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Forums - Sales - I Believe PS3 Will Be The Number One Console This Gen With 115 Million Shipped. And You? (Sales > My Prediction Right Now)

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Max King of the Wild on 03 December 2012
Jay520 said:
This is ridiculous. It won't come close to 115m.

It's currently at 70m after 6 years selling at an average pace of ~11.4m consoles per year.

It needs to ship another 45m to reach 115m. At best, the PS3 will have another 4 years of life (and that's being extremely optimistic).

In order for it to sell 45m within 4 years, it would have to average ~11.3m consoles per year.

Considering it'll only sell 11-12m this year and even less next year, there's no way it'll average over 11m for the next 4 years. It's final 4 years aren't going to match its first 6 years.

And that's assuming it'll be on sale for the next 4 years. It may be discontinued. And if its not, it will only sell tiny amounts (4-5m per year) during 2014-2016 until it finally dies.

You should have just predicted 100m. It's an excellent milestone and is actually possible.

It will be on the market for longer than 4 more years. It still has a full year at least before the Ps4 is out and the Ps2 is still being shipped after 6 years of the Ps3 being out... and will probablly still sell after the ps4 launches. I expect the Ps2 to be discontinued a year after the Ps4 launches (unless Sony cant produce all 3 systems at the same time) but that would be 7-8 years after the Ps3 came out.



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gergroy on 03 December 2012
bananaking21 said:
gergroy said:
bananaking21 said:
gergroy said:
bananaking21 said:
what i really think will help PS3 sell after PS4 launches is PSN, there is no reason why indie developers would stop supporting PSN and making games for it. PS3 in a couple of years could be bought for 99$ and used to play indie games that cost about 5/10 bucks each. i think this will help move consoles after PS4 is launched and sony drops support. as for your prediction, i dont think so, maybe but i would say 95~105 million life time


I would agree if psn was really popular.  However, psn never caught on the same way xbl arcade did.  If anything, this is a reason why 360s might continue to sell. 


PSN is more popular than you think, its really established itself. also xbox live isnt free, it needs about 50 bucks a year which really doesnt help it in the situation i just said. but i do agree with you that the xbox will continue to sell as well. but i do believe that psn will have an advantage because its free and people are really underestimating it. also sony is backing up the free to play model with games like dust 514, that can prove to be a good reason to buy a PS3 later on and just play games like dust 514 for free


Uh, you are talking about downloadable games correct?  You dont have to pay for xbox live to buy downloadable games...

really? so you can actually buy a game from xbox, then not play it online? lol and both companies will benifit from their strong online stores. but talking about the xbox most of its consoles sold are in the US and the PS3 has the advantage in developing markets, when next gen consoles come out the US market will shift towards nex gen consoles and 360 sales will fall dramitcally, so will the ps3, but it will still manage to continue selling in developing markets where xbox live isnt as strong as it is in the US. and thats where i think PSN will have its effect. also as i said xbox live costs money and psn doesnt, usually when people buy consoles after the gen ended are people looking to play on the cheap side, and paying for xbox live and online functionality isnt really an attractive selling point

Ok, but you are talking about downloadable games.  How many psn or xbl arcade games have online multiplayer? And if they do, how many people actually use it?  If these cheap downloadable games are driving sales, I dont think online multiplayer is going to be a big factor here.

 Anyways, we are getting off topic here.  The point is I dont see either of these features being a big selling point long term.  Look at the wii, it has an indie games market that was very popular, but its sales are dropping off massively.  The wii is cheap at $99, but you dont see that many people buying it just for downloadable games.



Heavenly_King on 03 December 2012

I the PS3 will be the best selling console WW too :)



Open World-Survival-Game Days Gone

NobleTeam360 on 03 December 2012

I would have to say 95-100 million.



IIIIITHE1IIIII on 03 December 2012

No way in hell, and even if it actually happened that would be bad news for PS4. It would be like the 3DS vs DS scenario except way, WAY worse.

Sony won't be able to develop system sellers for PS3/PS4 and PSV, and I'm confident they would rather invest in the future than hang on to the past.



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Heavenly_King on 03 December 2012
bananaking21 said:
what i really think will help PS3 sell after PS4 launches is PSN, there is no reason why indie developers would stop supporting PSN and making games for it. PS3 in a couple of years could be bought for 99$ and used to play indie games that cost about 5/10 bucks each. i think this will help move consoles after PS4 is launched and sony drops support. as for your prediction, i dont think so, maybe but i would say 95~105 million life time

I think that when they release GOW4, UC4, KZ4 for the PS4.  With crazy AAA quality gameplay, graphics, and story.   People that did not had a PS3 will be intrigued on how the previous games were. So I think Sony will need to release a bundle with a PS3 + GOW Saga + Uncharted TRilogy + KZ collection; all of that for $100 :D. And it will sell like crazy.



Open World-Survival-Game Days Gone

walsufnir on 03 December 2012
ethomaz said:

I don't expect nextbox next year too.



the thread is getting even better! perfect entertainment.



bananaking21 on 03 December 2012
gergroy said:
bananaking21 said:

Ok, but you are talking about downloadable games.  How many psn or xbl arcade games have online multiplayer? And if they do, how many people actually use it?  If these cheap downloadable games are driving sales, I dont think online multiplayer is going to be a big factor here.

 Anyways, we are getting off topic here.  The point is I dont see either of these features being a big selling point long term.  Look at the wii, it has an indie games market that was very popular, but its sales are dropping off massively.  The wii is cheap at $99, but you dont see that many people buying it just for downloadable games.


its not about how many games use the feature or not, its about the principal!

and PSN and Xbox live's networks are far more superior to the Wii's. and im not saying this will be the only reason the consoles will stay alive longer than people expect, im saying its going to be one of the reasons. PSN and xbox live add so much to the ps3 and xbox360 experience and i just believe it will help them in the long term as well



bananaking21 on 03 December 2012
Heavenly_King said:
bananaking21 said:
what i really think will help PS3 sell after PS4 launches is PSN, there is no reason why indie developers would stop supporting PSN and making games for it. PS3 in a couple of years could be bought for 99$ and used to play indie games that cost about 5/10 bucks each. i think this will help move consoles after PS4 is launched and sony drops support. as for your prediction, i dont think so, maybe but i would say 95~105 million life time

I think that when they release GOW4, UC4, KZ4 for the PS4.  With crazy AAA quality gameplay, graphics, and story.   People that did not had a PS3 will be intrigued on how the previous games were. So I think Sony will need to release a bundle with a PS3 + GOW Saga + Uncharted TRilogy + KZ collection; all of that for $100 :D. And it will sell like crazy.


your avatar is brutal, cheerful and disturbing all at the same time.

i dont think that will sell a lot in 2/3 years. that logic certainly didnt help the original xbox. halo 3 sold way better than halo1/2 and people didnt seem all that interested in playing the first two. even when they did a remake, it sold well, but not halo numbers. about 1.5 million. those people most probably are the people who played halo before and brought the remake for the good memories they had with the original. i think the same logic applies to your suggestion, a bundle like that would certainly help sales, but i dont think by a significat amount



DanneSandin on 03 December 2012
ethomaz said:

What's this model you're talking about? And what predictions have been used using this model?



I'm on Twitter @DanneSandin!

Furthermore, I think VGChartz should add a "Like"-button.