that it's way to early to know. Didn't Nintendo say the GameCube was a 10 year console? Yeah. More like 5 years 2 months at it's longest point between GC release and Wii release in a region. Compare that to the PS2 lifespan of 6 years 8 months between launches in a region (though it might have been longer if not for the Xbox360), and the Xbox lifespan of a mere 3 years 10 months between launches in the Others region.
At any rate... I said I could agree with him, not that I actually do. I'm not one that likes to predict... I'd rather look at past trends and ask "how can we compare those to what's happening?" That might be my business management peeking out.
I do believe that the Wii will win by a fair margin, but like I said... I'm not one to making predictions. I like sticking with sales trends and facts.
@ CrazzyMan, I cannot see how the PS3 could ever sell 100 million. In a year it only sold 7 million (that doesn't include the holidays, in which would obviously sell better), but by the end of it's second year (roughly Nov 17, 2008) it'll probably only be at 20 million, which is 13 million second year, a 85% increase, which is unheard of (the PS2 only managed increases of 40% it's second year. Then if the PS3 sells another 18 million the 3rd year (almost what the PS2 sold it's third year), which is an increase of 40%, when the PS2 only had a 11% increase it's third year, and we're at 38 million, and after the third year the HD market should be really large (according to a lot of Sony/HD people on this site), and that's why I gave it such large increases the first three years. But even if the 4th and 5th years, the sales will either level off and decline a bit, like the PS2 did, thats another 30 million (16 million for 4th year, 14 million for 5th), that's only 68 million. At this point the PS2 had sold 87 million units at this point, and only reached 120 million. So... I guess I proved you could be right. With crazy numbers. But you are crazzyman...
I really do encourage everyone to look at my comparisons. I know they can be mind blowing, but they really are worth it. Without second year sales for the PS3/Wii, it's not as good as it could be, and thus in 1 year from now (mark my words) I will release an updated version that contains 2nd year sales. Then we can discuss them until the world ends (2012). Or the generation ends. Which ever comes first. I will have a slideshow up in a few hours probably, so you can wait for that, since it'll be like watching a movie. lol
