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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Handheld market still alive, 3DS sales are amazing.

KungKras said:
When they drop the 3D and increase battery life, you'll start to see that the handheld market isn't going anywhere.

Why drop a feature that pushes 3DS's visuals above the competition? Especially one where the user has the ability to adjust and disable it (I don't know why).



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Jumpin said:
KungKras said:
When they drop the 3D and increase battery life, you'll start to see that the handheld market isn't going anywhere.

Why drop a feature that pushes 3DS's visuals above the competition? Especially one where the user has the ability to adjust and disable it (I don't know why).

because it costs money.

But what I said about the battery life is the real thing to look for.



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3DS is gr8



Argh_College said:

Damn i really thought handhelds would have there days counted but 3DS is a beast and i think Nintendo will stay on the Handheld business by quite some time but it will compete alone there, well it will compete agaisnt SmartPhone but lets be realistic here:

. 3DS is a BEAST and it dominates Japan.

Contradiction. Unless you are saying the DS will compete with the 3DS?

I don't see Sony leaving the handheld market. As bad as Vita sales are, it'll be profitable eventually and those 3.7m Vita sales are in fact sales that could have gone to the 3DS......Vita wont' be discontinued. There's no reason for it to be.



VGKing said:
Argh_College said:

Damn i really thought handhelds would have there days counted but 3DS is a beast and i think Nintendo will stay on the Handheld business by quite some time but it will compete alone there, well it will compete agaisnt SmartPhone but lets be realistic here:

. 3DS is a BEAST and it dominates Japan.

Contradiction. Unless you are saying the DS will compete with the 3DS?

I don't see Sony leaving the handheld market. As bad as Vita sales are, it'll be profitable eventually and those 3.7m Vita sales are in fact sales that could have gone to the 3DS......Vita wont' be discontinued. There's no reason for it to be.

vgpach.. opps!! Vgking beware remember the things you say tend to have a contrary efect in the real world.



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Soundwave said:
cusman said:
Pineapple said:

It's going to be the weakest handheld year since the 2005.

2005: 20.6 million (DS 10.6 million, PsP 9 million). Likely to be a bit higher due to the GBA still selling a bit.

2006: 30 million (DS 20.5 million, PsP 9.5 million)

2007: 42 million (DS 29.5 million, PsP 12.8 million)

2008: 44 million (DS 29.5 million, PsP 13 million)

2009: 37 million (DS 27 million, PsP 9 million)

2010: 30 million (DS 21 million, PsP 9 million)

2011: 30 million (3DS 13.25 million, DS 9 million, PsP 7 million, Vita 0.5 million)

2012: 20 million (3DS 11 million, DS 3 million, PsP 3 million, Vita 3 million). Plus whatever they sell the next few weeks.

 

In other words, the handheld market is the weakest it has been since the DS launched. Considering 2005 lacks GBA sales, it's likely 2005 was actually higher than 2012.

 

However, the reason for the drop isn't necessarily smartphones. The total revenue for smartphone games is at just 2 billion dollars a year, while the handheld market is still well above 10 billion.

It's less that the smartphones have stolen the market, and more that the 3DS simply doesn't have the appeal of the DS, and the Vita is nowhere near the appeal of the PsP.

The decrease is due to internal problems, rather than external. Which means there's still plenty of time to turn it around.

I think the problem is simply economy or shift in median age of people or something along those lines leading to less money available to spend on dedicated portable gaming. Could also simply be that people are still content to be playing their DS with the strong software support. Could also be that home console gaming is just so vastly better now that...

Could be time/money eaten up by the SmartPhone adoptions but I think that is least likely here... I mean honestly who games on the SmartPhones as the norm? No... the buttons and controls are needed to have the best "feeling" games. Just touch and gyro alone are not enough for any of the deeper game designs.


I think what's hard for some people to understand is most people really don't care about having a full blown console style experience in a handheld game.

It's like going into a McDonalds and complaining there isn't a steak dinner on the menu. That's not what people want when they go to a fast food joint.

On the road, most people are quite happy with smartphones eating up all their free time, not just with simple games, but you can browse the internet, Twitter, Instagram, text message, watch some TV episodes, and maybe play a little Angry Birds or Cut the Rope.

If they want to play a "serious" game for a lot of people ... that's what their home console is for. Most people aren't so addicted to gaming that they can't go a few hours away from their home console to get their gaming fix, lol.

The difference was in the past, you really didn't have these options. If you wanted any entertainment on the go, basically your choice was playing games on a Game Boy/PSP/DS or carrying around a music-focused iPod (or before that, gasp, a Discman or Walkman). Your cell phone maybe played a crappy version of Tetris at best or Snake.

Different times. You may care about having a proper d-pad/analog/buttons to play games away from the house. Most people don't. Most people don't have like 30+ minutes of free time to sit uniterrupted playing a video game when they leave the house anyway.

While your point initially seems like a good one, I think you're looking at it wrong.

There are obviously more people interested in non-gaming while travelling than travelling. There are also most likely more people doing slight bits of gaming on the Iphone than there ever will be people in the handheld market. However, that doesn't mean that

A) There's much of an interest - or profit - in the phone market from high-profile game makers

Or that

B) That the handheld market has to decrease in size.

