Exactly.

Releasing third worked out just fine for Sony.  Even with a horrible launch, the PS3 has still sold at a much higher sales rate than the 360.  Imagine if it had launched at an acceptable price and with a solid library.  Had that been the case, I think it's safe to say that it would have out-sold the 360 by an even larger margin during that time.  It's all the other mistakes Sony has made that have been to blame, not the timing of the PS3 launch.

Microsoft is the one that needs to release first if they want brand growth.  Despite spending the most money this generation on marketing and acquiring 3rd party exclusives, and releasing with a headstart of a full year, the 360 has the lowest sales rate, the smallest installed base (perhaps RRoD is to blame there), and is the weakest brand globally.  If they don't launch early, or with some serious innovations (very possible), they might end up struggling with market share.

Not that it would necessarily be a big deal except to fanboys, who only seem to see placement in total units sold as having any meaning at all, which is silly.  It's very possible all the consoles will be quite close in sales and shares and all of them successful.  If this generation has shown anything, it's that there is room for three consoles on the market.

Hey, do you have a link for that?  I'd be interested in read it.  Everything I've seen has the PS3 turning a profit on console sales in the last quarter of 2009.

PS4 or x-box 720? How about both? That is more than likely, one will not launch without the other. There's no way that Sony or MS will let the other have a one year advantage again and there's certainly no way that they'll let Ninty have two years head start.

Also, if Sony would have waited, then they could of launced it when Xbox360 was in the midst of RROD meltdown.  

You are forgeting Microsoft with the Xbox360, revealed and launched in 2005, and the fact that announcing the nextbox/PS4 one year before launching would be bad for the sales of their actual machines, as many people will hold their purchases (waiting to buy either the successors or the PS360 at a lower price).

But they don't even have to wait for E3 to reveal them. Microsoft, again, unveiled the Xbox360 during an MTV special 1 month before E3.

And given that the early adopters of a console are fans of that brand or *sigh* hardcore gamers, both of them groups that follow internet sites and all the events related to videogames, nothing stops Microsoft or Sony to reveal them during the GDC in March or, given their focus on the living room and being the utimate media center, the CES Show in January.

Then, they can leave E3 to show all the games and other features to the masses who will be pleased to hear that they will be able to buy it that same year, just like Apple fans know the existance of a successor for their iwhatever just weeks before launching.

I'm guessing Sony wants its own launch, so either Dec. '13 or early '14 release is my prediction.

If you don't think Uncharted to be out within the first 3 months, then you're a bit clueless bro. In fact, I confident to say it will be a launch title which would be very smart. One of their ND studios is working on a game, and seeing how they rotate the Uncharted games, it is in production. Next year window release, and this to me points to the PS4 coming out in November of next year. The other studio is of course making their newest franchise title (Last of Us).

Then you also forget Gran Turismo franchise, which never resets. GT6 coming out on the PS3, probably not. I bet all their efforts are in it for the PS4, otherwise they would have released info on the game to make a 2012, or early 2013 release for GT6. Any later doesn't make sense. You can't release it Fall, or Winter of 2013 knowing about the next generation consoles hitting the market. But it's vey sad to me that we only got one GT game this generation.

You know when the PS4 launches they will have a strong launch lineup. It's very important thing for them (first part support).

Exciting, but pretty obvious.

You are right JEMC,Microsoft is the first company to successfully debut and release a gaming console in the same year.But traditonally you usually debut a gaming console a year before release,as we seen with the WiiU.

I totally forgot about that MTV special back in May 2005

The Xbox 3 and PS4 will sell more on launch day than the Wii U will  for the whole year 2022