With many people and specialists thinking on how the cellphones and android might destroy the consoles in the near or further future, it made me ask myself a question. If this really is the "last" generation of console, then why will there be more consoles then ever next gen. With the ouya, xbox8, orbis, wii u and the steambox. I feel like consoles aren't going no where. In fact, I feel like consoles are here to stay for a very very longtime with Microsoft and Nintendo atleast.

So, what's your take on this? Do you think this will be the last gen of consoles? 

"I feel like consoles aren't going no where. In fact, I feel like consoles are here to stay for a very very longtime with Microsoft and Nintendo atleast."

I agree. The console market will undoubtably shrink due to smartphones, tablets, etc., but there will always be enough demand to sustain home consoles, especially considering that many developing markets still have huge potential for growth in the home console market.

Handheld gaming on the other hand...

I think consoles will not die if they take the Wii U approach and I think Nintendo has made the right choice. The Wii U is set up for current price points, repurposes much of your prior purchases for their last console and allows you to stream everything you want to stream to your television and play some certain games on the gamepad in the event someone else needs the television. It can be a first screen or a second screen. It is well balanced and the company isn't going to go broke, go away or bug you with ads or yearly fees.

If the lead time on top tier games is currently 2 years and the costs now are $60+ million dollars, what will it be for the next generation and what sort of revenue and costs will be necessary to justify and recoup them? Given all the competition for the television set and eyeballs out there, any additional costs probably can't be justified.

It isn't just "hardcore" vs "casual" gamers out there. Games like Call of Duty have become so expensive that they amount to a hobby themselves rather than just a game people play. You can't support an entire industry on hobbyists. You can support one game, but not an industry.

It's a diminishing return. It is more money coming from fewer people already and now they will have to double down on that for the next generation? How many people want to pay $60 for CODBO2 and then $50 for a "Season Pass" and see those costs go UP for the next generation? They have to go up because everything will be new, require new tools, require more people to generate ever more detailed content, etc.

Will people really be willing to spend $500 on a unprofitable console so they can try to fill it up with $80 games requiring $60 passes and in some instances spend an extra $60+ a year just to go online? (That might go up too.)

I don't think this will happen or if it does, I don't think it will survive as a model because someone will start off with losses that aren't recouped.

Next gen will be the last .

Until televisions themselves can mimic everything a console does, they won't go anywhere. Remember when people were saying consoles would die because all they could do was play games? Consoles have evolved into streaming media centers besides the gaming functionality, and who knows where they might go from there. As long as they keep evolving they'll continue to be relevant.

nobody knows what will happen that far into the future. things could change alot in 10 years.

I don't think consoles are going away, there will always be a market for them.

But smartphone and tablet games are growing so much and fast, that soon traditional PC/Console gaming will become a niche segment for the industry.

The videogame market will start shrinking, yes, but it won't go anywhere in the next 10~12 years, after that we'll see how the market changed over the past years and have a clearer picture of where the market/consoles are heading.

I imagine consoles will continue overlapping with other devices over the next few years. The solely dedicated gaming machine is already dead, but consoles have no reason to die, especially considering the ambitions of Microsoft and Nintendo.

How is this?  If you could take the Wii U's tablet controller with you and use it independent of the system, then I'd say you have a point.  But I have no clue how you can say that the release of a new Ninty console killed or will kill the 3DS since traditionally the success or failure of Nintendo consoles and handhelds have very little to do with one another... the GBA and DS flourished even as the GC faltered and Nintendo looked like they were left for dead in the console market towards the latter half of the GC's life.  Then the Wii's runaway success from '06-'09 didn't slow down the DS's sales one bit during that time period.