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Forums - Sales Discussion - Dark Knight Rises Box Office Predictions!

Allfreedom99 on 06 July 2012
d21lewis said:
What's going to hurt Batman's bottom line the most when compared to Avengers is that it's not a bright, colorful, family friendly movie. I think Bane is going to beat Batman down for an extremely long amount of time--to the point where it's uncomfortable to watch. Also, there's no 3D version of the film. On top of that, the Joker is THE Batman villain. I love Bane but there are plenty of Bat-Villains that are ten times more iconic than him. Hell, they could have gone with Deathstroke or Deadshot or Lady Shiva or something. At least somebody in marketing decided it was a good idea to include Catwoman.

It will fall just short of the Avengers. In a perfect world, the better movie will be the one that grosses more. Unfortunately, we don't live in a perfect world.

I don't know enough about box office figures to accurately predict how much it will make. Forgive me for not following the format.

good post d21lewis. I agree with a lot of what you said. Due to the movie being much more dark it will be much of an older audience. Avengers attracted a lot of younger kids with their parents. There wont be even close to as many children for this.

And it is true that Joker is THEE Batmn villian. thats the villian that almost everyone living in a civilized area on the planet can name.

The main draw and catalyst for this film is the mystery surrounding Batman's fate, and it being the final movie in the series. That should draw most everyone back for the 3rd movie. But its true there are factors TDK had that TDKR does not.




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WiiBox3 on 06 July 2012
Allfreedom99 said:
WiiBox3 said:
Domestic:

First Day: $75 Million

Opening Weekend: $120 Million

Lifetime Gross: $475 Million

Overseas:

Opening Weekend: 200 Million

Lifetime Gross: $600 Million

Total Gross: $1.08 Billion

Rotten Tomatoes Score: 85%

Not trying to be picky but I couldn't resist commenting on this. sorry :)...

On your prediction for opening day at $75 million and opening weekend at $120 that would probably be one of or Thee most lop sided opening weekend in history. If a movie makes $75 million on Friday and then splits $45 million at lets say $25 million on Saturday and $20 million on Sunday it would be unprecidented. Going from $75 million in opening day and dropping 77% in its second day would mean either a huge natural disaster happened causing people not to go, or it would be the worst hype movie that bombed after its opening day in history. Probably about the worst most movies will drop on its second day would be somewhere around 50%. Actually Harry Potter: DH P2 is ranked 3rd for the biggest Friday to Saturday drops when it went from $91 million on Friday to $42.4 million on Saturday. A 53.43% drop. That was mostly due to almost everyone even wanting to see the last Harry Potter movie were so hyped that they HAD to see it by opening day. TDKR does not have that same affect at that level.

TDKR will indeed have a huge opening day as so much hype is surrounding it, but I don't see TDKR breaking the record for largest Friday to Saturday drop. That would be embarrasing to all involved in bringing the movie to market...and would be a very bad sign for its remaining grosses in the rest of its box office run.


Thanks for catching that. I just threw in the opening day without thinking. I was just thinking opening weekend would be $120m.



Allfreedom99 on 06 July 2012
pezus said:
WiiBox3 said:
Allfreedom99 said:

Not trying to be picky but I couldn't resist commenting on this. sorry :)...

On your prediction for opening day at $75 million and opening weekend at $120 that would probably be one of or Thee most lop sided opening weekend in history. If a movie makes $75 million on Friday and then splits $45 million at lets say $25 million on Saturday and $20 million on Sunday it would be unprecidented. Going from $75 million in opening day and dropping 77% in its second day would mean either a huge natural disaster happened causing people not to go, or it would be the worst hype movie that bombed after its opening day in history. Probably about the worst most movies will drop on its second day would be somewhere around 50%. Actually Harry Potter: DH P2 is ranked 3rd for the biggest Friday to Saturday drops when it went from $91 million on Friday to $42.4 million on Saturday. A 53.43% drop. That was mostly due to almost everyone even wanting to see the last Harry Potter movie were so hyped that they HAD to see it by opening day. TDKR does not have that same affect at that level.

TDKR will indeed have a huge opening day as so much hype is surrounding it, but I don't see TDKR breaking the record for largest Friday to Saturday drop. That would be embarrasing to all involved in bringing the movie to market...and would be a very bad sign for its remaining grosses in the rest of its box office run.

