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Forums - Sales Discussion - I think the 720 and PS4 will fail sales wise if there is no hook

HappySqurriel on 09 September 2012
BasilZero said:
OoSnap said:

I think the mass market will find the new consoles boring without a new control scheme or a new form of gameplay. 

 

You can keep your wiimotes, Kinects, PSmoves, virtual reality helmets, virtual boys, 3D, 4k and whatever crazy idea.

Just give me a game (Exclusives are the best hooks) with normal controller input plox.

I don't personally believe that they need a new user interface device but I do believe they need far more than graphics ... For atleast their first few years on the market they will be getting cross-platform games from the PS3, XBox 360 and Wii U.

Games will continue to look like this on the PS3/XBox 360:

http://www.pcgameshardware.com/&menu=browser&mode=article&image_id=1212852&article_id=698077&page=2

and (at best) will look like this on the XBox 720/PS4:

http://www.pcgameshardware.com/&menu=browser&mode=article&image_id=1212849&article_id=698077&page=2

With the Wii U (likely) falling somewhere between the two.

With this in mind it becomes difficult to justify spending $400+ to play the same game in the same way on a system to get moderately better graphics. There has to be something that drives people to want the new system. Nintendo is betting on a new user interface device, new styles of local multiplayer game, and creating a social networking space on their console. Sony and Microsoft don't need to copy Nintendo, but they do need more than graphics.



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mike_intellivision on 09 September 2012

This generation has sold about 10 percent more than the last generation did.
The split had been much more diversified as no console was über dominant ( like the PS2).

Once graphics cease to be an issue, then something else will be needed for consoles to differientiate themselves.

I believe that is the intent of the OP, in my opinion.

And I think that there is some truth to that.

Mike from Morgantown



      


I am Mario.


I like to jump around, and would lead a fairly serene and aimless existence if it weren't for my friends always getting into trouble. I love to help out, even when it puts me at risk. I seem to make friends with people who just can't stay out of trouble.

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NNID: Mike_INTV
megaman79 on 10 September 2012
Soundwave said:
OoSnap said:
@ Soundwave

Most gamers don't care much about graphics. The fact the Wii is on cusp of selling 100 million, the DS dominated the more powerful PSP and the 3DS doing the same with the more powerful Vita attests to that.

I know gamers on forums love their high end graphics but the mass market doesn't care and I have no doubt Sony and Microsoft have caught on and that is why I speculate their next consoles are not going to be as powerful as a lot of its fanbase expect.

I wouldn't doubt Microsoft and Sony are brainstorming or considering a new gaming concept or control interface instead of just offering more powerful hardware. I wouldn't be surprised if Microsoft and Sony (more so Sony) came out with their own tablet gamepad.

As I said before if Nintendo acquires most multiplats and if its competitors brings nothing new to the table that would appeal to the mass market then Wii U will easily dominate next gen despite being the weakest console.

With development cost being higher I seriously doubt 3rd parties are going to neglect the Wii U as they did the Wii. Plus Nintendo seems to be much more aggressive getting 3rd parties on board. They already have (timed?) exclusives such as Rayman, Lego City, P 1000, Zombie U, and DQ X and a lot of multiplats.

Because Wii U is likely to be the least expensive, have most 3rd party multiplats, have its tablet gamepad and asymmetric gameplay concept, Nintendo is going to easily dominate next gen. This I have no doubt and I am going to stick by this prediction for years to come. Of course this could change if Wii U doesn't get the major multiplats and/or Sony/Microsoft brings something creative.

Microsoft and Sony should be worried because having just a more powerful hardware is not going to cut it. They need to pull out sonething creative if they want their next gen consoles to sell as much or more than its predecessors.

If gamers don't care about graphics why do the Call of Duty games sell 20 million on the HD consoles versus like 2-3 million tops on the Wii? No one wants to play the Wii version with crappier graphics, that's why.

