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Forums - Sales - MS SONY NINTY Financials due... Shipment predictions?

theprof00 on 05 July 2012
kowenicki said:
theprof00 said:
kowenicki said:
theprof00 said:
Anyway, with your insider info, what is your "prediction"?


already posted.

No, you didn't but thanks for your helpful reply.

What is your prediction using the assumption that vgc is wrong? .94 to 1.2?


I dont "assume" vgc is wrong... but if the shipment number is north of 0.7m they now must be wrong... I have no idea what they would be then as all the sales data that could help come to a conclusion is broken.... it would be an uneducated stab in the dark.. whats the point?

Wii and PS3 can reasonably be predicted as the shipment and sell through are reasonable.

You have predictions for last Financial statement right? You have NPD and euro numbers right? Imagine that your last financial statement prediction was right, use the NPD and euro numbers we've had since then, and gimme a number, please. I know you have a number.



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cookingyourmama on 05 July 2012
kowenicki said:
cookingyourmama said:
kowenicki said:
cookingyourmama said:
kowenicki said:
cookingyourmama said:
kowenicki said:
cookingyourmama said:
kowenicki said:
ethomaz said:
360 - 1.3m
Wii - 0.9m
PS3 - 1.9m


Which would mean roughly 3 months supply (or 14 weeks or 98 days)... wayyy too much.

Shipment has to be less than 0.6m for there to be no significant adjustment required.

0.6m shipped would mean about 45 days supply.... still higher than supply in June 2012 and June 2011

Hahahaha no, just no, keep fighting the good fight to try and get the numbers how you want them.

er... sorry?

did they over supply or not?

if they did you must agree with me, if they didnt and you think the number should be higher then you are effectively calling for an adjustment.

Nope you tried this last time and failed then as well. You seem to not grasp that it's possibile Microsoft are choosing to have more consoles in the supply chain than its competitors.

thats not microsofts decision....

you are talking nonsense.

Nope you're just plain wrong on so many levels. To begin with you have no idea how many 360's Microsoft like to have in the retail channel compared to its competitors, you have no idea what special discount incentives Microsoft offer retails to buy in more 360's, you have no idea how many they ship to their own stores and you have no idea how many extra 360's are needed in the retail channel to cover the fact that there are more versions of the 360 available than any other console.

Then their's the actual numbers themselves which you've got completely wrong as well. At the end of June for each year Microsoft has shipped the following LTD totals:

2006 -   5.0 million
2007 - 11.6 million
2008 - 20.3 million
2009 - 31.5 million
2010 - 41.8 million
2011 - 55.3 million

To the nearest week at the end of June here are Vgchartz totals for the same points in time:

2006 -   3.70 million
2007 - 10.39 million
2008 - 18.99 million
2009 - 30.22 million
2010 - 40.53 million
2011 - 54.33 million

So at the end of June each year Microsoft has had the follow amount of 360's in the retail channel:

2006 -  1.30 million
2007 -  1.21 million
2008 -  1.31 million
2009 -  1.28 million
2010 -  1.27 million
2011 -  0.97 million

Which is a range of 0.97 million to 1.31 million with the average being 1.22 million, which is a very consistant set of numbers.

As of last quarter Microsoft shipped 67.20 million and Vgchartz numbers for the end of June will be roughly 67.17 million leaving 0.03 million 360's on shelves. To get the number of 360's in the retail channel back up to where Microsoft normally have them then they need to ship between 0.94 million and 1.28 million.

In simple terms:

If Microsoft ship less than 0.94 million then Vgchartz is likely over tracking the 360.

If Microsoft ship between 0.94 million and 1.28 million then Vgchartz is likely correct with its 360 numbers.

If Microsoft ship over 1.28 million Vgchartz is likely under tracking the 360.

utterly clueless..

you cant look at the numbers in supply in isolation... you have to look at the avearge weekly sales at those times... i.e. how many DAYS of supply is there given vurrent sales trends.

You are wrong and its pointless talking to you as you dont even realise how wrong you are.

Hahahaha you couldn't be more wrong if you tried. Every single year at the end of June the amount Microsoft was selling has been all over the place:

2006 -    79,000
2007 -    80,000
2008 -  111,000
2009 -  106,000
2010 -  201,000
2011 -  149,000

Despite this Microsoft choose to keep the amount in the retail chain all most the same.


http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=129135

Yep seen your thread and the days of supply are all over the place and prove nothing, however the total amount of xbox 360's in the retail chain at this time of year has been consitant...... keep trying.



cookingyourmama on 05 July 2012
kowenicki said:
theprof00 said:
kowenicki said:
theprof00 said:
Anyway, with your insider info, what is your "prediction"?


already posted.

