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Forums - Sales - Can the PS3 overtake the XBox 360 by January 1, 2013?

 

Can the PS3 overtake the XBox 360 by January 1, 2013?

Yes it can only just. 75 13.97%
 
It will do it easily. 52 9.68%
 
No it will not happen. 311 57.91%
 
Maybe, maybe not. 98 18.25%
 
Total:536
kain_kusanagi on 22 November 2012
psrock said:
RolStoppable said:
psrock said:
It won't happen this year, I expect both shipment to be close as they usually are. But can we slow down on the Kinect, its as much a factor as move is right now.

Kinect shipped over 2m units this year, so yeah... it's clearly fizzling out.


Sony has shipped 5 million move. They reported 10 million in march, now its at 15million. 

Of all shipped numbers from all the companies I take the most salt with Sony's Move numbers. What are they telling us? Is it PSeye, Move controlers that some people buy by the four? You need at least a PSeye and one Movie Controler to have a working move, but if Sony is telling use they have shipped 10-15m Move controlers and some people buy up to four that's really just one set. If MS tells us they shipped X number of Kinect then it means X number of Kinect are in X number of people's homes. If Sony says they shipped X the real number is somewhere between X/4 and X.



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psrock on 22 November 2012
kain_kusanagi said:
psrock said:
RolStoppable said:
psrock said:
It won't happen this year, I expect both shipment to be close as they usually are. But can we slow down on the Kinect, its as much a factor as move is right now.

Kinect shipped over 2m units this year, so yeah... it's clearly fizzling out.


Sony has shipped 5 million move. They reported 10 million in march, now its at 15million. 

Of all shipped numbers from all the companies I take the most salt with Sony's Move numbers. What are they telling us? Is it PSeye, Move controlers that some people buy by the four? You need at least a PSeye and one Movie Controler to have a working move, but if Sony is telling use they have shipped 10-15m Move controlers and some people buy up to four that's really just one set. If MS tells us they shipped X number of Kinect then it means X number of Kinect are in X number of people's homes. If Sony says they shipped X the real number is somewhere between X/4 and X.

No matter how you put it to feel better, Sony shipped over 5 million move this year. 



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kain_kusanagi on 22 November 2012
psrock said:
kain_kusanagi said:
psrock said:
RolStoppable said:
psrock said:
It won't happen this year, I expect both shipment to be close as they usually are. But can we slow down on the Kinect, its as much a factor as move is right now.

Kinect shipped over 2m units this year, so yeah... it's clearly fizzling out.


Sony has shipped 5 million move. They reported 10 million in march, now its at 15million. 

Of all shipped numbers from all the companies I take the most salt with Sony's Move numbers. What are they telling us? Is it PSeye, Move controlers that some people buy by the four? You need at least a PSeye and one Movie Controler to have a working move, but if Sony is telling use they have shipped 10-15m Move controlers and some people buy up to four that's really just one set. If MS tells us they shipped X number of Kinect then it means X number of Kinect are in X number of people's homes. If Sony says they shipped X the real number is somewhere between X/4 and X.

No matter how you put it to feel better, Sony shipped over 5 million move this year. 

What makes you think I care? I am equaly indifferent to all forms of motion contols. I didn't like them when they shipped with the Wii and I don't own either Kinect or Move, nor do I ever plan to.

All I was asking is what does Sony mean by 5 million? Do they mean individual move controllers or the minimum of what it takes to play a Move game? That's all. If they mean individual controlers than each sales doesn't not equate to a unique user. If all PS3 owners bought four controlers to go with their PSeye the total would be 280 million controllers for 70 million PS3s. Now do you see what I question the meaning of Move shipped numbers from Sony?



binary solo on 22 November 2012

The US dominated sales patterns through December and 360 total dominance [of the current gen consoles] there will ensure the gap widens from here through to probably January week 1 or 2.

Then it will be interesting to see the Post Christmas Wii U effect on PS360 sales. I think Wii U will tend to eat into PS3 sales more than 360 sales mostly due to Japan. I think prospective PS3 buyers in the USA will go for Wii U in larger proportion than prospective 360 buyers. Outside USA and Japan it might be an even move to Wii U away from PS360. But I don't know whether, on a global basis, Wii U will have a 5, 10 15 or 30% depressive effect on PS360 sales. So PS3 relative to 360 in 2013 is very up in the air.



