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Forums - Sales - MS SONY NINTY Financials due... Shipment predictions?

TeddostheFireKing on 05 July 2012

I'm gonna use some low numbers here and say we overtracked really badly

Wii: 400K
360: 600K
PS3: 800K



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DirtyP2002 on 05 July 2012
kowenicki said:
theprof00 said:
Darth Tigris said:
theprof00 said:
kowenicki said:

thats not microsofts decision....

you are talking nonsense.


Except last time you were wondering how it could be possible for ms to be stocking so many consoles and then I retorted that MS could have shipped ot itself for the 99$ deal. Then you guys said "for one store?! You're out of your mind". Then suddenly all the major outlets carry the deal.

I said it would make sense for MS to overship based on a price drop, and it was denied. Meanwhile, it looks like all the major outlets are using this same pricing model. Will you ever admit that maybe outlets have too much stock and are trying to push them out?

His point (if I understand it correctly) is that MS (along with Sony and Nintendo) ships what the retailers order, not whatever they want to ship.  It's overshipping if the retail sales are far below sales expectations.  And that overshipping should be compensated for by a decrease in orders/shipments in subsequent quarters.

OT: Sorry, but I'm awful at these predictions.

I do agree that this time the shipments should be lower, but being above 600k does not prove our numbers are wrong, just that some people may (again) just not understand where they are or what they are doing there. Last time we got our answer, against the "facts" that were being "presented".


no.. really... we didnt.

"Will you ever admit that maybe outlets have too much stock and are trying to push them out?"  and yet they keep ordering them from MS? it simply doesnt make sense. a shipment anywhere near 1m is way too much for the numbers here to be correct, and yes... it really is that simple.

If the number is 700k or less then I am satisfied that we are in the ball park.

What is your prediction?

 

It works like this:

 

store manager: "Okay, we have 150 PS3s, 120 Wiis and 300 360s - while the PS3 sells more on a weekly basis. We should be fine the next 45 days with PS3s and 90 days with 360s"

General manager: "Don't worry, I will call MS and order more 360s."

This is the logic spread here.


The word overshipping should be something that gets you banned. YOU CAN'T OVERSHIP. Thank you.



Imagine not having GamePass on your console...

Barozi on 05 July 2012

I remember when Mazty claimed that MS shipped several hundred k of their Kinect Star Wars bundles. Now it all makes sense, because those bundles will never sell out, thus the stores are having 500k Kinect bundles in stock but are still ordering the normal 360 SKU.



cookingyourmama on 05 July 2012
kowenicki said:
cookingyourmama said:
kowenicki said:
cookingyourmama said:
kowenicki said:
ethomaz said:
360 - 1.3m
Wii - 0.9m
PS3 - 1.9m


Which would mean roughly 3 months supply (or 14 weeks or 98 days)... wayyy too much.

Shipment has to be less than 0.6m for there to be no significant adjustment required.

0.6m shipped would mean about 45 days supply.... still higher than supply in June 2012 and June 2011

Hahahaha no, just no, keep fighting the good fight to try and get the numbers how you want them.

er... sorry?

did they over supply or not?

if they did you must agree with me, if they didnt and you think the number should be higher then you are effectively calling for an adjustment.

Nope you tried this last time and failed then as well. You seem to not grasp that it's possibile Microsoft are choosing to have more consoles in the supply chain than its competitors.

thats not microsofts decision....

you are talking nonsense.

Nope you're just plain wrong on so many levels. To begin with you have no idea how many 360's Microsoft like to have in the retail channel compared to its competitors, you have no idea what special discount incentives Microsoft offer retails to buy in more 360's, you have no idea how many they ship to their own stores and you have no idea how many extra 360's are needed in the retail channel to cover the fact that there are more versions of the 360 available than any other console.

Then their's the actual numbers themselves which you've got completely wrong as well. At the end of June for each year Microsoft has shipped the following LTD totals:

2006 -   5.0 million
2007 - 11.6 million
2008 - 20.3 million
2009 - 31.5 million
2010 - 41.8 million
2011 - 55.3 million

To the nearest week at the end of June here are Vgchartz totals for the same points in time:

2006 -   3.70 million
2007 - 10.39 million
2008 - 18.99 million
2009 - 30.22 million
2010 - 40.53 million
2011 - 54.33 million

So at the end of June each year Microsoft has had the follow amount of 360's in the retail channel:

2006 -  1.30 million
2007 -  1.21 million
2008 -  1.31 million
2009 -  1.28 million
2010 -  1.27 million
2011 -  0.97 million

Which is a range of 0.97 million to 1.31 million with the average being 1.22 million, which is a very consistant set of numbers.

As of last quarter Microsoft shipped 67.20 million and Vgchartz numbers for the end of June will be roughly 67.17 million leaving 0.03 million 360's on shelves. To get the number of 360's in the retail channel back up to where Microsoft normally have them then they need to ship between 0.94 million and 1.28 million.

In simple terms:

If Microsoft ship less than 0.94 million then Vgchartz is likely over tracking the 360.

If Microsoft ship between 0.94 million and 1.28 million then Vgchartz is likely correct with its 360 numbers.

If Microsoft ship over 1.28 million Vgchartz is likely under tracking the 360.



theprof00 on 05 July 2012
kowenicki said:
theprof00 said:
Darth Tigris said:
theprof00 said:
kowenicki said:

thats not microsofts decision....

you are talking nonsense.


Except last time you were wondering how it could be possible for ms to be stocking so many consoles and then I retorted that MS could have shipped ot itself for the 99$ deal. Then you guys said "for one store?! You're out of your mind". Then suddenly all the major outlets carry the deal.

I said it would make sense for MS to overship based on a price drop, and it was denied. Meanwhile, it looks like all the major outlets are using this same pricing model. Will you ever admit that maybe outlets have too much stock and are trying to push them out?