Thanks for catching that. I just threw in the opening day without thinking. I was just thinking opening weekend would be $120m.

120m is pretty low though. It would be a disaster if it opened like that. 

120 would be a disapointment for opening weekend. To be considered a successful ending to the trilogy this movie should at the very least earn $135-140 million opening weekend and thats at the very bottom. Im not saying $120 is impossible for it to go that low if expectations are much too high than what reality is. Even so I would suspect the hype meter is extremely high especially for those who saw TDK.

So I expect it to have a very sizeable opening weekend and more likely to taper off faster through the rest of its box office run....Unless the movie is raved about as even better than TDK then this movie will have some big legs and will surpass the previous. But I still think the former scenario is more likely.




dsage01 on 06 July 2012
Allfreedom99 said:
dsage01 said:
Many people are doubting my $900 million prediction (domestic) and I did expect that but now I'll clear it all up for people who have a hard time understanding.

Domestic:
Batman Begins: Weekend Opening: $48,745,440
The Dark Knight: Weekend Opening: $158,411,483

That is an increase of an estimated 3.2 times! When there was no big difference in the the budget between both movies. This was mostly because of the high response the first film got from IMDB and Rotten Tomatoes. The second film only exceeded the first film when it came to early reviews and the IMDB response was overwhelming. Due to that fact that the The Dark Knight had over the top reviews from critics and it is one of the highest rated films on IMDB it will exceed the Dark Knight in opening weekend drastically. And movies such as the Avengers and Amazing Spiderman also increased the female audiences for super hero movies and therefore the same effect will possibly happen.

Another important factor is the huge increase of hype in this film which makes it possible to be the biggest film of all time domestically.

Did you read my previous response to you in my massive book post?

The jump from Batman Begins to The Dark Knight is very understandable. When Batman Begins was released much of the movie going audience was probably in the mindset of where the last Batman movies left off....of which Batman and Robin was dredfully bad. Many movie goers just werent interested until more people saw it when it came out on physical media. Then they realized it was really good.

The Dark Knight had a HUGE draw. previews depicted an intense storyline with the king of villains...the Joker. Trailers looked extremely good and audiences were itching for the next Batman. Throw in Heath Ledger's last full movie and you have a historic blockbuster on your hands.

Audiences loved the Dark Knight so many of them will return for The Dark Knight Rises. My issue however with your prediction is the $300 million domestic opening weekend. This is virtually impossible when you look at the data and all the facts. EVEN IF it breaks the record for Widest opening Theatre release which is currently set by Twilight:Eclipse Which was 4,468 locations there is simply not enough locations available that could generate enough for it to have a $300 million opening weekend. I think the best potential it could possibly have would be in the low $200 million range but I don't see a possibility of it going anywhere north of $220 million opening weekend. While it is true that there are a lot more IMAX locations now when compared to TDK, it is also true that it is not being released in 3D. The added IMAX locations will help its initial opening weekend, but not having 3D will hurt its potential. Avengers shattered the record for average $ per theatre at $47,698 from 4,349 locations. Many theatres were sold out. Even if TDKR matches that $ per theatre (which is extremely unlikely due to no 3D release) and breaks the Widest Release record at lets say 4,500 locations we are still looking at a $214.6 million opening weekend. Not even a prayer of reaching $300 million.

Honestly I hope this movie does very well. I LOVE this series, but I don't see any possibility of it going anything past the $220 million mark. If this movie even hits $215 million mark it would be on the grounds of a miracle.

My prediction was $181 million. At its very absolute best it will be in the $205-$215 million range if it definitely comes close or breaks the widest theatre release record.

Okay I'm just expecting it to beat the Avengers World Wide Total nothing more. And it will probably beat the record for opening weekend domestically and World Wide. Lets make a bet if the Dark Knight Rises gets an 80% + fresh from Rotten Tomatoes and at least an intial score of 7.2 from IMDB I beleive it will break the domestic opening weekend record. And you prediciting by your $181 million weekend box office say it will not do a better weekend box office than the Avengers. So if the Dark Knight Rises gets a higher weekend BO following the nessescites I win the bet if the Dark Knight Rises does not do better domestic weekend BO than the Avengers following the minimum expectations you win the bet. Deal? 