“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."

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Michael-5 on 22 November 2012
Heavenly_King said:
Michael-5 said:
Heavenly_King said:

If the 360 owners don't want to re-buy a new custom 360 because of COD or Halo, I think that the PS3 has a chance of continue leading this year by 1.5M. I think that the PS3 will definitely outsell the 360 after both next gen consoles arrive.

LOL WOW, how many limited edition Halo, CoD and Gears of war 360's are there? Never mind about the limited edition coloured systems, Gran Turismo, Metal Gear, Uncharted etc.

These bundles only give temporary boosts on both sides.

However I do agee, Sony typically has better legs in Latin America, PS3 will outsell the 360 when 360 sales die off. So some point into the next gen.

COD and HALO sell almost the same numbers everytime, and yet when those games are released with their respective limited editions, the custom designed 360 sell a lot.  If there are more buyers for those customed design consoles and the games,  how can the sales of those games always on the same level?  If really those were new users the sales for those franchises would be a lot higher each time.  At least that is what I think regarding the consoles with new designs.   I think if the consoles were the normal ones, the sales would not get that high.

Also PS3 does not has limited edition consoles (different designs), so there is no purpose to re-buy the console.

Halo bundles are limited to 100k per game, so Halo 3, 4, and Reach only added 300k. Not sure what CoD adds, but CoD is just as big on PS3 as it is 360 now. The boost for console sales does favor 360, but with such limited supply, it doesn't make the difference from a 1.7 million gap to no gap.

Also not all Halo limited edition console buyers are re-buyers. Most people I know with Halo 360's typically bought 360 for Halo, so they bought the bundle with it. Gears is a different story though, those are mostly re-buys.

Finally, while there are more limited edition 360's in Americas, PS3 often comes in a limited edition colours in Japan which boosts sales dramatically. I remember when PS3 first got a 320GB model, it came on a limited edition white console in Japan, and sales were pretty damn high. I don't remember off the top of my head the numbers in Japan, but a 60k jump sounds about right.

Then there are the limited edition consoles, which do warrent a re-buy for many gamers, especially the limited edition GT5 bundles in Japan. Yakuza 3, Metal Gear Solid 4, Final Fantasy XIII, FFVII (The Movie),the Red Uncharted limited edition PS3, Twisted Metal, CoD, GTA IV: EfLC, Resident Evil 5, Darksiders, all these games came with custom covered limited edition PS3's. Coloured systems especially helped sales.

So although maybe Halo bundles still top PS3 limited bundles, there are so many limited PS3's out there, this really makes no difference.



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S.T.A.G.E. on 22 November 2012
1337 Gamer said:
sidious164 said:

No. Especially with The holiday bundle with forza 4 and skyrim for $250, compared to sony's slim with U3 that cost $269.99, the 360 cost less and comes with 2 games.

Might i mention 2 DAMN good games at that


LOL The PS3 Bundle has Uncharted 1/2 and InFamous 2.



thismeintiel on 22 November 2012
kain_kusanagi said:
psrock said:
RolStoppable said:
psrock said:
It won't happen this year, I expect both shipment to be close as they usually are. But can we slow down on the Kinect, its as much a factor as move is right now.

Kinect shipped over 2m units this year, so yeah... it's clearly fizzling out.


Sony has shipped 5 million move. They reported 10 million in march, now its at 15million. 

Of all shipped numbers from all the companies I take the most salt with Sony's Move numbers. What are they telling us? Is it PSeye, Move controlers that some people buy by the four? You need at least a PSeye and one Movie Controler to have a working move, but if Sony is telling use they have shipped 10-15m Move controlers and some people buy up to four that's really just one set. If MS tells us they shipped X number of Kinect then it means X number of Kinect are in X number of people's homes. If Sony says they shipped X the real number is somewhere between X/4 and X.

Sony has clarifed that the shipments are for Move contollers only when they released the first batch of numbers for it. 

