hehe yeah, it's always a bad idea to make a bet if you don't have all the numbers ;) like, when will WiiU launch? what will it cost?

But what's speaking for this bet is NSMBU. If THAT game launches with WiiU I'd expect 5m sales if released late october

My guess it will be roughly the same, if the Wii U sells more than expected 

You guys seem to forget that the Vita is on track to reach NEGATIVE SALES in October. I suspect that, by the time we reach Black Friday, VIta numbers will be back down to 1.5 million.

I think Wii U will sell 3-4 million before the end of the year. Within a month of release we will know if it is going to be like the Wii and production constraint or a slow battle up like the 3DS depending on more software releases to keep driving hardware sales.

While I think the Wii U design is awesome... I don't see a Wii Sports like title that will really drive ever green sales. Nintendo Land will not be that title... no matter how much Nintendo wants it to be like that.

I think 3 million for wiiU if is priced around $300, vita might end with 4. Im not counting NSMBU tough, since the releases of 2 2d marios so close to each other might have a effect in the latest one, yet they are different platforms so i mgiht be wrong.

Almost no chance at all.

If Wii U is released early (ie middle of October or earlier) and is as popular as the Wii was at launch (and has adequate supply) then it might manage 5 million.
If the Vita needs to be adjusted down, and just sells "as expected" for a platform doing what it is now, then yes it probably won't manage 5 million and might finish the year just over 4 million.... the former of those scenarios is highly unlikely, and i'm not sure about the latter, but even if Vita is adjusted down I think it would manage 4.5 million

The Wii U is not going to be released in mid October... it will at best be early November (more probably the same as Wii with mid Nov to early Dec) and it really doesn't look like it will follow the Wii's footsteps, I think it will be impressive if it tops 2.5 million this year... and I suspect it will be between 1.5 and 2 million. Even if the Vita adjustment happens I still think it unlikely the WiiU will top what the Vita has already sold now, never mind after Christmas.

So Vita will only sell 1 mil through the rest of the year?

Nope.

Wii U will launch with at least 1m and should reach around 3.5m if popular. Nintendo will definitely ship 4m.

Vita will probably reach 4m-4.5m, Sony will ship 5m.

So I think it isn't possible.

Impossible. The vita will sell ~5m this year...there's no way the Wii U could do those numbers in 2012 because Nintendo couldn't possibly ship that many consoles in such a short period of time, let alone sell them.

Vita 4 million.

Wii-U 3 million depending when released.