His point (if I understand it correctly) is that MS (along with Sony and Nintendo) ships what the retailers order, not whatever they want to ship.  It's overshipping if the retail sales are far below sales expectations.  And that overshipping should be compensated for by a decrease in orders/shipments in subsequent quarters.

OT: Sorry, but I'm awful at these predictions.

I do agree that this time the shipments should be lower, but being above 600k does not prove our numbers are wrong, just that some people may (again) just not understand where they are or what they are doing there. Last time we got our answer, against the "facts" that were being "presented".


no.. really... we didnt.

"Will you ever admit that maybe outlets have too much stock and are trying to push them out?"  and yet they keep ordering them from MS? it simply doesnt make sense. a shipment anywhere near 1m is way too much for the numbers here to be correct, and yes... it really is that simple.

If the number is 700k or less then I am satisfied that we are in the ball park.

What is your prediction?

Well, have any new markets opened up?
There's a lot of things I'm not considering here.

Does MS and its distributors use a tiered bulk purchasing metric as most computer hardware companies do?
New markets? PRice drops in other markets?

Basically, is there anything we aren't considering? Otherwise I'd say in the range of 700-850k.

 

Anyway, kind of an off-topic question. Why is it you never make predictions about other consoles, or when you do, are always off, but when you make predictions about 360 you're always accurate? :D



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cookingyourmama on 05 July 2012
kowenicki said:
cookingyourmama said:
kowenicki said:
cookingyourmama said:
kowenicki said:
cookingyourmama said:
kowenicki said:
ethomaz said:
360 - 1.3m
Wii - 0.9m
PS3 - 1.9m


Which would mean roughly 3 months supply (or 14 weeks or 98 days)... wayyy too much.

Shipment has to be less than 0.6m for there to be no significant adjustment required.

0.6m shipped would mean about 45 days supply.... still higher than supply in June 2012 and June 2011

Hahahaha no, just no, keep fighting the good fight to try and get the numbers how you want them.

er... sorry?

did they over supply or not?

if they did you must agree with me, if they didnt and you think the number should be higher then you are effectively calling for an adjustment.

Nope you tried this last time and failed then as well. You seem to not grasp that it's possibile Microsoft are choosing to have more consoles in the supply chain than its competitors.

thats not microsofts decision....

you are talking nonsense.

Nope you're just plain wrong on so many levels. To begin with you have no idea how many 360's Microsoft like to have in the retail channel compared to its competitors, you have no idea what special discount incentives Microsoft offer retails to buy in more 360's, you have no idea how many they ship to their own stores and you have no idea how many extra 360's are needed in the retail channel to cover the fact that there are more versions of the 360 available than any other console.

Then their's the actual numbers themselves which you've got completely wrong as well. At the end of June for each year Microsoft has shipped the following LTD totals:

2006 -   5.0 million
2007 - 11.6 million
2008 - 20.3 million
2009 - 31.5 million
2010 - 41.8 million
2011 - 55.3 million

To the nearest week at the end of June here are Vgchartz totals for the same points in time:

2006 -   3.70 million
2007 - 10.39 million
2008 - 18.99 million
2009 - 30.22 million
2010 - 40.53 million
2011 - 54.33 million

So at the end of June each year Microsoft has had the follow amount of 360's in the retail channel:

2006 -  1.30 million
2007 -  1.21 million
2008 -  1.31 million
2009 -  1.28 million
2010 -  1.27 million
2011 -  0.97 million

Which is a range of 0.97 million to 1.31 million with the average being 1.22 million, which is a very consistant set of numbers.

As of last quarter Microsoft shipped 67.20 million and Vgchartz numbers for the end of June will be roughly 67.17 million leaving 0.03 million 360's on shelves. To get the number of 360's in the retail channel back up to where Microsoft normally have them then they need to ship between 0.94 million and 1.28 million.

In simple terms:

If Microsoft ship less than 0.94 million then Vgchartz is likely over tracking the 360.

If Microsoft ship between 0.94 million and 1.28 million then Vgchartz is likely correct with its 360 numbers.

If Microsoft ship over 1.28 million Vgchartz is likely under tracking the 360.

utterly clueless..

you cant look at the numbers in supply in isolation... you have to look at the avearge weekly sales at those times... i.e. how many DAYS of supply is there given vurrent sales trends.

You are wrong and its pointless talking to you as you dont even realise how wrong you are.

Hahahaha you couldn't be more wrong if you tried. Every single year at the end of June the amount Microsoft was selling has been all over the place:

2006 -    79,000
2007 -    80,000
2008 -  111,000
2009 -  106,000
2010 -  201,000
2011 -  149,000

Despite this Microsoft choose to keep the amount in the retail chain all most the same.



theprof00 on 05 July 2012
kowenicki said:

because I am the CEO of logistics for 360's at ms?


J'accuse! Sarcasm isn't usually a good way of getting out of a question :D

You don't have to work for MS to have that info though lol. Maybe you're a distributor, or maybe you print their boxes. I had noticed the box quality going down slightly.



theprof00 on 05 July 2012

Anyway, with your insider info, what is your "prediction"?



Aielyn on 05 July 2012
DirtyP2002 said:

The word overshipping should be something that gets you banned. YOU CAN'T OVERSHIP. Thank you.

Technically, you can. It involves sending more than was asked. But that would be an error, not an action - that is, it they wouldn't include it in the "shipped" numbers, it would be a mistake.



theprof00 on 05 July 2012
kowenicki said:
theprof00 said:
Anyway, with your insider info, what is your "prediction"?


already posted.

No, you didn't but thanks for your helpful reply.

What is your prediction using the assumption that vgc is wrong? .94 to 1.2?