 

A) should be fairly obvious, but I'll explain it anyway. People don't spend money on apps on their smartphones. The average spending on apps a year is 3 dollars. I don't have any actual statistics for how much of that is on gaming, but the Business Insider article I have it from (http://read.bi/Vbludj ) suggests that it's roughly two thirds of the total. So 2 dollars a year.

You won't see high profile games on the smartphones, simply because people don't spend enough money on them. This might change in the future, but there's also a large chance it won't. The smartphone gaming market is still very small compared to the regular one.

 

B) is partly derived from A, and partly independant.

The smartphone vs handheld competition is very similar to the Wii vs HD consoles one. The Wii expanded the market to the side of the undedicated gamer, but the HD consoles didn't suffer. The Ps360 is looking to sell as much - if not more than - the PS2+XBox.

Similarly, the smartphones are dragging new people into gaming. But that doesn't mean they're stealing the handheld gamers any more than the Wii did the PS360 ones.

 

You could also draw an analogy to piracy here. The people who commit piracy are, interestingly, usually the ones who also spend the most on gaming (or films, or music, if that's what they're pirating). They use piracy for the games they wouldn't spend their money on, but spend their money on the games they feel are worth their money. I'm not saying I agree with the logic, but that seems to be how it is.

The same applies for the smartphones. People happily play free games on their Iphone - 89% of all app downloads are free, so the vast majority of games should be as well - but that doesn't mean they're not willing to pay for the other games.

 

While your argument makes logically sense, it goes against history on these subjects. All-around products, or broader-appeal products rarely eliminate or heavily damage the dedicated ones.



VGKing said:
Argh_College said:

Damn i really thought handhelds would have there days counted but 3DS is a beast and i think Nintendo will stay on the Handheld business by quite some time but it will compete alone there, well it will compete agaisnt SmartPhone but lets be realistic here:

. 3DS is a BEAST and it dominates Japan.

Contradiction. Unless you are saying the DS will compete with the 3DS?

I don't see Sony leaving the handheld market. As bad as Vita sales are, it'll be profitable eventually and those 3.7m Vita sales are in fact sales that could have gone to the 3DS......Vita wont' be discontinued. There's no reason for it to be.

 

Flawed I own a Vita and a 3DS so Vita sales aren't necessarily lost 3DS sales, as a Vita owner the fact that the platform is struggling is plenty reason to discount even if some people want to remain blind to it, the's no saviour here for Vita coming from anywhere else but Sony themselves and them not discounting it will further hurt the platform. Could care less about how much the tech costs them because that was their own choice and the should of been an immediate plan B incase things didn't go to plan, Vita maybe more powerful and good tech like it's predecessor was at it's time but it hasn't retained the situational advantages and things are only going to get worse over the next few years if Sony doesn't step in.



kitler53 said:
Viper1 said:
kitler53 said:
POE said:
kitler53 said:
3DS is going to end its second year down YoY despite not being on the market a full year in 2011. the dedicated handheld market is still alive but it is far from amazing which is especially true when you look anywhere that isn't japan.

the days for dedicated handhelds are numbered.

No it´s not.

yes it will.

Looks like it only needs to average 700k each week over the next 3.   It just did 682k and the next 2 weeks will be bigger.  It shouldn't have a problem averaging 800k+ over that period.


that last week of the year will see a signifant drop (post holidays in the western world).   in that last week of the year 3DS did  about 550k last if i remember right.  if 3DS continues on it's current level of being down YoY on the week for the last 3 weeks my forcast has it miss the mark by about 100k units.  that's right, i ran the numbers.  it'll be close either way but 3DS has to be above 861k both this and next week to average out correctly for the typical drop on that last week of the year.

Somewhat surprisingly, Kitler seems to be correct here. I thought he was off until I actually checked myself,

Last year, the 3DS saw a 15% increase from the week ending 10th December to the next, and then a 16% increase the next week. Followed by a 62.5% drop.

If the same happened this year, we would see

Next week: 784k
The week after that: 910k
The next week: 341k

Total: 2026k

The 3DS needs another 2155k to reach its 2011 sales. In other words, if it tracks exactly as it did last year, it'll end 129k off.

And, judging by how the 3DS has been tracking so far this holiday season - with a smaller holiday boost than normal - it's actually seeming more likely that it will fall more than 130k short than less.

That is, unless VGChartz counts the next week as well. I'm not completely sure how VGChartz counts the years. It might count the fourth week too, and if it does, the 3DS' 2012 will be larger than its 2011. That's pretty much the only way I can see that happening, though.



3DS fighting the good fight,i still see a future for the vita in japan with games and a pricecut but this handheld gen has a long way to go to avoid the inevitable flop threads regardless what they sell



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Solid-Stark said:
Sure it's still alive, but there won't be room for dedicated handhelds in the near future. (Perhaps next gen)

3DS is set to sell less than DS (Half?) and the Vita is set to sell considerably a lot less than the PSP (Sony's last handheld console).

Smartphone and Tablet App games and gaming will take over.

You say this despite the 3DS outselling the first year of the DS?



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