By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Sales - MS SONY NINTY Financials due... Shipment predictions?

cookingyourmama on 07 July 2012
Aielyn said:
cookingyourmama said:
It is cherry picking when that one year is the exception to the rule and as well as that only one aspect of it is treated as a fact whilst the actual total number itself is just swept under the rug.

The problem is you're just guessing at what the retailers thought and as well as that, at that point in time the 360's April-June average weekly sales had decreased from 98,000 to 79,000 from 2006 to 2007 yet the retailers still ordered a very high number leaving over 1.2 million on shelves which was a similar amount.

The amount of days of supply in the retail chain when it comes to the 360 is all over the place, it's not very consistant at all and is a very poor method of trying to state as a fact what the next shipment will be and wether anything is over or undertracked.

The next generation hasn't started yet and it won't start in the next quarter of sales either. On top of that the WiiU isn't going to magically save everything and the retailers know that the only way that they're going to have a good year is if the 360 and ps3 sell VERY well over the second half of the year. The retailers want the consoles to sell well and of course Microsoft is going to tell them "Yeah order loads, everybody is going to want our console, we've got all these great games coming out, price drops, special deals, yeah order loads" so for all you know that's what retailers are doing.

You are actually the one who is ignoring significant data points. It isn't cherry-picking to pay attention to the entire sequence and attempt to understand the variations that occurred.

Why did retailers order so many Xbox 360s in mid-2007? Probably the same as why they ordered so many PS3s in late 2006 - misjudgment of the market. It's easy to misjudge the market early in the generation. Late in the generation, it becomes old faithful, it's hard to misjudge it.

I specifically noted that number of days in the supply chain is the wrong argument to use. A much healthier one is the actual total - and the total showed a distinct drop in 2011 - the question becomes "why?", and that's the question that you have failed to answer. Until you can provide an answer to that question that doesn't consist of ignoring it or just pretending that the variation for the entire generation has been big enough to include it (when all of the others were within about 0.1 million of each other, and this was 0.24 million below the next-smallest), you have failed to provide an argument for why it should be around 0.94+ million in order to be right.

I have provided a solid explanation for why it dropped in 2011 that is consistent with a prediction of 0.6-0.8 million in 2012. You have not provided a solid explanation for why it dropped in 2011, and your prediction for 2012 basically sums up to "somewhere between the limits we've seen so far", which is like seeing that you have the sequence 1,2,4,8, and predicting that the next number in the sequence will be somewhere between 1 and 8.

Meanwhile, you seem to think that retailers think like gaming community members. They don't. They're not going to order extra units of a console in the hopes that it will sell better as a result. They order based on how they judge the market, and the market for the 360 looks slower than it has been since 2007. You also seem to think that the retailers are going to listen to Microsoft hyping their system, and then not do any of their own research. Which games do you think are coming out for the 360 in the next 3 months, that would convince retailers that there'll be a boost to 360 sales? No, seriously, name a few, because the only one I'm aware of is Halo 4, and that's not out for another 19 weeks.

The problem with your entire arguement is that it is based just on a guess as to what retailers did last year and in previous years, yet you take that guess and you try and state it as fact when in reaility it is just your opinion. You have no idea in what quarters retailers over ordered, under ordered, or got it just right, to try and claim otherwise is asinine. For all you know retailers during the same quarter last year under ordered then had to over order in the next few quarters to make up for it, when it comes down to it you have no idea, just guesses.

For example as far as anybody can see in the Dec 2010 quarter retailers/Microsoft undershipped, so in the Jan-April 2011 quarter they then had to overship to make up for it.... but then who's to say they didn't overship too much and then had to undership during the March-June Quarter? You have no idea. There's been countless quarters where Sony have had more in the retail chain, significantly more in fact, it happens and it's just part of the console retail cycle.



