I would say about 10 million out of the total PS360 installed base are hardcore Nintendo fans. But don't be fooled about that 130+ Million number.

Don't forget the faulty consoles due to ROD and YLOD that had to be replaced, companies count those as sales too. And the number is above 20 million, thats for sure.

I think it's too soon to say since there won't really be enough Wii Us for a while (given preorders are flying off the shelves) I believe we just gotta wait til there's plenty of Wii Us in stock for get a foot hold on how many COD BO copies will sell.

Not terribly much, the sequel or the next Modern Warfare will surely sell quite a bit more. But there will be two large problems in the way of massive numbers the way I see it; installed base (the WiiU won't sell nearly as much as the Wii and not nearly as fast either) and demographics.
I simply don't see the average WiiU buyer as someone who bought it for Call of Duty games (which is fine since the series has gone to shit anyways...).

Only 10? So you believe more in the inverse, that PS360 fans also had a Wii, (whether due to curiosity, Nintendo games or their family members) because there was a lot of multiple console homes.  I myself owned all 3.

You're right about the RROD, not sure about YLOD . I've had 3 white 360s, finally got it right with the black slim *knock on wood*

Being that the majority of those 10 to 15 million systems will be sold to fairly "hardcore" gamers and their families, a large portion of them will be very interested in games like Call of Duty. Even if their only interest in the title is to see how a FPS game will play on the Wii U, and they could easily buy the game for another console, it could still sell quite well.

Being a new console, I say 1-2 million. Maybe 2-3 depending on how much of the initial fan base jumps. I will be buying it for the Wii-U and I never bought a Wii cod. So I guess you can factor in some new sales based on the fact that it is at least on par with other versions now.

I figure around 1m. CoD fans will buy it for their exisiting systems because that's where all their friends/achievements are.

Nintendo fans (who will be primary early buyers) are not big CoD fans.

With Wii we were all initially interested to see how motion/IR aiming improved/affected our favorite games. The gamepad does not have this same appeal, it'll be 90% the same as traditional controllers. Meaning BO2 won't likely see CoD3 Wii type sales. (CoD3 was also the only CoD (and best FPS) on Wii for 2 years....)

It should sell well to families with two boys who would benefit from the simultaneous two-player on two screens or in homes were TV is shared (so mom can kick the kids off but they can still keep on playing).

It will be the third highest selling game for the console after New Super Mario U and Nintendo Land for the first year IMO. Until Mario Kart 8 or something arrives.

I will say this, I've never bought a CoD game and BLOPS2 on Wii U will probably be my first. The pointer controls sealed the deal.

It will sell better than any of the Wii entries, that's for sure.

Bold: BO2 still supports pointer controls, so that might appeal to the existing Wii FPS base, even if it's not new any more.

Italic: What about Medal of Honor Heroes 2?