I can't see the WiiU beating the Wii again between now and March

If it stays around this pace it will between 5.5 and 5 million (I'm expecting it to level off similarly to the Wii during the next few week so selling between 200-to-250k.

EDIT: I will add a bit more.

There are two weeks left of 2012, I'm guessing 600k more in those weeks, so the sales will be 2.4million, leaving 3.1 million in 12 weeks (Nintendo's Q4). To do their 5.5million they would need 259k a week. So they will miss it but only but 100k-to-200k.

err nevermind I forgot I posted yesterday.

I think your estimates are pretty reasonable.  I would like to add 2 points.

1) There are 13 weeks in 2013 so your number should be more like 239k per week next year.  If they are somehow able to get 750k the last 2 weeks this year (admittedly optimistic) they would only need 227k per week next year to match the projected numbers.

2) Nintendo could exceed profit expectations due to currency movement regardless.  Reggie stated one game makes the U profitable but add 10% to euro sales and 7% to NA sales and the hardware could be breakeven day one in those regions.  By March 31st when the Wii U potentially sells more than 360 & PS3 did over the same launch time frame COMBINED and Nintendo returns to profit; there will be a flood of troll tears.

I'd like to note that Nintendo's forecast is for units shipped, not units sold to consumers.

There is a transit delay between a units ordered and a unit on store shelves (1 week for Japan, 2 for the US and 3 weeks for Europe).

Nintendo can easily make their shipment target even if the sold to consumer numbers are a few hundred thousand short.

it will do okay, wait alittle bit more heavy hitters are going to be announced an them BAM! 100 million hah
and never underestimate new super mario bros

I bought the Wii U and Love it. I think it adds to the wii and makes it much better. I like the pad and think the idea was good. It might not sell as well as the Wii but I also think people wanted the 32 GB hardrive and I was one. I waited until I could pick one up. They are in short supply and maybe they should have just launched that.

That ratio is a fantastic observation. Bravo.

Tagging it

Well the current Famitsu/Media Create numbers from Japan for last week are in, at 122,000 Wii U's sold.

That's a seriously troubling sign.  Historically even for Japan, that's the biggest sales week of the year.  For example, the Wii went up 40% in sales that same week in 2006.

Globally last week should be the biggest week yet for Wii U, and it should be the biggest week until next holiday season.  If it fails to do this, the Wii U is in real trouble.  It's a reliable gauge of the future.

If those 5.5 ratios are correct, which they seem to have a good chance to be - then the 4 million number seems about right.

There is ZERO catalyst in the market place right now for people to buy a Wii U.  The marketing sucks. The name Wii U sucks. The Wii U kiosks in stores suck. The launch games aren't enough.  There's bad publicity everywhere.  No big gaming sites or tech groups are telling the public to go buy the machine.  The Fiscal Cliff's about to hit, and consumer disposable cash is tight as it is, and Nintendo's not making any big announcements.  

It's a perfect storm of poor sales, and it makes me think something is rotten in Denmark.