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I figure around 1m. CoD fans will buy it for their exisiting systems because that's where all their friends/achievements are.

Nintendo fans (who will be primary early buyers) are not big CoD fans.

With Wii we were all initially interested to see how motion/IR aiming improved/affected our favorite games. The gamepad does not have this same appeal, it'll be 90% the same as traditional controllers. Meaning BO2 won't likely see CoD3 Wii type sales. (CoD3 was also the only CoD (and best FPS) on Wii for 2 years....)

It should sell well to families with two boys who would benefit from the simultaneous two-player on two screens or in homes were TV is shared (so mom can kick the kids off but they can still keep on playing).