Around the Network
DirtyP2002 on 07 July 2012
cookingyourmama said:
DirtyP2002 said:
cookingyourmama said:
legend92(3) said:
cookingyourmama said:
kowenicki said:
cookingyourmama said:
 

Oh dear, you couldn't be more wrong again if you tried, looks like i'll have to prove you wrong again with more facts.

Apart from the fact that i have proven that since the start of this generation at this time of year Microsoft has ALWAYS had between 0.97 million and 1.31 million xbox360's in the retail chain, you want to keep deluding yourself that Microsoft having just 0.60 million in the retail chain at the end of this quarter is some how normal, lol.

But hey lets talk about the days of retail supply, since you keep banging on about it. Since the start of this generation Microsoft have had the following average weekly sales for each quarter ending the month of June:

2006 -    98,000
2007 -    79,000
2008 -  117,000
2009 -  106,000
2010 -  128,000
2011 -  144,000

And at the end of each of those quarters Microsoft have had the following amounts of xbox360's in the retail chain:

2006 -  1.30 million
2007 -  1.21 million
2008 -  1.31 million
2009 -  1.28 million
2010 -  1.27 million
2011 -  0.97 million

When you look at how many days worth of supply that works out to you get:

2006 =  93 days
2007 = 107 days
2008 =  78 days
2009 =  85 days
2010 =  70 days
2011 =  47 days

That's a range of 47 to 107 days worth of supply in the retail chain with the average being 80 days.

Wether you like the FACT or not Microsoft like to have anything from a 7 to 15 WEEKS worth of supply in the retail channel at this time of year with the average being 11 and a half weeks

For the quarter that has just gone by Microsoft averaged 99,000 xbox360's per week. Just taking the average of Microsoft liking to have 80 days worth of supply that means MS would ship 1,132,000 Million consoles. Your 600,000 which you keep pulling out of your *** is completely deluded and void of fact.

History again... thanks... averages... thanks?  supply in June 2011 was 47 days... you think retailers will be buying enough to take that to over 100 days of supply given the OBVIOUS decline in sales and given the fact that most (including you) thought they over supplied in EACH of the last two quarters, over supply on top of over supply on top of over supply? 

..........?

Cherry picking only one year and only one aspect of it ignoring every other single fact again? Thanks. Just because in one quarter of one year out of dozens of quarters that number is close (still higher than what you say actually, lol) to what you want it to be doesn't make it a fact.

Having over 2 months worth of supply is normal for MS wether you like it or not.

And on top of that Microsoft were selling less per week in 2006 and 2007 compared to 2012 yet they still had over 1.2 million in the retail chain.

In 2006/07 the end of the generation wasn't just around the corner. Stores not knowing the intentions of MS or other Players in the market aren't going to order 2 months supply of a console and if they don't order it MS can't ship it to them. You keep saying MS like to have that many units in the retail chain but it isn't up to them how many units are ordered.

Word it how ever you like, MS choosing, or retailers choosing to have a certain amount in the retail chain, but never the less that's what they choose to have.

MS can't chose how many they ship. You should really got that by now.

So it is up to retailers. Why should retailer have 1 million more Xbox 360 consoles in stores than PS3s even though the PS3s are selling at a faster rate the first half of 2012? You still failed to give us a reasonable answer.

 

Retail space costs money. What you are trying to tell everybody, makes zero sense.

Oh dear, oh dear. Just because i said Microsoft likes to have a certain amount in the retail channel doesn't in anyway change the fact that ultimately retailers have the final say on how many they want, and i've never said otherwise. And of course it's impossible that Microsoft go out of there way to give retailers breaks on buying in bulk and try to shift more consoles by doing special deals in stores like we've seen over the past few months. Retailers don't have 1 million more Xbox 360 consoles in stores than PS3's, lol. Last quarter it was 840,000 and this quarter Sony are expected to outship Microsoft by several hundred thousand and that will reduce the gap even further. You do realise that even if Microsoft ship 1.2 million xbox's this quarter that's still less then what they've sold this quarter.

you still failed to answer my question I asked you about 5 times now.