No, you didn't but thanks for your helpful reply.

What is your prediction using the assumption that vgc is wrong? .94 to 1.2?


I dont "assume" vgc is wrong... but if the shipment number is north of 0.7m they now must be wrong... I have no idea what they would be then as all the sales data that could help come to a conclusion is broken.... it would be an uneducated stab in the dark.. whats the point?

Wii and PS3 can reasonably be predicted as the shipment and sell through are reasonable.

Nope i've already proved you wrong. If the 360 ships less than 0.94 million then Vgchartz is over tracking the 360.  If Microsoft ship between 0.94 million and 1.28 million then Vgchartz is likely correct.  If Microsoft ship over 1.28 million Vgchartz is under tracking the 360. 



DirtyP2002 on 05 July 2012

arguing with cookingyourmama is like banging your head against a wall. You might break the wall, but it isn't worth it.



Imagine not having GamePass on your console...

cookingyourmama on 05 July 2012
DirtyP2002 said:

arguing with cookingyourmama is like banging your head against a wall. You might break the wall, but it isn't worth it.

Please prove me wrong with facts or go away and stop trolling, thank you.

Moderated - Kantor



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DirtyP2002 on 05 July 2012
cookingyourmama said:
DirtyP2002 said:

arguing with cookingyourmama is like banging your head against a wall. You might break the wall, but it isn't worth it.

Please prove me wrong with facts or go away and stop trolling, thank you.


you are prove-resistant.

Check my sig for example.

or try to explain why it is just natural that the Xbox 360 has 3  times more consoles in stores than the PS3.
You come up with so much nonsense like Microsoft-stores ordering more than they need as if the % of MS stores of all the stores worldwide that sell 360s would be significant.

How can you overship in the first place? Retailers ORDER from MS. IF they have enough consoles in supply, why  should they order more? Because MS goes to Gamestop telling "buy them or we will punish you!" ?!

We are talking about messed up VGC data and you try to prove people wrong with... VGC data from last year.

Anyway. Head, wall, hurting.



Imagine not having GamePass on your console...

cookingyourmama on 05 July 2012
DirtyP2002 said:
cookingyourmama said:
DirtyP2002 said:

arguing with cookingyourmama is like banging your head against a wall. You might break the wall, but it isn't worth it.

Please prove me wrong with facts or go away and stop trolling, thank you.


you are prove-resistant.

Check my sig for example.

or try to explain why it is just natural that the Xbox 360 has 3  times more consoles in stores than the PS3.
You come up with so much nonsense like Microsoft-stores ordering more than they need as if the % of MS stores of all the stores worldwide that sell 360s would be significant.

How can you overship in the first place? Retailers ORDER from MS. IF they have enough consoles in supply, why  should they order more? Because MS goes to Gamestop telling "buy them or we will punish you!" ?!

We are talking about messed up VGC data and you try to prove people wrong with... VGC data from last year.

Anyway. Head, wall, hurting.

To begin with your Sig refers to shipped numbers not sold & at different points through different generations certain consoles makers have chosen to have more consoles in the supply chain than others, it's as simple as that. In just the past two years there's been 3 quarters where Sony has had more in the supply chain than Microsoft, and in December 2010 Sony had more than 3 times the amount of ps3's in the retail chain compared to 360's. These things happen and they are a normal part of the console/retail cycle.

On top of all of that for Vgchartz numbers to be wrong then that means NPD, GFK, Media Create, Famitsu, Nintendo's sales charts and all other independent sources of sales data are wrong as well because they all match up and don't show the 360 selling more worldwide.



theprof00 on 05 July 2012
DirtyP2002 said:
cookingyourmama said:
DirtyP2002 said:

arguing with cookingyourmama is like banging your head against a wall. You might break the wall, but it isn't worth it.

Please prove me wrong with facts or go away and stop trolling, thank you.


you are prove-resistant.

Check my sig for example.

or try to explain why it is just natural that the Xbox 360 has 3  times more consoles in stores than the PS3.
You come up with so much nonsense like Microsoft-stores ordering more than they need as if the % of MS stores of all the stores worldwide that sell 360s would be significant.

