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Forums - Sales Discussion - Prediction: Halo 4 will sell 7,793,000+ in 2012

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man-bear-pig on 12 December 2012
Proclus said:
mbp, you should post a 3 vs reach vs 4 chart weekly via the comparison tool! 4 is currently 700k ahead of 3 aligned and 600k ahead of reach aligned! :)


The Halo 4 vs. GT5 thread is enough to handle!! You should do it. :)



My prediction threads:

Wii U will sell under 40m units (made on 14th September 2012)

PS Vita will sell under 20m units (made on 30th September 2012)

Wii U will sell under 7m in 2013 - I was right

Halo 4 first 9 weeks sales prediction

PS4 to be down YOY in 2015

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Proclus on 12 December 2012

K, will do after sleep.



yo_john117 on 13 December 2012

Wow it seems Halo 4 is having way better legs than past Halo's. I just hope it doesn't turn out to be overtracked :S (wouldn't be very surprised if it was though).

@Millenium. You should also compare it to Halo 3 and possibly a similar selling COD (one system only)



yo_john117 on 13 December 2012



Veknoid_Outcast on 13 December 2012
kowenicki said:
Massive. Not bad for a "diminishing franchise"

These are really great sales. I'm afraid I haven't played 4 yet (or Reach for that matter), but I'm really looking forward to it.

Off-topic: I saw the link in your signature. I don't even know what to say. I'm speechless.



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enrageorange on 14 December 2012
yo_john117 said:
Wow it seems Halo 4 is having way better legs than past Halo's. I just hope it doesn't turn out to be overtracked :S (wouldn't be very surprised if it was though).

@Millenium. You should also compare it to Halo 3 and possibly a similar selling COD (one system only)

This is because halo is getting its holiday boost at the same time as launch.

http://www.vgchartz.com/tools/game_comparison.php?reg=Global&ending=Weekly&game%5B%5D=&game%5B%5D=Halo%3A+Reach+%28X360%29+%5B35024%5D&game%5B%5D=&game%5B%5D=

Do you see that bump that Halo Reach got a few months after launch. Halo 4 isn't going to get that. 

Regardless though it looks like Halo 4 sales by the end of the year will be a bit higher than Halo: Reach's sales, so it should be able to pass it lifetime if its legs don't get cut short by the nextbox release.



yo_john117 on 14 December 2012
enrageorange said:
yo_john117 said:
Wow it seems Halo 4 is having way better legs than past Halo's. I just hope it doesn't turn out to be overtracked :S (wouldn't be very surprised if it was though).

@Millenium. You should also compare it to Halo 3 and possibly a similar selling COD (one system only)

This is because halo is getting its holiday boost at the same time as launch.

http://www.vgchartz.com/tools/game_comparison.php?reg=Global&ending=Weekly&game%5B%5D=&game%5B%5D=Halo%3A+Reach+%28X360%29+%5B35024%5D&game%5B%5D=&game%5B%5D=

Do you see that bump that Halo Reach got a few months after launch. Halo 4 isn't going to get that. 

Regardless though it looks like Halo 4 sales by the end of the year will be a bit higher than Halo: Reach's sales, so it should be able to pass it lifetime if its legs don't get cut short by the nextbox release.

Oh I know that. Still though Halo 4 looks like it will sell more in its first year (Nov - Dec) than Halo: Reach or Halo 3 did in a longer time span (Sep - Dec)



enrageorange on 14 December 2012
yo_john117 said:
enrageorange said:
yo_john117 said:
Wow it seems Halo 4 is having way better legs than past Halo's. I just hope it doesn't turn out to be overtracked :S (wouldn't be very surprised if it was though).

@Millenium. You should also compare it to Halo 3 and possibly a similar selling COD (one system only)

This is because halo is getting its holiday boost at the same time as launch.

http://www.vgchartz.com/tools/game_comparison.php?reg=Global&ending=Weekly&game%5B%5D=&game%5B%5D=Halo%3A+Reach+%28X360%29+%5B35024%5D&game%5B%5D=&game%5B%5D=

Do you see that bump that Halo Reach got a few months after launch. Halo 4 isn't going to get that. 

Regardless though it looks like Halo 4 sales by the end of the year will be a bit higher than Halo: Reach's sales, so it should be able to pass it lifetime if its legs don't get cut short by the nextbox release.

Oh I know that. Still though Halo 4 looks like it will sell more in its first year (Nov - Dec) than Halo: Reach or Halo 3 did in a longer time span (Sep - Dec)

Halo: Reach probably. Halo 3 I don't think so.

Vgchartz has its first year undertracked by a pretty large amount, at least according to npd.

According to vgchartz halo 3 sold 4.244mil by the end of its first year in the United States, including console bundles.
http://www.vgchartz.com/yearly/2007/USA/

According to NPD halo 3 sold 4.82mil by the end of its first year in the United States, and I'm pretty sure npd excludes console bundles.
http://www.joystiq.com/2008/01/17/december-npd-no-wonder-youre-broke-this-month/

Vgchartz numbers halo 4 might end up ahead of Halo 3 year one, but npd numbers will paint a different picture.



yo_john117 on 14 December 2012
enrageorange said:
yo_john117 said:
enrageorange said:
yo_john117 said:
Wow it seems Halo 4 is having way better legs than past Halo's. I just hope it doesn't turn out to be overtracked :S (wouldn't be very surprised if it was though).

@Millenium. You should also compare it to Halo 3 and possibly a similar selling COD (one system only)

This is because halo is getting its holiday boost at the same time as launch.

http://www.vgchartz.com/tools/game_comparison.php?reg=Global&ending=Weekly&game%5B%5D=&game%5B%5D=Halo%3A+Reach+%28X360%29+%5B35024%5D&game%5B%5D=&game%5B%5D=

Do you see that bump that Halo Reach got a few months after launch. Halo 4 isn't going to get that. 

Regardless though it looks like Halo 4 sales by the end of the year will be a bit higher than Halo: Reach's sales, so it should be able to pass it lifetime if its legs don't get cut short by the nextbox release.

Oh I know that. Still though Halo 4 looks like it will sell more in its first year (Nov - Dec) than Halo: Reach or Halo 3 did in a longer time span (Sep - Dec)

Halo: Reach probably. Halo 3 I don't think so.

Vgchartz has its first year undertracked by a pretty large amount, at least according to npd.

According to vgchartz halo 3 sold 4.244mil by the end of its first year in the United States, including console bundles.
http://www.vgchartz.com/yearly/2007/USA/

According to NPD halo 3 sold 4.82mil by the end of its first year in the United States, and I'm pretty sure npd excludes console bundles.
http://www.joystiq.com/2008/01/17/december-npd-no-wonder-youre-broke-this-month/

Vgchartz numbers halo 4 might end up ahead of Halo 3 year one, but npd numbers will paint a different picture.

Interesting. I had no idea Halo 3 was (possibly) undertracked.



man-bear-pig on 15 December 2012

OP updated.

Next week projected sales are 420,000, which will put it at 6.33m with 3 weeks left until the end of the year.



My prediction threads:

Wii U will sell under 40m units (made on 14th September 2012)

PS Vita will sell under 20m units (made on 30th September 2012)

Wii U will sell under 7m in 2013 - I was right

Halo 4 first 9 weeks sales prediction

PS4 to be down YOY in 2015