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Forums - Sales - Global UP! 14th July (This is a sales site! Worst week of the gen?)

Conegamer said:
How quickly things change.

But the PS3 Slim will do next to nothing for the PS3. It may boost sales for a couple weeks, but it won't get close to last year.



You do know the rumored Slim is also rumored to be coming with a price below $200, dont you?

A cheap, slimline PS3 will do great this Holiday. Especially if the rumored $169 price is true.



                            

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ioi, Ive just seen your post in the graphs thread.

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=4689061

It makes me smile.



                            

well it is pretty slow but the big season is on its way again,

is it because the wii evergreen titles have gone,what happened to those



                                                                                                                                        Above & Beyond

   

Conegamer said:

The PS3 is at 4.8mil, but is dropping away YoY significantly. Assuming 750k for December, and 400k for November (PS3 has the weakest holiday), the PS3 would have to sell around 5mil between now and October 31st, or around 320k a week. That's not happening. Even the most positive would put the PS3 at around 10-11mil this year.

So there are 16 more weeks ending Novemeber 3rd, and then 4 weeks for November and December.  Going by your assumptions for November and December, a "positive" prediction would have the PS3 averaging as low as 37.3k over the next 16 weeks.  Even if you were to cut those holiday predictions by 25%, it would need to average less than this weeks sales to end at 10 million.  If that is positive, what would the negative predictions put it at?



let's see now.

1) The home consoles are all a bit long in the tooth. What intelligent person would expect them to still be selling shitloads at this time of year in their old age? Why keep saying these numbers are bad? Did you expect any thing else?

2) At this time of year (probably for the last 3 or 4 years) people always call for price cuts. If a price cut did help it would be greatly negated in terms of revenue when sales picked up over the relative holiday seasons, losing MS, Sony and N'tendo million$.

3) I personally believe the days of the handheld are numbered. Those big sales of days pass are not likely to come again. They are not dead yet, maybe not even on life support but the first death blows have been dealt.



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Conegamer said:
How quickly things change.

But the PS3 Slim will do next to nothing for the PS3. It may boost sales for a couple weeks, but it won't get close to last year.


ps3 slim will do nothing? i just cant understand where your coming from here. ps3 is nearly already the best selling system now even before the price cut/new model, so why will a much cheaper mass market priced ps3 do "next to nothing"?



I know this is a sales site but i never really been that big on console sales, as a gamer they dont really do much for me or to me, i dont have stock in any of the 3 and as this gen has proven the best selling one doesnt automatically mean it will get the "best" support. I am interested in actually game sales just to see how they stack up, but each game has an individual wall. Speaking of games, its kind of strange to see the 3ds game sales do so poorly yet, the system is selling ok. are people just buying Mario?(Ive had mine for months and yet to buy a 3rd party game myself)



oniyide said:
 Speaking of games, its kind of strange to see the 3ds game sales do so poorly yet, the system is selling ok. are people just buying Mario?(Ive had mine for months and yet to buy a 3rd party game myself)

 

In Japan, 3DS owners are buying Dragon Quest, Mario Kart 7, Super Mario 3D Land, Monster Hunter 3G, Fire Emblem Awakening, Kingdom Hearts 3D, Kid Icarus: Uprising, Resident Evil Revelations, Mario Tennis Open, Harvest Moon, Martio & Sonic at the Olympics, Inazuma Eleven, Theatrhythm, Hatsune Miku, New Love Plus, Etrian Odyssey IV, Rhythm Thief, AND Metal Gear Solid 3. Note how many of those are regional exclusivesat this point.

In the USA, 3DS owners are buying Nintendo's four big hardcore titles so far (3D Land, Kart 7, Uprising, and Ocarina), but not much else. Note the absence of more casual titles such as Nintendogs, Mario & Sonic, and Mario Tennis.

In Europe, people are buying the Marios, including the one with Sonic, Resident Evil, Uprising, and Nintendogs. Note how this market is more balanced.

 

My conclusions: People in Japan are buying games, but the American 3DS market is still too niche and hardcore, while the European market is still small. Part of the problem is the platform's lack of non-Japanese games, but it is also hurt by how many games either won't leave Japan or are still being localized.

Fortunately, the upcoming release of NSMB2 and the XL worldwide should boost non-Japanese sales. Oh, Japan will see a huge boost too, especially with Brain Age Demon, but they need it less.



Sigh...I had a really lengthy post here, but it's deleted for whatever reason. Crazy.

