Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Current vs Last, a Console Sales Story (COMPLETE!)

Final Smash: Should somone one do this at the start of every gen?

yes 65 75.58%
 
no 3 3.49%
 
show me the money! 7 8.14%
 
Total:75
OceanJ said:

Well the current Famitsu/Media Create numbers from Japan for last week are in, at 122,000 Wii U's sold.

That's a seriously troubling sign.  Historically even for Japan, that's the biggest sales week of the year.  For example, the Wii went up 40% in sales that same week in 2006.

Globally last week should be the biggest week yet for Wii U, and it should be the biggest week until next holiday season.  If it fails to do this, the Wii U is in real trouble.  It's a reliable gauge of the future.

If those 5.5 ratios are correct, which they seem to have a good chance to be - then the 4 million number seems about right.

There is ZERO catalyst in the market place right now for people to buy a Wii U.  The marketing sucks. The name Wii U sucks. The Wii U kiosks in stores suck. The launch games aren't enough.  There's bad publicity everywhere.  No big gaming sites or tech groups are telling the public to go buy the machine.  The Fiscal Cliff's about to hit, and consumer disposable cash is tight as it is, and Nintendo's not making any big announcements.  

It's a perfect storm of poor sales, and it makes me think something is rotten in Denmark.


But... but the Wii U had 126k sales in Japan last week, and so a drop of 4k is bad?  I'm not sure what we're getting at here.



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What is Nintendo forecasting: 5.5 million shipped or 5.5 million sold to consumers. More than likely shipped and I think they should be able to make that forecast.



nnodley said:
What is Nintendo forecasting: 5.5 million shipped or 5.5 million sold to consumers. More than likely shipped and I think they should be able to make that forecast.


That would leave a fairly large excess stock though, making it near impossible to ship more consoles for a good while into the 2nd quarter. They can't simply force their hardware into retail channels to make the forecast, if the demand is not there and units aren't moving, the shipments have to taper off. Nintendo will not make 5.5 million shipped by March, and certainly not sold to end user. 4-4.5 million is a lot more realistic as a goal right now (4 million end user sales and 4.5 million shipped).



Mummelmann said:
nnodley said:
What is Nintendo forecasting: 5.5 million shipped or 5.5 million sold to consumers. More than likely shipped and I think they should be able to make that forecast.


That would leave a fairly large excess stock though, making it near impossible to ship more consoles for a good while into the 2nd quarter. They can't simply force their hardware into retail channels to make the forecast, if the demand is not there and units aren't moving, the shipments have to taper off. Nintendo will not make 5.5 million shipped by March, and certainly not sold to end user. 4-4.5 million is a lot more realistic as a goal right now (4 million end user sales and 4.5 million shipped).

5.5 million is a stretch, but I guess we will have to see how much the wii u sells in the last 2 weeks of the year.  They probably didn't see the bad europe sells coming, which will probably be the reason for them to not reach 5.5 million.



Mummelmann said:
nnodley said:
What is Nintendo forecasting: 5.5 million shipped or 5.5 million sold to consumers. More than likely shipped and I think they should be able to make that forecast.


That would leave a fairly large excess stock though, making it near impossible to ship more consoles for a good while into the 2nd quarter. They can't simply force their hardware into retail channels to make the forecast, if the demand is not there and units aren't moving, the shipments have to taper off. Nintendo will not make 5.5 million shipped by March, and certainly not sold to end user. 4-4.5 million is a lot more realistic as a goal right now (4 million end user sales and 4.5 million shipped).

Well, 4 Mio. end user sales in 5 months still is far from bad^^



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KHlover said:
Mummelmann said:
nnodley said:
What is Nintendo forecasting: 5.5 million shipped or 5.5 million sold to consumers. More than likely shipped and I think they should be able to make that forecast.


That would leave a fairly large excess stock though, making it near impossible to ship more consoles for a good while into the 2nd quarter. They can't simply force their hardware into retail channels to make the forecast, if the demand is not there and units aren't moving, the shipments have to taper off. Nintendo will not make 5.5 million shipped by March, and certainly not sold to end user. 4-4.5 million is a lot more realistic as a goal right now (4 million end user sales and 4.5 million shipped).

Well, 4 Mio. end user sales in 5 months still is far from bad^^

No, far from it, but still a wide margin from 5.5 million. If they miss their very first forecast by that much, it would indicate that they completely misread the market, especially since their last 2-3 fiscal year forecasts have been on the conservative side.

Nintendo have to pull a rabbit out of the hat if they want any kind of momentum going into 2013, and spring/summer in particular.



Wii U sales estimations a little bit on the optimistic side, like ninty figures always are. They will have a bad January in Japan imo since ninty release calender is completely empty in the month.
These figures don't say anything, wiiu is cheaper than what main versions of present gen consoles were 6 years ago (more so if adjusted to inflation ). People will see more incentive to buy a console that has enormous library of great looking games over a new console except for ninty fans imo. But its too early to say anything. We will know WiiUs future next year.
Happy New Year!



The 5.5 million projection is not consumer sales but shipment figures.

Can we all please grasp this fact before we post the next 6 pages?



The rEVOLution is not being televised

Viper1 said:
The 5.5 million projection is not consumer sales but shipment figures.

Can we all please grasp this fact before we post the next 6 pages?


Can you please grasp the fact that some of us know this and have already said as much?

We're not all as dense as you would like us to be, I don't feel silly at all for doubting the Wii U's selling power and I know I'm not alone. The whole launch and project thus far has gone more or less exactly like I thought and said it would. 5.5 million shipped will not happen at this rate, they would have to stuff the channel properly, which is all but impossible seeing as how most stores don't even have a dedicated Wii U section today.



Mummelmann said:
Viper1 said:
The 5.5 million projection is not consumer sales but shipment figures.

Can we all please grasp this fact before we post the next 6 pages?


Can you please grasp the fact that some of us know this and have already said as much?

We're not all as dense as you would like us to be, I don't feel silly at all for doubting the Wii U's selling power and I know I'm not alone. The whole launch and project thus far has gone more or less exactly like I thought and said it would. 5.5 million shipped will not happen at this rate, they would have to stuff the channel properly, which is all but impossible seeing as how most stores don't even have a dedicated Wii U section today.

Most stores don't?  Where?   Poland?



The rEVOLution is not being televised