Online Communities were an advantage for the 360, and launching first also ingrained this market. Not to mention money-hatting on exclusive dlc.

If anything, Microsoft's Kinect is the more recent product hit in this cateogrey, but really all of this is becoming Apple's domain. Its not Apple's domain, its the game developers. Profit share is infact one of the areas where MS and Nintendo can beat Apple on this issue btw.

The next gen is probably from a casual POV going to be more about who (if anyone) can get the next set-top-box done before Apple takes over with iTV. Apple won't take over anything, and you have no reasonable evidence to suggest this will happen with iTV. As for winning the TV Market, its irrelavant to the majority of the audience who just want to play games.

And quite honestly, Microsoft is probably the best positioned to challenge there. Nintendo has good ideas, but they rarely follow through with non-gaming aspects (the 3DS eShop still feels like something straight out of 1996).

Furthermore, what do you really think Nintendo are offering with the WII U? It is theoretically the first home console that doesn't even need a TV. It is an all inclusive device for content delivery to a TV less household, and that could be more valuable than any kind of set top box.

Nintendo is basically competing against Apple for the soccer mom/hipster audience. Sony/MS have a more reliable audience of core gamers who live, eat, breathe gaming and will buy a new game console because they have to have the new games. Soccer mom? Does she really need that $300 Wii U? She already has Wii Fit which she last used in 2009. You don't know this fact. Next thing you'll tell us how Just Dance's massive success is from people who've never bought JD before.  That type of consumer is just likely to walk out of the store with an iPad mini or whatever instead of a Wii U. Not if its cheaper, eg. Amazon Kindle.

I think Nintendo will have a good launch period just because there's nothing new and the 3DS/Vita have failed miserably in North America to ignite the market (again casual gamers are not coming back to the 3DS, they have smartphones now). But 1-2 years from now it wouldn't surprise me if Wii U is already running out of steam.

Bolded responses



“When we make some new announcement and if there is no positive initial reaction from the market, I try to think of it as a good sign because that can be interpreted as people reacting to something groundbreaking. ...if the employees were always minding themselves to do whatever the market is requiring at any moment, and if they were always focusing on something we can sell right now for the short term, it would be very limiting. We are trying to think outside the box.” - Satoru Iwata - This is why corporate multinationals will never truly understand, or risk doing, what Nintendo does.

Soundwave on 10 September 2012

The 3D screen of the 3DS was supposed to be the big hook of the 3DS, and that has not yielded Nintendo big results, just because you slap a touchscreen on a controller (something Sony/MS could very easily copy) does not mean the Wii U is the second coming of the Wii.

The Wiimote, a wand like controller that mimicked movements of universal games like bowling and tennis were instantly understandable by a very wide audience of mom/pop/grandpa/sister etc. Non-gamers. This is where I'm sketpical, I don't see a lot of these people coming back with the same enthusiasm.

The Wii was a completely new concept for 2006 unlike anything most people had seen. Wii U is a traditional gamepad with a touchscreen in the middle of it. Apples and oranges if you ask me.

A control pad with like 20 buttons on it requiring people to look up at the TV and down the screen intermittently and being sold on concepts like "Metroid Blast" is not as universal/demographic breaking as playing Wii Sports with the Wiimote.

Kinect is a lot of ways IMO is the actual successor to the Wii concept, the natural step beyond a wand controller that can detect arm movement is a sensor that can detect full body movement. Wii U is Nintendo basically trying to move back from such an overly casual approach to try and get a better balance of core gamers because they know they can't just rely only on casuals anymore.

Microsoft is really honestly the only one that has a good balance of both core and casual players already. Nintendo basically ceded their entire presence in the core market, even with a 100 million userbase they can't even market/sell product like Xenoblade because there's no audience for that type of game on the Wii platform. Sony doesn't know what they're doing with PS Move so they're stuck with more of a core base. MS has the lead core audience in the West and also with Kinect successfully showed they could attract a good amount of casuals. 