AndrewWK on 06 July 2012

I say 800mill. But people should not expect too much from this movie. After the Dark Knight this can only be a slight dissapointment.



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Allfreedom99 on 06 July 2012
dsage01 said:
Allfreedom99 said:
dsage01 said:
Many people are doubting my $900 million prediction (domestic) and I did expect that but now I'll clear it all up for people who have a hard time understanding.

Domestic:
Batman Begins: Weekend Opening: $48,745,440
The Dark Knight: Weekend Opening: $158,411,483

That is an increase of an estimated 3.2 times! When there was no big difference in the the budget between both movies. This was mostly because of the high response the first film got from IMDB and Rotten Tomatoes. The second film only exceeded the first film when it came to early reviews and the IMDB response was overwhelming. Due to that fact that the The Dark Knight had over the top reviews from critics and it is one of the highest rated films on IMDB it will exceed the Dark Knight in opening weekend drastically. And movies such as the Avengers and Amazing Spiderman also increased the female audiences for super hero movies and therefore the same effect will possibly happen.

Another important factor is the huge increase of hype in this film which makes it possible to be the biggest film of all time domestically.

Did you read my previous response to you in my massive book post?

The jump from Batman Begins to The Dark Knight is very understandable. When Batman Begins was released much of the movie going audience was probably in the mindset of where the last Batman movies left off....of which Batman and Robin was dredfully bad. Many movie goers just werent interested until more people saw it when it came out on physical media. Then they realized it was really good.

The Dark Knight had a HUGE draw. previews depicted an intense storyline with the king of villains...the Joker. Trailers looked extremely good and audiences were itching for the next Batman. Throw in Heath Ledger's last full movie and you have a historic blockbuster on your hands.

Audiences loved the Dark Knight so many of them will return for The Dark Knight Rises. My issue however with your prediction is the $300 million domestic opening weekend. This is virtually impossible when you look at the data and all the facts. EVEN IF it breaks the record for Widest opening Theatre release which is currently set by Twilight:Eclipse Which was 4,468 locations there is simply not enough locations available that could generate enough for it to have a $300 million opening weekend. I think the best potential it could possibly have would be in the low $200 million range but I don't see a possibility of it going anywhere north of $220 million opening weekend. While it is true that there are a lot more IMAX locations now when compared to TDK, it is also true that it is not being released in 3D. The added IMAX locations will help its initial opening weekend, but not having 3D will hurt its potential. Avengers shattered the record for average $ per theatre at $47,698 from 4,349 locations. Many theatres were sold out. Even if TDKR matches that $ per theatre (which is extremely unlikely due to no 3D release) and breaks the Widest Release record at lets say 4,500 locations we are still looking at a $214.6 million opening weekend. Not even a prayer of reaching $300 million.

Honestly I hope this movie does very well. I LOVE this series, but I don't see any possibility of it going anything past the $220 million mark. If this movie even hits $215 million mark it would be on the grounds of a miracle.

My prediction was $181 million. At its very absolute best it will be in the $205-$215 million range if it definitely comes close or breaks the widest theatre release record.

Okay I'm just expecting it to beat the Avengers World Wide Total nothing more. And it will probably beat the record for opening weekend domestically and World Wide. Lets make a bet if the Dark Knight Rises gets an 80% + fresh from Rotten Tomatoes and at least an intial score of 7.2 from IMDB I beleive it will break the domestic opening weekend record. And you prediciting by your $181 million weekend box office say it will not do a better weekend box office than the Avengers. So if the Dark Knight Rises gets a higher weekend BO following the nessescites I win the bet if the Dark Knight Rises does not do better domestic weekend BO than the Avengers following the minimum expectations you win the bet. Deal? 

So the stipulations are if it gets 80% or above on Rotten Tomatoes, and at least a score of 7.2 on IMDB then you believe it will surpass Avengers total opening weekend of $207,438,708 million?

What are your suggested outcomes of the bet? Just sheer ego boost for the winner, and a sense of humility for the loser? Or are you wanting to add more to this wager? As long as there is no $ involved Im likely good with it.




Allfreedom99 on 06 July 2012
dsage01 said:
Allfreedom99 said:

Did you read my previous response to you in my massive book post?

