Forums - Sales Discussion - I think the 720 and PS4 will fail sales wise if there is no hook

If either the PS4 or 720 have a retail price over $400 they're going to fail miserably in terms of sales no matter what USP they both have. I'm fully expecting Sony to clone the U GamePad too if they have any sense.



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SunofKratos said:
A couple of years ago i would have said that Sony will dominate bwith The ps3 because of the success of PS1 and PS2 but it dont happened. What i want to say is only because Ninty was first this gen does not automatically mean that Ninty will be first again. Anything can happen next gen. And the ninty fans are way too optimistik about the Wii U.

1. Remember how much the N64 and the Game Cube sold ( this shoes that not everything Ninty make turns out to be gold
2. Thé Wii sold so much because it attracked the casuals. From those casuals which byed a Wii, many have played 2 or 3 games and the console was never touched again because of the lack of good games.
So will this Wii Users buy The Wii U if they already have an unused Wii at home?
3. The casual market isnt untpouched anymore. Both Sony and Microsoft will produce games for that market
4. PS3 and X Box 360 very cheap and both have many games to attrackt gamers over the Wii U
5. X Box next will likely have an Kinect 2.0 which will attrackt many casuals for sure
6. PS4 will most likely have an Eye Toy Cam 2,0 which will also attrackt many casuals
7. we dont really know what Microsoft and Sony offers next gen
8. The Hype train for PS4 and X Box next will be massive ( and that alone will convinced many gamers to wait for those consoles instead of buying a Wii U)
9.Most of the casual tend to buy the cheapest console ( another reason why the PS2 is still selling) and with a price point pof about Dollar 300 the Wii U will not be as cheap as X360 and PS4. Most will buy the Wii u when it get cheaper.
10. A tablet as a controller- i dont really think that this will attracted old mumys to buy the system.

So you hardcore ninty fans better come back to earth or you can prepare to get dissapointed. It is ridicoulus thinking that the Wii U will be the same success like the Wii without knwoing what the competition has to offer.

You're making a lot of assumptions which are difficult/impossible to support ...

If casual gamers only bought a couple games for the Wii, how did the Wii end up selling more than 800 Million units of software?

If casual gamers buy the cheapest system why did they ever buy a Wii (the PS2 was always cheapest), why didn't they buy a Gamecube (which was always cheaper than the PS2), why did they buy an XBox 360 with Kinect (which was always more expensive than the Wii), and why would they buy the 'XBox 720' or PS4 with Kinect/Eye toy which will likely be more expensive than the Wii U?

If building up "hype" with hardcore gamers impacts sales, why is the 3DS so successful where the PS-Vita is falling flat?

 

 

You fall into the trap that everyone who dismisses the Wii U (and dismissed the 3DS) and embraces the PS4/XBox 720 (and embraced the PS-Vita) has fallen into. You assume your values in a system are typical, you believe your stereotypical view of casual gamers reflects reality, and you dismiss the vast majority of typical (broader market) gamers because they don't fall into the two categories of gamers you've defined (casual/hardcore).

The market is much more complicated than that, and systems will likely be bought to meet the needs of the household rather than an individual gamer; and, while 13 year old timmy may desperately want the PS4/XBox 720 his 15 year old sister and 8 year old brother must be taken into consideration (along with the mother and father). The reason we have had such growth in this generation is that no system has actually been able to meet the needs of an entire household and multi-console ownership has exploded; and the Wii U's strength and weakness is that it seems to be a viable system for everyone but not targeted towards anyone in particular. If this translates into it being better for a family it could really help its sales and hurt any adoption of the PS4/XBox 720.



_crazy_man_ said:

I was saying 2+ years.  Of course your PC will be fine if its 1 1/2 old.  The first PC I built was 2009 for $1,200.  This year It needed to be upgraded (new OS, HD, and GPU) and now I should be good (minus a motherboard and CPU upgrade) for 2-3 more years.

When you said that MS/SOny had change that plan by making super expensive consoles, that really only applies to Sony, $400 was a bit high but nothing compared to the $600 that was the PS3. 

$400 is still way too expensive for a console. That would be like saying if there was a $1000 console released in generation 7, suddenly Sony's would be ok.



Project Fortaleza.

The 3D augmented/virtual realty glasses that Microsoft is supposedly working on. That's the hook for the next Xbox.

What Project Fortaleza will offer is the ability for the UI and games to offer an expanded interface, as well as an expanded play environment.

Using the glasses, information can be tucked to the periphery of the users vision, then using a slight movement left or right, and up or down can "tab" the view in that direction, much as one uses the arrow keys. Or information could be displayed in a semi-transparent display, allowing the user to focus either on the information presented in the glasses or on the screen ahead. Having a conversation with your family, want to talk to your mum privately about a gift you got for your sister? Bring your mum's conversation to the main screen with your sister in your periphery on the glasses. Want to bring her back into the foreground conversation, twitch your head in her direction.

In terms of game play, environments that once relied upon using the game pad to navigate the environment could allow users to look in a specific direction and see around the environment. So as you turn your head to the right, the glasses display the environment to your right. The glasses go from transparent to actively displaying within the lenses what you should expect to see on your right. Crouching behind a crate? Need to see around a corner? Just lean forward and turn your head. Want to see what driver is on your left, take a look to your left and check him out. Need to see the bogey on your tail? Look back or look up into your mirror. Need to check your Pipboy? Look down to see the Pipboy.

I'm not saying it'll revolutionize gaming, but it will become the next Xbox's hook.



duckypwns said:
_crazy_man_ said:
 

I was saying 2+ years.  Of course your PC will be fine if its 1 1/2 old.  The first PC I built was 2009 for $1,200.  This year It needed to be upgraded (new OS, HD, and GPU) and now I should be good (minus a motherboard and CPU upgrade) for 2-3 more years.