SunofKratos on 10 September 2012

A couple of years ago i would have said that Sony will dominate bwith The ps3 because of the success of PS1 and PS2 but it dont happened. What i want to say is only because Ninty was first this gen does not automatically mean that Ninty will be first again. Anything can happen next gen. And the ninty fans are way too optimistik about the Wii U.

1. Remember how much the N64 and the Game Cube sold ( this shoes that not everything Ninty make turns out to be gold
2. Thé Wii sold so much because it attracked the casuals. From those casuals which byed a Wii, many have played 2 or 3 games and the console was never touched again because of the lack of good games.
So will this Wii Users buy The Wii U if they already have an unused Wii at home?
3. The casual market isnt untpouched anymore. Both Sony and Microsoft will produce games for that market
4. PS3 and X Box 360 very cheap and both have many games to attrackt gamers over the Wii U
5. X Box next will likely have an Kinect 2.0 which will attrackt many casuals for sure
6. PS4 will most likely have an Eye Toy Cam 2,0 which will also attrackt many casuals
7. we dont really know what Microsoft and Sony offers next gen
8. The Hype train for PS4 and X Box next will be massive ( and that alone will convinced many gamers to wait for those consoles instead of buying a Wii U)
9.Most of the casual tend to buy the cheapest console ( another reason why the PS2 is still selling) and with a price point pof about Dollar 300 the Wii U will not be as cheap as X360 and PS4. Most will buy the Wii u when it get cheaper.
10. A tablet as a controller- i dont really think that this will attracted old mumys to buy the system.

So you hardcore ninty fans better come back to earth or you can prepare to get dissapointed. It is ridicoulus thinking that the Wii U will be the same success like the Wii without knwoing what the competition has to offer.



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Pavolink on 10 September 2012

Bitter tears and horrible posts. Anyway.

Better graphics can be a hook for some people.
New IP's can be a hook for some others.
Better Online...
New machines...
Sequels of their favorite franchises...
Etc.

Not only gameplay can be a hook.



Proud to be the first cool Nintendo fan ever

Number ONE Zelda fan in the Universe

DKCTF didn't move consoles

Prediction: No Zelda HD for Wii U, quietly moved to the succesor

Predictions for Nintendo NX and Mobile


snowdog on 10 September 2012

If either the PS4 or 720 have a retail price over $400 they're going to fail miserably in terms of sales no matter what USP they both have. I'm fully expecting Sony to clone the U GamePad too if they have any sense.



HappySqurriel on 10 September 2012
SunofKratos said:
A couple of years ago i would have said that Sony will dominate bwith The ps3 because of the success of PS1 and PS2 but it dont happened. What i want to say is only because Ninty was first this gen does not automatically mean that Ninty will be first again. Anything can happen next gen. And the ninty fans are way too optimistik about the Wii U.

1. Remember how much the N64 and the Game Cube sold ( this shoes that not everything Ninty make turns out to be gold
2. Thé Wii sold so much because it attracked the casuals. From those casuals which byed a Wii, many have played 2 or 3 games and the console was never touched again because of the lack of good games.
So will this Wii Users buy The Wii U if they already have an unused Wii at home?
3. The casual market isnt untpouched anymore. Both Sony and Microsoft will produce games for that market
4. PS3 and X Box 360 very cheap and both have many games to attrackt gamers over the Wii U
5. X Box next will likely have an Kinect 2.0 which will attrackt many casuals for sure
6. PS4 will most likely have an Eye Toy Cam 2,0 which will also attrackt many casuals
7. we dont really know what Microsoft and Sony offers next gen
8. The Hype train for PS4 and X Box next will be massive ( and that alone will convinced many gamers to wait for those consoles instead of buying a Wii U)
9.Most of the casual tend to buy the cheapest console ( another reason why the PS2 is still selling) and with a price point pof about Dollar 300 the Wii U will not be as cheap as X360 and PS4. Most will buy the Wii u when it get cheaper.
10. A tablet as a controller- i dont really think that this will attracted old mumys to buy the system.

