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Forums - Sales Discussion - I Believe PS3 Will Be The Number One Console This Gen With 115 Million Shipped. And You? (Sales > My Prediction Right Now)

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anamme on 04 December 2012

IMO it depends on how well the new consoles are received. If nextbox and ps4 really take off, sales for this gen will be decimated.



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zhao3gold on 04 December 2012

Perhaps. But it doesn't mean PS3 has the same success as PS and PS2. The lifetime sales really doesn't tell a lot unless you choose to believe it.



zhao3gold on 04 December 2012

There are so many treads about PS3 will be Nr.1 of this gen or Wii will be surpassed by PS3 or 360 WW or in specific region. In my opinion, all these treads are meanless.

Commercial and pure sales wise, Wii is clear winner of this gen. To surpass it in 2014 or 2015 will not impact the gaming industry because at that time, our eyes will be focused on new consoles.

Continue selling PS3 or 360 in developing markets is irrelevant to the gaming industry.



ethomaz on 04 December 2012
gergroy said:
uh yeah, I thought you were predicting the ps3 would sell 115 million... your tables add up to 92.6 million...

44.9 + 35.2 +12.5 =92.6...

So 20m for the rest of the world... seems fine for me .



ethomaz on 04 December 2012
kowenicki said:

So you have changed your mind already. Lol.

You said 47m in Europe by end of 2016 originally.  Now its less in a year more.  Well you do like adjustments I guess, but huge adjustments after just 1 hour is a bit much.

This lot adds also up to 92m. So you expect 23m in others to make the 115m.

Ludicrous prediction.

I'll look at that European number and let you know how crazy it is.

I think I lowered my prediciton but not so much.

I used the shipped data for WW predicion because that's the official number I'll use for 115m but the breakdown per region I used VGC data (sales) for the things became more instersting.

So 47m is shipped data... I expect at least 1.5m on shelves for Europe in the end of PS3 life... so 45.5m sold on VGC... I lowered to 44.9m.

500k difference not that HUGE adjustment.



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the2real4mafol on 04 December 2012

It is possible, but it really depends on how long Sony continue to sell them for, if they are around for as long as PS2's are currently, then it should do it. But PS3 being #1 is less likely, but not impossible like it used to be, it really depends on long Wii is supported for, which shouldn't be for too long (no more than 3 years), since Wii U is already out



Xbox One, PS4 and Switch (+ Many Retro Consoles)

'When the people are being beaten with a stick, they are not much happier if it is called the people's stick'- Mikhail Bakunin

Prediction: Switch will sell better than Wii U Lifetime Sales by Jan 1st 2018

ethomaz on 04 December 2012
kowenicki said:
ethomaz said:
kowenicki said:
Its gone quiet...

I can picture Ethomaz now.... he has just run the Euro numbers and he is thinking... "oh shit!"

Nooooooooooooooooo... I just finished my job now... so I will check the numbers


So you did run the numbers and think "oh shit". You reduced the euro numbers massively. So now your total needs "others" numbers to sell double what it has sold there so far.

You went from this:

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=4933940

Ethomaz

Europe: Like you pointed out the PS3 is ready to outsell Wii in the next year (maybe 2014) but that's a future fact... only the end of the world could stop that to happen.

My lifetime prediction (2016): 47 million

to this within a few hours:

2016 2,300,000 43,300,000  

 and now you have rest of the world needing 24m, these currently stand at 8.5m.

The rest of the world sales is near 20m... not 24m.

I put 2016 but you understood the date is the end of PS3 life... I just wrote the random number... 2016... the predictions are in line one with other with a little adjustment (~500k).

Shipped: 47m (before) / 46.5m (now)
Sold: 45m



Jumpin on 04 December 2012

90 million is a stretch, that's over 20 million more units sold. The PS3 will need about 3-4 more years to achieve that without interference from a PS4. I am not sure why people think the PS3 will be on any store shelves in 2016. Are you counting second-hand store sales?



I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.

ethomaz on 04 December 2012

kowenicki said:

Right, whatever.  Its like the everchanging GT5 thread all over again.

In any event, this is fanciful and will prove to be so quite soon.  Its on the Crazzzzyman level.

I think I will miss the region targets but the worldwide targets will be close.



GameAnalyser on 04 December 2012
ethomaz said:

4. JAPAN (VGC DATA)

PS3 VGC DATA PLUS MY ESTIMATE
YEAR MY PREDICITION MY CUMULATIVE SOLD  CUMULATIVE DIFF COMMENTS
2006  -  - 472,605 472,605 -
2007   - - 1,218,612 1,691,217 -
2008 -  - 1,065,808 2,757,025 -
2009 - - 1,829,784 4,586,809 -
2010 - - 1,553,638 6,140,447 -
2011 - - 1,521,847 7,662,294 -
2012 1,300,000
 9,000,000  * 25th Nov * 1,017,820  * 25th Nov * 8,680,114 -  
2013 1,200,000
 10,200,000        
2014 1,000,000
 11,200,000      
2015 600,000
 11,800,000
 

2016 400,000 12,200,000        
2017+ 300,000 12,500,000        


2013 as per the current trends and based on the data above will be the year when PS3 will have its highest peak. Then there will be a gradual decline, contrary to the numbers posted over the longer period above.