Anyway, I failed in my calculations. If the PS3 sells, on average, 130k per week until the holidays, it'll sell an extra 2.08mil from now to October 31st, leaving it at 6.88mil with 2 months to go. Selling 500k then 750k, on AVERAGE, it'll hit 11.88mil by the end of the year, not 10-11mil. 11-12mil seems more realistic.

And the Slim redesign will boost sales by about 100k, no-one really wanted one. But the pricecut could help, another 500k? But sales drop beforehand anyway (read: 3DS), so the overall increase will be around 450k over other figures. The market is saturated, people want new stuff. The Wii has reached it, the 360 is starting to suffer. The PS3 will hit it soon. And when it does, nothing (new games, price cuts) can save it.



 

Here lies the dearly departed Nintendomination Thread.

ioi said:
Carl2291 said:

I could understand where you were coming from if the problems were only recent. Aside from the odd thread, the sales forum has been abysmal for the last Year and a half. We have a new generation of HW and multiple games that can/will sell 5-10 Million+, yet conversation doesnt pick up.

Im not asking for a top 1000 chart. Im asking for the sales tools that were removed. The articles that we no longer get. They were great, they (along with the free data) made the site unique. They added something for users to interact with. It made sales topics interesting It was such ease of use / accessibility that made VGChartz so popular with people.

Other unique features / articles have also disappeared with the sales team. Publisher totals, Japan Preview, Prediction League, Monthly charts, Graphs. Things that encouraged sales chatter. They were brilliant. I understand that were coming swiftly to the end of the console generation, but were also over a Year into a new handheld generation. The 3DS broke records. The Vita tanked. The possibilities for comparison are huge, yet it seems nobody other than the normal forum goer gives a shit.

If the extended charts, graphs and comparison tools didnt go to VGC Pro, then where did they go? Speaking of Pro, btw. How well is it doing? Are we allowed to know? According to the page its still "Coming soon".


Sales discussion has been on the decline ever since 2008 when it was at its peak. What made the sales discussion so important and obsessive in the early days was the console wars - which platform would win? The previous generation was dominated by PS2 and suddenly we saw Wii and to a lesser extent 360 doing better. Wii did some phenomenal numbers in 2007 - 2008 on the back of some enormous games and that drove interest in the console wars. In 2009, things settled and through 2010 -2012 things have been extremely predictable and dull. As the person who runs the site, I don't even have much of an interest in things at the moment - what does that say about the state of the industry? All of the excitement at the moment is from emerging game platforms - Facebook, iOS, Steam, XBL, PSN - games are becoming less and less platform-based now and therefore the interest in whether Nintendo, Sony or Microsoft will "win" doesn't really mean a lot in today's market. The last exciting thing we had from a sales perspective in the console space was Kinect vs Move and that drove a ton of interest for about a month until Kinect emerged as the clear winner. I can't control the industry trends - we can't create excitment around industry trends out of nothing.

Which articles did we have that we no longer get aside from the Japan preview (which was hugely flawed and inaccurate)? The data is still "free" - just limited in how much can be accessed, you can still see the top 100 games each week which is more than enough for 99% of readers. Of everybody who looked at the weekly charts, less than 1% of people ever read beyond the basic top 50 games (either via filters or by going to page 2, 3 etc) so clearly this was of minor interest to a select few (mostly professionals who needed this specific info). The prediction league went about 4 years ago and again the popularity was waning - we went from 120-130 participants in early 2008 to 20-30 by the time it was removed.

The graphs and tools are coming back and are great for comparing two or more items back-to-back - this is about the only feature that I consider is currently "missing" from the site, and even those I don't think would make a great deal of difference to the amount of discussion.

Following the order of the points in your post, the "handheld wars" - nobody cares about. Nobody cared with DS vs PSP, and 3DS is hammering PSV so it is just business as ususal. If it were the other way around and PSV was selling double 3DS then we'd be seeing a lot more interest and discussion on the subject. Who is going to bother discussing Black Ops 2, we all know it will sell a similar amount to BO and MW3? Same with Halo 4, same with the NSMB games. Nothing on the horizon is really that interesting from a sales analysis point of view, hence nobody has anything to say about it!

So again, it is nothing to do with Pro or any other decisions made by the management of this site - sales discussion is quiet because sales are slow, the market is very predictable and there isn't much to talk about.


Things will get interesting again with new PS3 model and Wii U later on this year and PS4&720 next year. But i agree sales has been predictable since early 2010 to this day.