kitler53 said:
Viper1 said:
kitler53 said:
POE said:
kitler53 said:
3DS is going to end its second year down YoY despite not being on the market a full year in 2011. the dedicated handheld market is still alive but it is far from amazing which is especially true when you look anywhere that isn't japan.
the days for dedicated handhelds are numbered. |
No it´s not.
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yes it will.
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Looks like it only needs to average 700k each week over the next 3. It just did 682k and the next 2 weeks will be bigger. It shouldn't have a problem averaging 800k+ over that period.
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that last week of the year will see a signifant drop (post holidays in the western world). in that last week of the year 3DS did about 550k last if i remember right. if 3DS continues on it's current level of being down YoY on the week for the last 3 weeks my forcast has it miss the mark by about 100k units. that's right, i ran the numbers. it'll be close either way but 3DS has to be above 861k both this and next week to average out correctly for the typical drop on that last week of the year.
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Somewhat surprisingly, Kitler seems to be correct here. I thought he was off until I actually checked myself,
Last year, the 3DS saw a 15% increase from the week ending 10th December to the next, and then a 16% increase the next week. Followed by a 62.5% drop.
If the same happened this year, we would see
Next week: 784k
The week after that: 910k
The next week: 341k
Total: 2026k
The 3DS needs another 2155k to reach its 2011 sales. In other words, if it tracks exactly as it did last year, it'll end 129k off.
And, judging by how the 3DS has been tracking so far this holiday season - with a smaller holiday boost than normal - it's actually seeming more likely that it will fall more than 130k short than less.
That is, unless VGChartz counts the next week as well. I'm not completely sure how VGChartz counts the years. It might count the fourth week too, and if it does, the 3DS' 2012 will be larger than its 2011. That's pretty much the only way I can see that happening, though.
