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Forums - Sales - I Believe PS3 Will Be The Number One Console This Gen With 115 Million Shipped. And You? (Sales > My Prediction Right Now)

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gergroy on 04 December 2012
GameAnalyser said:
ethomaz said:

4. JAPAN (VGC DATA)

PS3 VGC DATA PLUS MY ESTIMATE
YEAR MY PREDICITION MY CUMULATIVE SOLD  CUMULATIVE DIFF COMMENTS
2006  -  - 472,605 472,605 -
2007   - - 1,218,612 1,691,217 -
2008 -  - 1,065,808 2,757,025 -
2009 - - 1,829,784 4,586,809 -
2010 - - 1,553,638 6,140,447 -
2011 - - 1,521,847 7,662,294 -
2012 1,300,000
 9,000,000  * 25th Nov * 1,017,820  * 25th Nov * 8,680,114 -  
2013 1,200,000
 10,200,000        
2014 1,000,000
 11,200,000      
2015 600,000
 11,800,000
 

2016 400,000 12,200,000        
2017+ 300,000 12,500,000        


2013 as per the current trends and based on the data above will be the year when PS3 will have its highest peak. Then there will be a gradual decline, contrary to the higher numbers posted over the longer period above.


Huh? Based on current trends and the data above 2013 will be a peak year? Are you looking at the same data as me? It looks like the current trends and data above indicate that 2009 was the peak year for japan and that it has been in a slow decline since...



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gergroy on 04 December 2012
ethomaz said:
gergroy said:
uh yeah, I thought you were predicting the ps3 would sell 115 million... your tables add up to 92.6 million...

44.9 + 35.2 +12.5 =92.6...

So 20m for the rest of the world... seems fine for me .


That doesnt seem right, others is at 8.6 million right now with 6 years on the market...it would have to more than double in 4 years... That doesnt seem likely, but its your prediction...



gergroy on 04 December 2012
kowenicki said:
gergroy said:
GameAnalyser said:
ethomaz said:

4. JAPAN (VGC DATA)

PS3 VGC DATA PLUS MY ESTIMATE
YEAR MY PREDICITION MY CUMULATIVE SOLD  CUMULATIVE DIFF COMMENTS
2006  -  - 472,605 472,605 -
2007   - - 1,218,612 1,691,217 -
2008 -  - 1,065,808 2,757,025 -
2009 - - 1,829,784 4,586,809 -
2010 - - 1,553,638 6,140,447 -
2011 - - 1,521,847 7,662,294 -
2012 1,300,000
 9,000,000  * 25th Nov * 1,017,820  * 25th Nov * 8,680,114 -  
2013 1,200,000
 10,200,000        
2014 1,000,000
 11,200,000      
2015 600,000
 11,800,000
 

2016 400,000 12,200,000        
2017+ 300,000 12,500,000        


2013 as per the current trends and based on the data above will be the year when PS3 will have its highest peak. Then there will be a gradual decline, contrary to the higher numbers posted over the longer period above.


Huh? Based on current trends and the data above 2013 will be a peak year? Are you looking at the same data as me? It looks like the current trends and data above indicate that 2009 was the peak year for japan and that it has been in a slow decline since...

This is also why it will be wrong very soon.  He has it selling 300k by the end of the year in Japan.  It wont.  It sold slightly less than that in the same periood last year when it was selling at a higher rate and the WiiU didnt exist.

So 2012 is slightly too high

2013 is way too high

and 2014 is madness.


I agree, but the biggest problems with his predictions is that he doesnt think the next systems will launch next year.  I think a 2013 launch of the nextbox and ps4 is all but guaranteed at this point.  If that happens it pretty much destroys these predictions regardless...



ethomaz on 04 December 2012

This LE will help my numbers in Japan next year...



fedfed on 04 December 2012

simply no!



Switch!!!

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GameAnalyser on 04 December 2012
gergroy said:
GameAnalyser said:
ethomaz said:

4. JAPAN (VGC DATA)

PS3 VGC DATA PLUS MY ESTIMATE
YEAR MY PREDICITION MY CUMULATIVE SOLD  CUMULATIVE DIFF COMMENTS
2006  -  - 472,605 472,605 -
2007   - - 1,218,612 1,691,217 -
2008 -  - 1,065,808 2,757,025 -
2009 - - 1,829,784 4,586,809 -
2010 - - 1,553,638 6,140,447 -
2011 - - 1,521,847 7,662,294 -
2012 1,300,000
 9,000,000  * 25th Nov * 1,017,820  * 25th Nov * 8,680,114 -  
2013 1,200,000
 10,200,000        
2014 1,000,000
 11,200,000      
2015 600,000
 11,800,000
 

2016 400,000 12,200,000        
2017+ 300,000 12,500,000        


2013 as per the current trends and based on the data above will be the year when PS3 will have its highest peak. Then there will be a gradual decline, contrary to the higher numbers posted over the longer period above.


Huh? Based on current trends and the data above 2013 will be a peak year? Are you looking at the same data as me? It looks like the current trends and data above indicate that 2009 was the peak year for japan and that it has been in a slow decline since...

I missed to mention world-wide, not just in Japan. My bad. And why not in 2013? If you carefully analyze the data above on how there was a decline from 2007-2008 and the subsequent boost from 2008-09, there's a similar possibility lurking with Japanese super slim PS3 bundles. However predictions are based on trends and VGC data we get, I would rather not be too optimistic.



daveJ on 04 December 2012
gergroy said:
daveJ said:
kowenicki said:
daveJ said:

I have no doubts the PS3 will win this gen, but 115 might be 5 million to much, see my sig I predicted this back in 2009.
I predict its sales next year will be even better than this year, much stronger game lineup and probably a pricecut, though this depends on the YEN.

sales will not increase next year.

heres what you said a few days ago about PS3's black friday weeks sales

kowenicki said:

 

They will both be down.  I didnt say the 360 wouldnt.  People here think the PS3 will be up... zero chance of that.

now you were totally wrong with that, Im thinking you will be this time as well 

 

the ps3 was down wasn't it?  Last year they did something like 900k and this year they are around 700k... that is down right?

No, the PS3 sold more, see the thread entitled Black Friday Week Sales Prediction for the information.



All bow to me the VGChartz current reigning 3DS prediction champion 

 Bet with tbone51: Pokeon X & pokemon Y will not sell more than 8 million in 2013

 jarrod said:The Xbox360 or ps3 will not sell more than 75million units

July 2009 daveJ said: True the wii has a large lead now but by 2017 the most likely result will be 1. ps3 2. xbox360 3. wii <-- wii's successor launched in 2011 effectively killing sales of the wii

 2009 daveJ said: The wii will not break the 50% marketshare barrier it will go below the 40% marketshare barrier though in the future. VGChartz members: Impossible, youre an idiot that knows nothing about sales

forest-spirit on 04 December 2012

He said shipped. Nothing is stopping Sony from shipping 20m PS3's to a pit in the desert.



adriane23 on 04 December 2012

The Wii will be the only console this gen to reach over 105m (maybe). The PS3 will be lucky to get 95-100m and the 360 will probably bow out at about 90-93m.



I am the Playstation Avenger.

   

sales2099 on 04 December 2012

Last place dont become 1st.

They are welcome to take 2nd after the next gen is upon us, but not 1st.



Xbox: Best hardware, Game Pass best value, best BC, more 1st party genres and multiplayer titles.