The jump from Batman Begins to The Dark Knight is very understandable. When Batman Begins was released much of the movie going audience was probably in the mindset of where the last Batman movies left off....of which Batman and Robin was dredfully bad. Many movie goers just werent interested until more people saw it when it came out on physical media. Then they realized it was really good.

The Dark Knight had a HUGE draw. previews depicted an intense storyline with the king of villains...the Joker. Trailers looked extremely good and audiences were itching for the next Batman. Throw in Heath Ledger's last full movie and you have a historic blockbuster on your hands.

Audiences loved the Dark Knight so many of them will return for The Dark Knight Rises. My issue however with your prediction is the $300 million domestic opening weekend. This is virtually impossible when you look at the data and all the facts. EVEN IF it breaks the record for Widest opening Theatre release which is currently set by Twilight:Eclipse Which was 4,468 locations there is simply not enough locations available that could generate enough for it to have a $300 million opening weekend. I think the best potential it could possibly have would be in the low $200 million range but I don't see a possibility of it going anywhere north of $220 million opening weekend. While it is true that there are a lot more IMAX locations now when compared to TDK, it is also true that it is not being released in 3D. The added IMAX locations will help its initial opening weekend, but not having 3D will hurt its potential. Avengers shattered the record for average $ per theatre at $47,698 from 4,349 locations. Many theatres were sold out. Even if TDKR matches that $ per theatre (which is extremely unlikely due to no 3D release) and breaks the Widest Release record at lets say 4,500 locations we are still looking at a $214.6 million opening weekend. Not even a prayer of reaching $300 million.

Honestly I hope this movie does very well. I LOVE this series, but I don't see any possibility of it going anything past the $220 million mark. If this movie even hits $215 million mark it would be on the grounds of a miracle.

My prediction was $181 million. At its very absolute best it will be in the $205-$215 million range if it definitely comes close or breaks the widest theatre release record.

Okay I'm just expecting it to beat the Avengers World Wide Total nothing more. And it will probably beat the record for opening weekend domestically and World Wide. Lets make a bet if the Dark Knight Rises gets an 80% + fresh from Rotten Tomatoes and at least an intial score of 7.2 from IMDB I beleive it will break the domestic opening weekend record. And you prediciting by your $181 million weekend box office say it will not do a better weekend box office than the Avengers. So if the Dark Knight Rises gets a higher weekend BO following the nessescites I win the bet if the Dark Knight Rises does not do better domestic weekend BO than the Avengers following the minimum expectations you win the bet. Deal? 

keep in mind the current record for World Wide opening weekend is held by Harry Potter DH P2 and stands at a staggering $483.2 Million. Avengers was $392.5. Dark Knight was $199.7 (Granted it hadn't opened in all territories yet, but that is the case with many movies). I understand its not part of your bet but if you think TDKR "will probably beat the record for opening weekend World Wide" it would be a huge and daunting feat. It will have impressive World Wide opening weekend numbers but to get the record is something else entirely.




dsage01 on 07 July 2012
Allfreedom99 said:
dsage01 said:
Allfreedom99 said:
dsage01 said:
Many people are doubting my $900 million prediction (domestic) and I did expect that but now I'll clear it all up for people who have a hard time understanding.

Domestic:
Batman Begins: Weekend Opening: $48,745,440
The Dark Knight: Weekend Opening: $158,411,483

That is an increase of an estimated 3.2 times! When there was no big difference in the the budget between both movies. This was mostly because of the high response the first film got from IMDB and Rotten Tomatoes. The second film only exceeded the first film when it came to early reviews and the IMDB response was overwhelming. Due to that fact that the The Dark Knight had over the top reviews from critics and it is one of the highest rated films on IMDB it will exceed the Dark Knight in opening weekend drastically. And movies such as the Avengers and Amazing Spiderman also increased the female audiences for super hero movies and therefore the same effect will possibly happen.

Another important factor is the huge increase of hype in this film which makes it possible to be the biggest film of all time domestically.

Did you read my previous response to you in my massive book post?

The jump from Batman Begins to The Dark Knight is very understandable. When Batman Begins was released much of the movie going audience was probably in the mindset of where the last Batman movies left off....of which Batman and Robin was dredfully bad. Many movie goers just werent interested until more people saw it when it came out on physical media. Then they realized it was really good.

