In 2006/07 the end of the generation wasn't just around the corner. Stores not knowing the intentions of MS or other Players in the market aren't going to order 2 months supply of a console and if they don't order it MS can't ship it to them. You keep saying MS like to have that many units in the retail chain but it isn't up to them how many units are ordered.

First of all - both you and kowenicki need to start trimming your quotes, this is getting ridiculous.

Second of all, it's not cherry picking to look at last year and use that as a guide to this year. What is different about 2011-2012 compared with 2006-2007 is that early in the generation, there was anticipation of increasing sales and a pattern of sales that were increasing year over year. That is no longer true - we're in the tail end of the generation, sales are in decline - as noted, sales have dropped from 140,000 a week in 2011 to 80-90,000 a week in 2012.

Beyond that, though, you completely ignore that in all previous years, MS had over 1.2 million in supply... but in 2011, it dropped to below 1 million. You intentionally ignore that the outlier sits in the most significant position (the most recent data point) in order to make your claim. If the supply dropped in 2011, why did it drop? Is it reasonable to conclude that it will have returned to a higher number this year?

Logic dictates that the retailers have noticed a decrease in sales, and will be reducing their call for more stock. Of course, the whole "number of days of stock" argument is a poor one, but it doesn't invalidate the conclusion, which is that one would expect stock to be decreasing as retailers anticipate the coming of the next generation and notice a decrease in sales of the current gen systems.

What amazes me is that you seem to think that MS are maintaining the 1.3 million or so in supply. MS don't have any say in it. Retailers order the stock they think they need, and there's no reason to think that they're going to want over 1 million in stock now, given the circumstances.

While I don't think it'll be 0.6 million, I'm betting it'll be below 0.8 million, and VGChartz will not be overtracking. It's worth also pointing out that, whereas Gears of War 3 was releasing within 13 weeks at the equivalent point last year, Halo 4 isn't due for about 20 weeks this year, and those are the notable 360 exclusives for the respective time periods. In other words, there's less reason to expect an upcoming boost to system sales numbers.

Word it how ever you like, MS choosing, or retailers choosing to have a certain amount in the retail chain, but never the less that's what they choose to have.

It is cherry picking when that one year is the exception to the rule and as well as that only one aspect of it is treated as a fact whilst the actual total number itself is just swept under the rug.

The problem is you're just guessing at what the retailers thought and as well as that, at that point in time the 360's April-June average weekly sales had decreased from 98,000 to 79,000 from 2006 to 2007 yet the retailers still ordered a very high number leaving over 1.2 million on shelves which was a similar amount.

The amount of days of supply in the retail chain when it comes to the 360 is all over the place, it's not very consistant at all and is a very poor method of trying to state as a fact what the next shipment will be and wether anything is over or undertracked.

The next generation hasn't started yet and it won't start in the next quarter of sales either. On top of that the WiiU isn't going to magically save everything and the retailers know that the only way that they're going to have a good year is if the 360 and ps3 sell VERY well over the second half of the year. The retailers want the consoles to sell well and of course Microsoft is going to tell them "Yeah order loads, everybody is going to want our console, we've got all these great games coming out, price drops, special deals, yeah order loads" so for all you know that's what retailers are doing.

MS can't chose how many they ship. You should really got that by now.

So it is up to retailers. Why should retailer have 1 million more Xbox 360 consoles in stores than PS3s even though the PS3s are selling at a faster rate the first half of 2012? You still failed to give us a reasonable answer.

Retail space costs money. What you are trying to tell everybody, makes zero sense.

Messed up quote trees and messed up arguments...

MS isn't shipping 300-500k more than retailers ordered during the slow season, it doesn't work that way.

You are actually the one who is ignoring significant data points. It isn't cherry-picking to pay attention to the entire sequence and attempt to understand the variations that occurred.

Why did retailers order so many Xbox 360s in mid-2007? Probably the same as why they ordered so many PS3s in late 2006 - misjudgment of the market. It's easy to misjudge the market early in the generation. Late in the generation, it becomes old faithful, it's hard to misjudge it.

I specifically noted that number of days in the supply chain is the wrong argument to use. A much healthier one is the actual total - and the total showed a distinct drop in 2011 - the question becomes "why?", and that's the question that you have failed to answer. Until you can provide an answer to that question that doesn't consist of ignoring it or just pretending that the variation for the entire generation has been big enough to include it (when all of the others were within about 0.1 million of each other, and this was 0.24 million below the next-smallest), you have failed to provide an argument for why it should be around 0.94+ million in order to be right.

I have provided a solid explanation for why it dropped in 2011 that is consistent with a prediction of 0.6-0.8 million in 2012. You have not provided a solid explanation for why it dropped in 2011, and your prediction for 2012 basically sums up to "somewhere between the limits we've seen so far", which is like seeing that you have the sequence 1,2,4,8, and predicting that the next number in the sequence will be somewhere between 1 and 8.

Meanwhile, you seem to think that retailers think like gaming community members. They don't. They're not going to order extra units of a console in the hopes that it will sell better as a result. They order based on how they judge the market, and the market for the 360 looks slower than it has been since 2007. You also seem to think that the retailers are going to listen to Microsoft hyping their system, and then not do any of their own research. Which games do you think are coming out for the 360 in the next 3 months, that would convince retailers that there'll be a boost to 360 sales? No, seriously, name a few, because the only one I'm aware of is Halo 4, and that's not out for another 19 weeks.

Oh dear, oh dear. Just because i said Microsoft likes to have a certain amount in the retail channel doesn't in anyway change the fact that ultimately retailers have the final say on how many they want, and i've never said otherwise. And of course it's impossible that Microsoft go out of there way to give retailers breaks on buying in bulk and try to shift more consoles by doing special deals in stores like we've seen over the past few months. Retailers don't have 1 million more Xbox 360 consoles in stores than PS3's, lol. Last quarter it was 840,000 and this quarter Sony are expected to outship Microsoft by several hundred thousand and that will reduce the gap even further. You do realise that even if Microsoft ship 1.2 million xbox's this quarter that's still less then what they've sold this quarter.

Microsoft sold just under 1.3 million xbox360's this quarter, to ship more than 300-500k than retailers ordered would mean they'd have to ship 1.6-1.8 million and nobody is saying they're going to do that.

is this really a prediction thread?