Imagine not having GamePass on your console...

cookingyourmama on 07 July 2012
DirtyP2002 said:
you still failed to answer my question I asked you about 5 times now.

It's kinda hard to answer your question of "Why should retailers have 1 million more Xbox 360 consoles in stores than PS3s?" when there aren't more than 1 million xbox360's in stores than PS3's in the first place.



Nsanity on 07 July 2012
D-Joe said:
is this really a prediction thread?

More like a wishful thinking thread.



Aielyn on 08 July 2012
cookingyourmama said:
The problem with your entire arguement is that it is based just on a guess as to what retailers did last year and in previous years, yet you take that guess and you try and state it as fact when in reaility it is just your opinion. You have no idea in what quarters retailers over ordered, under ordered, or got it just right, to try and claim otherwise is asinine. For all you know retailers during the same quarter last year under ordered then had to over order in the next few quarters to make up for it, when it comes down to it you have no idea, just guesses.

For example as far as anybody can see in the Dec 2010 quarter retailers/Microsoft undershipped, so in the Jan-April 2011 quarter they then had to overship to make up for it.... but then who's to say they didn't overship too much and then had to undership during the March-June Quarter? You have no idea. There's been countless quarters where Sony have had more in the retail chain, significantly more in fact, it happens and it's just part of the console retail cycle.

It's not a guess, it's an hypothesis. I opened the opportunity for you to offer an alternative hypothesis that might actually explain the change, yet you have yet to do so - your only argument is "maybe retailers under-ordered"... completely ignoring the fact that retailers aren't a monolithic, unified force - statistically, it is very unlikely that tens of thousands of retailers all under-ordered, and did so last year specifically.

And if they'd ordered too much in Jan-March, then they would have had too much stock - "supply" includes the net stock from previous oversupply. In other words, the "undership" in April-June would have renormalised the stock, not dropped it below the normal.

I'm sure there have been quite a few (far from countless) quarters where Sony have had more in the retail chain - I really don't see what bearing that has on the topic.

Now, I'm going to ask you, once again, to come up with a solid explanation for why that change would have happened, and why it only happened in 2011, and not in previous years.



Around the Network
DirtyP2002 on 08 July 2012
cookingyourmama said:
DirtyP2002 said:
you still failed to answer my question I asked you about 5 times now.

It's kinda hard to answer your question of "Why should retailers have 1 million more Xbox 360 consoles in stores than PS3s?" when there aren't more than 1 million xbox360's in stores than PS3's in the first place.


So why should retailers have 2.83 times more Xbox 360s in stores than PS3s?

OR

Why should retailers have 3.62 times more days of supply for the Xbox 360 than the PS3?

For both questions, please keep in mind MS can't tell retailers how many they should order.



Imagine not having GamePass on your console...

cookingyourmama on 08 July 2012
Aielyn said:
cookingyourmama said:
The problem with your entire arguement is that it is based just on a guess as to what retailers did last year and in previous years, yet you take that guess and you try and state it as fact when in reaility it is just your opinion. You have no idea in what quarters retailers over ordered, under ordered, or got it just right, to try and claim otherwise is asinine. For all you know retailers during the same quarter last year under ordered then had to over order in the next few quarters to make up for it, when it comes down to it you have no idea, just guesses.

For example as far as anybody can see in the Dec 2010 quarter retailers/Microsoft undershipped, so in the Jan-April 2011 quarter they then had to overship to make up for it.... but then who's to say they didn't overship too much and then had to undership during the March-June Quarter? You have no idea. There's been countless quarters where Sony have had more in the retail chain, significantly more in fact, it happens and it's just part of the console retail cycle.

It's not a guess, it's an hypothesis. I opened the opportunity for you to offer an alternative hypothesis that might actually explain the change, yet you have yet to do so - your only argument is "maybe retailers under-ordered"... completely ignoring the fact that retailers aren't a monolithic, unified force - statistically, it is very unlikely that tens of thousands of retailers all under-ordered, and did so last year specifically.