When you said that MS/SOny had change that plan by making super expensive consoles, that really only applies to Sony, $400 was a bit high but nothing compared to the $600 that was the PS3. 

$400 is still way too expensive for a console. That would be like saying if there was a $1000 console released in generation 7, suddenly Sony's would be ok.

For the 2005 market (also considering what the 360 was offering), a $400 console wasn't "wtf expensive".

Now if you release a $400 console in today's market........



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HappySqurriel said:
maverick40 said:
They will sell better than the wii u, that is for sure.


Based on what?

We don't even know what the PS4 or 'XBox 720' will be or how the Wii U will sell ...

Two years from now we could see a home console market that is similar to the handheld market today, with Nintendo having a less powerful but less expensive system with a built in 'gimick' that launched earlier outselling more powerful systems by a wide margin.


Based on the fact that the Nintendo are launching their Next gen console in less than two months and there is zero hype, no price tag, no launch line up,no info regarding nintendo network. Nobody has any clue what the Wii U is and the casuals will think it is an add-on to the Wii. 



At happy Squirrel:

1.The Wii sold more than the pS2 yearly because the pS2 is over 10 years old right know. But why do the casuals by the Wii? Because it always was the cheapest console on the market. That and the fact that it offers casual games.

2. The 800 M games the Wii sold isnt really a good argument. How many games of the 800 M units sold a bundled with a Wii or the Wii-Moote etc.
Games like Wii Sports, mario Kart Wii, Super Mario Bros Wii just to name a few are bundled like hell.
So this make your 800 M argument a little bit invalid. How many units have kinect Adventures sold when it doesnt get bundled with every kinect system out there.
And believe me there are many guys which have a Wii for 2 or 3 games and thats all.

3. Bringing the 3ds into this conversation has nothing do to with the WiiU and i tell you why

- handhelds are a different thema- you compare apples with tomatoes. Nintendo produce handhelds for how long? Nintendo always was the Number 1 when it comes to handhelds. The first step into this market came from Sony with the PSP. You better compare home consoles with other home consoles. And the only home console where Nintendo really shine was the Wii. Nintendo 64 was mildly succesfull and the Game Cube was a flopp.

- i do not need to remember you that the Nintendo 3ds need a big price cut aftzer a few monts, a new design plus it already realeased three Mario Games right know to get those numbers it has right know and yet it still managed to sell Ok in EU and US compared to the DS.

- i do not need to remember you that the Game Cube also has games like
Super Mario Sunshine, Luigis Mansion, Paper mario, Mario Kart, Mario Party, Pikmin, Super Smash bros, Pokemon, Animal Crossing and yet it didnt managed to get Number 1. So you see even with Mario doesnt automatically mean that it will be a success.

- i do not need to remember you that both The X Box 360 and pS3 will be able to outsell the Wii in some years

So in the end all i want to say is dont be so sure about the Wii U. Its like me saying the PS4 will dominate next gen because it dominated PS1 and PS2 times without knwoing the specs and the price. Or its like me saying the PS4 will be first next gen because the PS3 is the best selling home console each year.
I also dont say that the Wii U wont be first ( anything can happened) but it also can flopp hardly. So dont be so sure or you might get really dissapointed.



You really need another hook?

The new Xbox 3 will feature:

- BluRay
- Kinect 2.0
- Netflix
- ESPN
- MLB
- NBA
- NHL
- Nickelodeon
- Paramount
- Live TV
- Sky
- CanalPlus
- BBC iPlayer
- Zune Video Store
- Xbox Music
- Facebook
- Twitter
- IGN
- Youtube
- HBO Go
- Youtube
- ZDF Mediathek
- HuluPlus
- LoveFilm
- MSNBC
- Fox
- Machinima
- Smartglass
- UFC


and that is just the confirmed stuff that is available already. Nintendo / Sony need to play catch-up here. I think being an entertainment hub becomes the real hook if you want to own the living room.



Imagine not having GamePass on your console...

can't edit at work...

confirmed / available EXCEPT BluRay



Imagine not having GamePass on your console...

maverick40 said:
HappySqurriel said:
maverick40 said:
They will sell better than the wii u, that is for sure.


Based on what?

We don't even know what the PS4 or 'XBox 720' will be or how the Wii U will sell ...

Two years from now we could see a home console market that is similar to the handheld market today, with Nintendo having a less powerful but less expensive system with a built in 'gimick' that launched earlier outselling more powerful systems by a wide margin.


Based on the fact that the Nintendo are launching their Next gen console in less than two months and there is zero hype, no price tag, no launch line up,no info regarding nintendo network. Nobody has any clue what the Wii U is and the casuals will think it is an add-on to the Wii. 

I have found that hype is a very unreliable indicator when it comes to sales, primarily because hype is usually measured based on how an unrepresentative 0.1% of people feel about a product. I remember seeing huge amounts of hype surrounding the launches of the Dreamcast, XBox and Gamecube while their sales were unimpressive, and recently the 3DS seemed to launch with little hype and it has sold relatively strongly; certainly, the 3DS' launch was fumbled but sales took off because of an agreesive price and several good game releases.

The lack of information a few months before launch is nothing new in this industry, and has been associated with successful and unsuccessful systems.

 

You have to remember, it is likely that if the Wii U is successful about 5% of people who own it will buy it within 6 months of it launching. While it is important to make a good first impression, producing a successful product is determined by more than just having a good launch; and becoming the market leader is a marathon not a sprint.