'Accurate "as of November 2010," the figure is purely for the Move controller itself, excluding the PlayStation Eye camera also required to use the Move and the optional--but preferable--navigation controller.' - Source 

@ OP

It won't happen.  However, as long as MS doesn't start selling 360s for $50 a pop, then it should happen mid-late 2013.  MS may overtake them again for the holidays, but when the PS3 passes it again early 2014, there's no looking back.



 

D-Joe on 22 November 2012
psrock said:
kain_kusanagi said:
psrock said:
RolStoppable said:
psrock said:
It won't happen this year, I expect both shipment to be close as they usually are. But can we slow down on the Kinect, its as much a factor as move is right now.

Kinect shipped over 2m units this year, so yeah... it's clearly fizzling out.


Sony has shipped 5 million move. They reported 10 million in march, now its at 15million. 

Of all shipped numbers from all the companies I take the most salt with Sony's Move numbers. What are they telling us? Is it PSeye, Move controlers that some people buy by the four? You need at least a PSeye and one Movie Controler to have a working move, but if Sony is telling use they have shipped 10-15m Move controlers and some people buy up to four that's really just one set. If MS tells us they shipped X number of Kinect then it means X number of Kinect are in X number of people's homes. If Sony says they shipped X the real number is somewhere between X/4 and X.

No matter how you put it to feel better, Sony shipped over 5 million move this year. 

Holiday shipment,not surprised



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kain_kusanagi on 22 November 2012
thismeintiel said:
kain_kusanagi said:
psrock said:
RolStoppable said:
psrock said:
It won't happen this year, I expect both shipment to be close as they usually are. But can we slow down on the Kinect, its as much a factor as move is right now.

Kinect shipped over 2m units this year, so yeah... it's clearly fizzling out.


Sony has shipped 5 million move. They reported 10 million in march, now its at 15million. 

Of all shipped numbers from all the companies I take the most salt with Sony's Move numbers. What are they telling us? Is it PSeye, Move controlers that some people buy by the four? You need at least a PSeye and one Movie Controler to have a working move, but if Sony is telling use they have shipped 10-15m Move controlers and some people buy up to four that's really just one set. If MS tells us they shipped X number of Kinect then it means X number of Kinect are in X number of people's homes. If Sony says they shipped X the real number is somewhere between X/4 and X.

Sony has clarifed that the shipments are for Move contollers only when they released the first batch of numbers for it. 

'Accurate "as of November 2010," the figure is purely for the Move controller itself, excluding the PlayStation Eye camera also required to use the Move and the optional--but preferable--navigation controller.' - Source 

@ OP

It won't happen.  However, as long as MS doesn't start selling 360s for $50 a pop, then it should happen mid-late 2013.  MS may overtake them again for the holidays, but when the PS3 passes it again early 2014, there's no looking back.


Interesting. So there is no way to know how many PS3s are Move enabled. Sony says 15m Move controls have shipped, but if everyone who buys Move buys four than the number of people with Move is less than 4m.



thismeintiel on 22 November 2012
kain_kusanagi said:
thismeintiel said:

Sony has clarifed that the shipments are for Move contollers only when they released the first batch of numbers for it. 

'Accurate "as of November 2010," the figure is purely for the Move controller itself, excluding the PlayStation Eye camera also required to use the Move and the optional--but preferable--navigation controller.' - Source 

@ OP

It won't happen.  However, as long as MS doesn't start selling 360s for $50 a pop, then it should happen mid-late 2013.  MS may overtake them again for the holidays, but when the PS3 passes it again early 2014, there's no looking back.


Interesting. So there is no way to know how many PS3s are Move enabled. Sony says 15m Move controls have shipped, but if everyone who buys Move buys four then the number of people with Move is less than 4m.

4 each? Lol, you're joking, right?  I would imagine quite a few have 1, as most mulyiplayer games have you take turns.  And those that do have multiple controllers, most only have 2.  I know for ioi's estimates of install base, he was dividing the number sold by 1.5.  So let's say 14M have actually been sold to customers, that would be an install base of ~9.33M.