I didn't suggest the Wii would be a HD console ...

Games like Call of Duty were created for previous generation hardware, and for PCs that were less powerful than that. Much of the formula that is so popular in modern FPS games has its roots in PC games that were released in 1998 and 1999 and the Wii certainly has enough power to produce games that execute this formula at a high quality level.

What you don't seem to get is that "hardcore" gamers (at best) represent 10% of the market, more conventional gamers represent another 20% of the market, and the remaining 70% of the market are broader market gamers ... It doesn't matter whether the broader market gamer chooses to play Call of Duty, Madden, or Just Dance, or whether the "hardcore" gamer chooses to play New Super Mario Bros. or Halo the amount of games they play in a year and the time they spend to complete them are rarely determined by the genre of the game they play.

The causal crowed has moved on. No "hooks" needed this gen. But if i'd have to guess as what Sony is doing. Vita as a controllers helping cross process with the PS4. Head mounted display, and keeping move as it is with an sonar camera.

If MS never deiced to join in the Race PS3 would have beaten the wii pretty badly. Same with 360 if Sony never made a ps3. The core crowed is bigger in home console gaming than causal. No 'Hook" needed.

If the economy recovers, they will do ok, but they will definitely have a slow start, as most gamers are happy with their current systems. I won't buy a new next-gen console until a year or so after they are released. I can wait and it looks like these consoles will cost $300+ when they launch.

What about superior online systems?

And what is asymmetrical gameplay?

While I don't think they will fail by any means I was thinking something similar to this the other day. Both the PS2 and PS3 sold to some people as a DVD/Blu Ray player. With the PS4 likely not having any comparable new tech, will this affect sales?

Firstly, what exactly is a 'hook'? Which consoles have had 'hooks'. Are some 'hooks' more significant than others? You seem to agree that motion controllers and the Wii U's touchscreen are hooks. So, is a hook merely a hardware trait exclusively found on one system. Or is it any exclusive perk? I think having a superior online interface is as important, if not more important, than having a touchscreen and asymmetrical gameplay (what the hell is that anyway?). 

Secondly, we do not know how significant a 'hook' is. We only have one generation with a clear correlation between a hook and success. The Wii was the only generation-winner with a hook. Every other generation-winning console sold because of a conjunction of software and pricing. That's not enough evidence to make any confident assertions of how significant a hook is. Also, the Wii had plenty of other things besides a hook. The WIi had an incredibly low price in comparison to its conpetition. Some might even argue that it had compelling software. The Wii's hook was definitely a significant factor to the Wii's success. But considering the Wii's additional factors for success, it's difficult to know how significant the hook was. It definitely helped. But how much did it help? Would the Wii have been a failure without the hook? With it's software and pricing, I don't think it woud have.

Thirdly, You need to clearly define what you mean by 'fail'. At the moment, everyone's just using assumed definitions of failing/succeeding, which makes many of the posts here meaningless. By 'fail', you could mean that the PS4/720 will be outsold by the Wii U. In that case, I cannot argue against you. The Wii U's hook may be so significant that it propels the Wii U above the PS4 & 720's sales. I could see that happening. I really don't know what will happen. And I doubt you know either, but I cannot say with any confidence whether you're wrong or right.

However, when you say 'fail', you could mean that the PS4 & the 720 will be financial disasters and will fail to create sustainable profit. If that's what you mean, then I will have to disagree with you. Before this generation, there have been many successful consoles without a 'hook'. Similarly, there were also many failed consoles with a hook. Looking at past generations, there seems to be no strong correlation between a 'hook' and success. The only evidence that suggests hooks increase success is the Wii. But that's only one incident. That's not nearly sufficient evidence to counter all the examples of successsful consoles without hooks and failed consoles with hooks. Sure, you could make the argument that the market is changing and hooks are becoming a necessity for success. But, with the Wii as your only supporting evidence, your argument is weak. Firstly, the Wii is your only example. Secondly, it only suggests that a hook improves success; Not that it's necessary for success. There's a difference. Even this generation, the Xbox 360 garnered an enourmous sum of profit. I don't think the Xbox 360 had a hook - At least not any hooks that the X720 won't also have.

So, using this generation as evidence, you could argue that a hook improves success. I would agree with that. But if you're saying a hook is necessary for success, then that would be unjustified. Thus, claiming the X720 and PS4 will fail as a result of lacking a hook, is also unjustified. Of course I'm is assuming that by 'failing', you mean being a financial disaster and failing to create sustainable profit. So, you really need to clarify what you mean.

@ bold:  Actually, you compared them first in your first post...

"Though the Wii sold a lot you would expect the system to sell more than a 2 gen old system by a decent margin. Not just barely scrape by it."

So, the Wii, which used dated tech for its generation to begin with, will "barely scrape by" the PS1.  What does that say about the PS3, which used modern tech for its day, not being able to?  I don't think you're making the case you think you are...

Archbix the ps3 isn't the console leader. Nor is it the "mass market" console the OP is arguing for. The Ps1 was so why compare it?

Also, you obviously didn't read my post correctly

I think your thread title is a bit over-dramatic, as we don't know enough about Durango or Orbis yet. For example, cloud gaming could be considered to be a new hook. So could a multimedia hub with a DVR. They could be unique in their own way while traditional in others.

However, I will say this, which kind of mirrors your conclusion: If Microsoft and Sony take very similar approaches to each other again this time, it's certainly possible that the market will adopt one over the other, making that console compete for first place with WiiU and its unique approach... unless WiiU bombs, which is highly unlikely IMO.