The evidence that the PS3 will pass the 360 is that the PS3 sells more per year on average. (About 11.3M for the PS3 vs about 10M for the 360 per year on average).

I don't think it's beyond the realms of possibility for Gran Turismo, Uncharted & Killzone to be there for PS4's launch if late next year.  God of War would be the only 'huge' franchise that would be a no-show.

If early 2014, I'd definitely expect all three of those to be there.  Add in the fact that Sony seem to try to debut a new franchise or two with their home consoles (i.e. Resistance; Motorstorm), and that apparently the 'launch window' extends a good while after the console launches, I'd reckon they should be covered.

Î always predicted Xbox8 2013, Ps4 2014 at the earliest.

I'm not too familiar with what games Sony will be able to muster for the launch od PS4, so I trust you. If this is the case it's shaping up to be a pretty solid launch line up!! And it's a good thing they won't have GoW coming out that same year; too much awesome is overload ;) better save something for 2014!

Sony has been holding back on Uncharted, InFamous and Killzone 4 since their launch cycles are for 2013-2014 period.

I haven't played InFamous at all, and I'm no expert, but wouldn't it make more sense to release each of those games in separate years? Or at least a few months apart?

And as for Killzone, I don't think we'll see that game intil 2014 at the earliest...

Killzone needs a longer, more robust storyline and deeper online play. It could be really great. Well if you use Microsofts strategy, release few exclusives each year, but Sony makes many so they have multiple to release on a two year time frame. Sony said because of sales they will be focusing on the stronger titles and cutting back on the wasteful exclusive spending. Makes sense to me. Sony should release three hot exclusives per year on a two-three year developmental scale.

Sounds like a good plan! as long as you can fill the months inbetween with 3rd party games it's a sound strategy

I'm actually expecting the next Killzone before any of the others.  If we guess at a November launch for PS4, a new Killzone will have had 2 years 9 months in development.  It's enough.  The only hurdle would of course be the new architecture, but that's a hurdle all the first party needs to overcome (and it seems at least from rumours that the new console is going to be more 'traditional' to develop for).

Comparatively, Sucker Punch would only have had 2 years 5 months to make a new Infamous (or new IP) and Naughty Dog would only have had 2 years to make a new Uncharted.  But ND is much the bigger studio and could borrow staff from The Last of Us team once that's finished, too, which is why I expect it to be possible.

Polyphony would have had 3 years to work on Gran Turismo 6, but I'm sure you're aware what they're like.  At the very least I'd expect GT6 prologue at or close to launch from them.

With all this said, I'm not personally expecting PS4 until early 2014.   Which gives all these studios another 3 or so months of development time, plus longer for some if they want to space out the releases which I'm sure isn't a bad idea. 

Sony seems to like the first quarter a lot while Microsoft seems to own the fourth quarter. I think Sony needs to work on a killer app that will be able to take on Microsoft in the month of November/December. Summer is a must to have games come out as well because kids are out of school. They need to drop the spring timeline, its one of the lowest points of the year.