The Dark Knight had a HUGE draw. previews depicted an intense storyline with the king of villains...the Joker. Trailers looked extremely good and audiences were itching for the next Batman. Throw in Heath Ledger's last full movie and you have a historic blockbuster on your hands.

Audiences loved the Dark Knight so many of them will return for The Dark Knight Rises. My issue however with your prediction is the $300 million domestic opening weekend. This is virtually impossible when you look at the data and all the facts. EVEN IF it breaks the record for Widest opening Theatre release which is currently set by Twilight:Eclipse Which was 4,468 locations there is simply not enough locations available that could generate enough for it to have a $300 million opening weekend. I think the best potential it could possibly have would be in the low $200 million range but I don't see a possibility of it going anywhere north of $220 million opening weekend. While it is true that there are a lot more IMAX locations now when compared to TDK, it is also true that it is not being released in 3D. The added IMAX locations will help its initial opening weekend, but not having 3D will hurt its potential. Avengers shattered the record for average $ per theatre at $47,698 from 4,349 locations. Many theatres were sold out. Even if TDKR matches that $ per theatre (which is extremely unlikely due to no 3D release) and breaks the Widest Release record at lets say 4,500 locations we are still looking at a $214.6 million opening weekend. Not even a prayer of reaching $300 million.

Honestly I hope this movie does very well. I LOVE this series, but I don't see any possibility of it going anything past the $220 million mark. If this movie even hits $215 million mark it would be on the grounds of a miracle.

My prediction was $181 million. At its very absolute best it will be in the $205-$215 million range if it definitely comes close or breaks the widest theatre release record.

Okay I'm just expecting it to beat the Avengers World Wide Total nothing more. And it will probably beat the record for opening weekend domestically and World Wide. Lets make a bet if the Dark Knight Rises gets an 80% + fresh from Rotten Tomatoes and at least an intial score of 7.2 from IMDB I beleive it will break the domestic opening weekend record. And you prediciting by your $181 million weekend box office say it will not do a better weekend box office than the Avengers. So if the Dark Knight Rises gets a higher weekend BO following the nessescites I win the bet if the Dark Knight Rises does not do better domestic weekend BO than the Avengers following the minimum expectations you win the bet. Deal? 

So the stipulations are if it gets 80% or above on Rotten Tomatoes, and at least a score of 7.2 on IMDB then you believe it will surpass Avengers total opening weekend of $207,438,708 million?

What are your suggested outcomes of the bet? Just sheer ego boost for the winner, and a sense of humility for the loser? Or are you wanting to add more to this wager? As long as there is no $ involved Im likely good with it.


Two options:

1. Loser gives password for VGC acount to winner

2. Loser does something really stupid he gets banned fo at least 3 days

So is that a deal...



dsage01 on 07 July 2012
pezus said:
dsage01 said:

Okay I'm just expecting it to beat the Avengers World Wide Total nothing more. And it will probably beat the record for opening weekend domestically and World Wide. Lets make a bet if the Dark Knight Rises gets an 80% + fresh from Rotten Tomatoes and at least an intial score of 7.2 from IMDB I beleive it will break the domestic opening weekend record. And you prediciting by your $181 million weekend box office say it will not do a better weekend box office than the Avengers. So if the Dark Knight Rises gets a higher weekend BO following the nessescites I win the bet if the Dark Knight Rises does not do better domestic weekend BO than the Avengers following the minimum expectations you win the bet. Deal? 

WTH?! 7.2 lol. It will be at something like 9.5 for the first days, but that means nothing for the opening weekend (or not that much, anyway). Keep in mind that Avengers had 3D.


Keep in mind this is the sequel to the greatest movie of last decade according to people. Anything less than $214 million for the domestic opening weekend will be a complete disaster. 



d21lewis on 07 July 2012

I hear the movie is going to be close to three hours long, too. Longer movie=Less Showings per day. Less showings=Less Money

I don't see how Batman making less money or not breaking records could be a disaster, though. Yeah, the expectations are high (and, with Batman being my favorite character ever, I hope it's the number one movie of all time!) but as long as the movie is good/great and the creators make a tidy profit, who's going to complain? Certainly not me.