Almost no chance at all.
If Wii U is released early (ie middle of October or earlier) and is as popular as the Wii was at launch (and has adequate supply) then it might manage 5 million.
If the Vita needs to be adjusted down, and just sells "as expected" for a platform doing what it is now, then yes it probably won't manage 5 million and might finish the year just over 4 million.... the former of those scenarios is highly unlikely, and i'm not sure about the latter, but even if Vita is adjusted down I think it would manage 4.5 million
The Wii U is not going to be released in mid October... it will at best be early November (more probably the same as Wii with mid Nov to early Dec) and it really doesn't look like it will follow the Wii's footsteps, I think it will be impressive if it tops 2.5 million this year... and I suspect it will be between 1.5 and 2 million. Even if the Vita adjustment happens I still think it unlikely the WiiU will top what the Vita has already sold now, never mind after Christmas.