So you hardcore ninty fans better come back to earth or you can prepare to get dissapointed. It is ridicoulus thinking that the Wii U will be the same success like the Wii without knwoing what the competition has to offer.

You're making a lot of assumptions which are difficult/impossible to support ...

If casual gamers only bought a couple games for the Wii, how did the Wii end up selling more than 800 Million units of software?

If casual gamers buy the cheapest system why did they ever buy a Wii (the PS2 was always cheapest), why didn't they buy a Gamecube (which was always cheaper than the PS2), why did they buy an XBox 360 with Kinect (which was always more expensive than the Wii), and why would they buy the 'XBox 720' or PS4 with Kinect/Eye toy which will likely be more expensive than the Wii U?

If building up "hype" with hardcore gamers impacts sales, why is the 3DS so successful where the PS-Vita is falling flat?

 

 

You fall into the trap that everyone who dismisses the Wii U (and dismissed the 3DS) and embraces the PS4/XBox 720 (and embraced the PS-Vita) has fallen into. You assume your values in a system are typical, you believe your stereotypical view of casual gamers reflects reality, and you dismiss the vast majority of typical (broader market) gamers because they don't fall into the two categories of gamers you've defined (casual/hardcore).

The market is much more complicated than that, and systems will likely be bought to meet the needs of the household rather than an individual gamer; and, while 13 year old timmy may desperately want the PS4/XBox 720 his 15 year old sister and 8 year old brother must be taken into consideration (along with the mother and father). The reason we have had such growth in this generation is that no system has actually been able to meet the needs of an entire household and multi-console ownership has exploded; and the Wii U's strength and weakness is that it seems to be a viable system for everyone but not targeted towards anyone in particular. If this translates into it being better for a family it could really help its sales and hurt any adoption of the PS4/XBox 720.



duckypwns on 10 September 2012
_crazy_man_ said:

I was saying 2+ years.  Of course your PC will be fine if its 1 1/2 old.  The first PC I built was 2009 for $1,200.  This year It needed to be upgraded (new OS, HD, and GPU) and now I should be good (minus a motherboard and CPU upgrade) for 2-3 more years.

When you said that MS/SOny had change that plan by making super expensive consoles, that really only applies to Sony, $400 was a bit high but nothing compared to the $600 that was the PS3. 

$400 is still way too expensive for a console. That would be like saying if there was a $1000 console released in generation 7, suddenly Sony's would be ok.



Adinnieken on 10 September 2012

Project Fortaleza.

The 3D augmented/virtual realty glasses that Microsoft is supposedly working on. That's the hook for the next Xbox.

What Project Fortaleza will offer is the ability for the UI and games to offer an expanded interface, as well as an expanded play environment.

Using the glasses, information can be tucked to the periphery of the users vision, then using a slight movement left or right, and up or down can "tab" the view in that direction, much as one uses the arrow keys. Or information could be displayed in a semi-transparent display, allowing the user to focus either on the information presented in the glasses or on the screen ahead. Having a conversation with your family, want to talk to your mum privately about a gift you got for your sister? Bring your mum's conversation to the main screen with your sister in your periphery on the glasses. Want to bring her back into the foreground conversation, twitch your head in her direction.

In terms of game play, environments that once relied upon using the game pad to navigate the environment could allow users to look in a specific direction and see around the environment. So as you turn your head to the right, the glasses display the environment to your right. The glasses go from transparent to actively displaying within the lenses what you should expect to see on your right. Crouching behind a crate? Need to see around a corner? Just lean forward and turn your head. Want to see what driver is on your left, take a look to your left and check him out. Need to see the bogey on your tail? Look back or look up into your mirror. Need to check your Pipboy? Look down to see the Pipboy.

I'm not saying it'll revolutionize gaming, but it will become the next Xbox's hook.