How can you overship in the first place? Retailers ORDER from MS. IF they have enough consoles in supply, why  should they order more? Because MS goes to Gamestop telling "buy them or we will punish you!" ?!

We are talking about messed up VGC data and you try to prove people wrong with... VGC data from last year.

Anyway. Head, wall, hurting.

Volume discount? Does that factor into these calculations?

Oh and last time, that was me saying MS over-ordered. I was told it didn't make sense for only MS stores to order that much. The word came out that they had a pseudo price-drop. Then all big retailers had the same thing. Crazy huh?



DirtyP2002 on 06 July 2012
theprof00 said:
DirtyP2002 said:
cookingyourmama said:
DirtyP2002 said:

arguing with cookingyourmama is like banging your head against a wall. You might break the wall, but it isn't worth it.

Please prove me wrong with facts or go away and stop trolling, thank you.


you are prove-resistant.

Check my sig for example.

or try to explain why it is just natural that the Xbox 360 has 3  times more consoles in stores than the PS3.
You come up with so much nonsense like Microsoft-stores ordering more than they need as if the % of MS stores of all the stores worldwide that sell 360s would be significant.

How can you overship in the first place? Retailers ORDER from MS. IF they have enough consoles in supply, why  should they order more? Because MS goes to Gamestop telling "buy them or we will punish you!" ?!

We are talking about messed up VGC data and you try to prove people wrong with... VGC data from last year.

Anyway. Head, wall, hurting.

Volume discount? Does that factor into these calculations?

Oh and last time, that was me saying MS over-ordered. I was told it didn't make sense for only MS stores to order that much. The word came out that they had a pseudo price-drop. Then all big retailers had the same thing. Crazy huh?

 

Holiday season last year: Retailes over-ordered! They expected more sales, because of the insane black friday business! It is okay to almost double the  days of supply for the Xbox 360 compared to the PS3!

March 2012: $399 Kinect Star Wars bundle (how mass market is that price tag?)  made retailers order more 360s, even though they had plenty of supply. It is okay to more than triple the days of supply for the Xbos 360 compared to the PS3.

June 2012 (without any numbers revealed! Yet damage control already working!):Retailers are ordering just because the $99 sale, which turns out to be a $459 deal. It is okay for the Xbox 360 to have more supply.

 

Just wait till we get the numbers. Maybe MS ships 0.6 million and VGC is right.



Imagine not having GamePass on your console...

cookingyourmama on 06 July 2012
DirtyP2002 said:
theprof00 said:
DirtyP2002 said:
cookingyourmama said:
DirtyP2002 said:

arguing with cookingyourmama is like banging your head against a wall. You might break the wall, but it isn't worth it.

Please prove me wrong with facts or go away and stop trolling, thank you.


you are prove-resistant.

Check my sig for example.

or try to explain why it is just natural that the Xbox 360 has 3  times more consoles in stores than the PS3.
You come up with so much nonsense like Microsoft-stores ordering more than they need as if the % of MS stores of all the stores worldwide that sell 360s would be significant.

How can you overship in the first place? Retailers ORDER from MS. IF they have enough consoles in supply, why  should they order more? Because MS goes to Gamestop telling "buy them or we will punish you!" ?!

We are talking about messed up VGC data and you try to prove people wrong with... VGC data from last year.

Anyway. Head, wall, hurting.

Volume discount? Does that factor into these calculations?

Oh and last time, that was me saying MS over-ordered. I was told it didn't make sense for only MS stores to order that much. The word came out that they had a pseudo price-drop. Then all big retailers had the same thing. Crazy huh?

 

Holiday season last year: Retailes over-ordered! They expected more sales, because of the insane black friday business! It is okay to almost double the  days of supply for the Xbox 360 compared to the PS3!

March 2012: $399 Kinect Star Wars bundle (how mass market is that price tag?)  made retailers order more 360s, even though they had plenty of supply. It is okay to more than triple the days of supply for the Xbos 360 compared to the PS3.

June 2012 (without any numbers revealed! Yet damage control already working!):Retailers are ordering just because the $99 sale, which turns out to be a $459 deal. It is okay for the Xbox 360 to have more supply.

 

Just wait till we get the numbers. Maybe MS ships 0.6 million and VGC is right.

If Microsoft ships 0.6 million then Vgchartz is over tracking the 360, If MS ships between 0.94 - 1.28 million THEN Vgchartz would be correct