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cookingyourmama on 05 July 2012
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kowenicki said:
cookingyourmama said:
kowenicki said:
cookingyourmama said:
kowenicki said:
ethomaz said:
360 - 1.3m
Wii - 0.9m
PS3 - 1.9m


Which would mean roughly 3 months supply (or 14 weeks or 98 days)... wayyy too much.

Shipment has to be less than 0.6m for there to be no significant adjustment required.

0.6m shipped would mean about 45 days supply.... still higher than supply in June 2012 and June 2011

Hahahaha no, just no, keep fighting the good fight to try and get the numbers how you want them.

er... sorry?

did they over supply or not?

if they did you must agree with me, if they didnt and you think the number should be higher then you are effectively calling for an adjustment.

Nope you tried this last time and failed then as well. You seem to not grasp that it's possibile Microsoft are choosing to have more consoles in the supply chain than its competitors.

thats not microsofts decision....

you are talking nonsense.

Nope you're just plain wrong on so many levels. To begin with you have no idea how many 360's Microsoft like to have in the retail channel compared to its competitors, you have no idea what special discount incentives Microsoft offer retails to buy in more 360's, you have no idea how many they ship to their own stores and you have no idea how many extra 360's are needed in the retail channel to cover the fact that there are more versions of the 360 available than any other console.

Then their's the actual numbers themselves which you've got completely wrong as well. At the end of June for each year Microsoft has shipped the following LTD totals:

2006 -   5.0 million
2007 - 11.6 million
2008 - 20.3 million
2009 - 31.5 million
2010 - 41.8 million
2011 - 55.3 million

To the nearest week at the end of June here are Vgchartz totals for the same points in time:

2006 -   3.70 million
2007 - 10.39 million
2008 - 18.99 million
2009 - 30.22 million
2010 - 40.53 million
2011 - 54.33 million

So at the end of June each year Microsoft has had the follow amount of 360's in the retail channel:

2006 -  1.30 million
2007 -  1.21 million
2008 -  1.31 million
2009 -  1.28 million
2010 -  1.27 million
2011 -  0.97 million

Which is a range of 0.97 million to 1.31 million with the average being 1.22 million, which is a very consistant set of numbers.

As of last quarter Microsoft shipped 67.20 million and Vgchartz numbers for the end of June will be roughly 67.17 million leaving 0.03 million 360's on shelves. To get the number of 360's in the retail channel back up to where Microsoft normally have them then they need to ship between 0.94 million and 1.28 million.

In simple terms:

If Microsoft ship less than 0.94 million then Vgchartz is likely over tracking the 360.

If Microsoft ship between 0.94 million and 1.28 million then Vgchartz is likely correct with its 360 numbers.

If Microsoft ship over 1.28 million Vgchartz is likely under tracking the 360.