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KHlover said:
Mummelmann said:
nnodley said:
What is Nintendo forecasting: 5.5 million shipped or 5.5 million sold to consumers. More than likely shipped and I think they should be able to make that forecast.


That would leave a fairly large excess stock though, making it near impossible to ship more consoles for a good while into the 2nd quarter. They can't simply force their hardware into retail channels to make the forecast, if the demand is not there and units aren't moving, the shipments have to taper off. Nintendo will not make 5.5 million shipped by March, and certainly not sold to end user. 4-4.5 million is a lot more realistic as a goal right now (4 million end user sales and 4.5 million shipped).

Well, 4 Mio. end user sales in 5 months still is far from bad^^

No, far from it, but still a wide margin from 5.5 million. If they miss their very first forecast by that much, it would indicate that they completely misread the market, especially since their last 2-3 fiscal year forecasts have been on the conservative side.

Nintendo have to pull a rabbit out of the hat if they want any kind of momentum going into 2013, and spring/summer in particular.