And if they'd ordered too much in Jan-March, then they would have had too much stock - "supply" includes the net stock from previous oversupply. In other words, the "undership" in April-June would have renormalised the stock, not dropped it below the normal.

I'm sure there have been quite a few (far from countless) quarters where Sony have had more in the retail chain - I really don't see what bearing that has on the topic.

Now, I'm going to ask you, once again, to come up with a solid explanation for why that change would have happened, and why it only happened in 2011, and not in previous years.

As much as you want to dress it up as something else it is still just you guessing, which is nothing more than your opinion wether you like it or not.

Right i will give an example one more time, if you don't get it then that's your problem not mine.

In the October-Decemeber 2010 quarter Microsoft launched Kinect. It was a brand new never seen before piece of hardware that completely changed the game for Microsoft, it changed them from mainly appealing to just the hardcore gamer, to also appealing to the casual gamer as well. The Nintendo Wii's sales were dying, casual gamers had become bored with the system and retailers had to take an educated guess as to how much Kinect would push Xbox360's sales with both the casual and hardcore gamers. They made a guess and as it turns out they got it wrong, very wrong. Retailers heavily under ordered the 360 that holiday and by the end of December there were sell outs and the 360 was very hard to come by. Over the first few months of the following quarter retailers had to order in a record amount of 360's to not only cover there previous under ordering to get supply back up to a reasonable level but to also cover all the extra sales that quarter gained from people who wanted to buy a Kinect for Christmas but couldn't because it was sold out. For the first few months of 2011 Kinects sales were still great, however they soon slowed down and fell off the edge of a cliff due to a lack of new games being released for it and the novelty/promise of the hardware wearing off pretty quickly. Retailers for months on end were ordering in the 360 like it was the new Nintendo Wii but when the bubble burst and they realised it wasn't the new Wii they dramatically cut back on the amount they were ordering in and the knock on affect of that is maybe they took it too far again by slightly under ordered for the April-June 2011 quarter which left the amount in the retail supply chain slightly lower than previous years.

In short the introduction of Kinect a brand new piece of hardware caused a massive disruption to the 360 retail supply chain because for months on end retailers were unsure and left guessing as to how much hardware they should order in to cover this new fad. Now you don't have to a agree with me that this definitely what happened, but it is possibility at that's what you asked for.

And the reason why i brought up the PS3? As just another example of a piece of hardware being under or over ordered by retailers and at times having large amounts sat in the retail chain.



cookingyourmama on 08 July 2012
DirtyP2002 said:
cookingyourmama said:
DirtyP2002 said:
you still failed to answer my question I asked you about 5 times now.

It's kinda hard to answer your question of "Why should retailers have 1 million more Xbox 360 consoles in stores than PS3s?" when there aren't more than 1 million xbox360's in stores than PS3's in the first place.


So why should retailers have 2.83 times more Xbox 360s in stores than PS3s?

OR

Why should retailers have 3.62 times more days of supply for the Xbox 360 than the PS3?

For both questions, please keep in mind MS can't tell retailers how many they should order.

1. Only the retailers know the true answer to that but that's what they like to do, since both the 360 and the ps3 have been on sale, in 20 out of 22 sales quarters, retailers have chosen to have more 360's in the retail chain compared to the ps3 despite the fact that 14 out of those 22 quarters the ps3 has out sold the 360.

2. One possible explanation is the retailers in the countries in which the 360 sells best like to have more consoles in stock when compared to the retailers in the countries that the ps3 sells best.

3. And more specifically right now if you've been following the news you'd know that it is likely Sony are releasing a brand new even smaller version of the PS3 in the next month or so. If this is the case then that would explain why there is an extra low amount of PS3's in stock in the retail channel, as Sony will be phasing out the current model and it doesn't make any sense to have loads of the old model lying around.



DirtyP2002 on 08 July 2012
cookingyourmama said:
DirtyP2002 said:
cookingyourmama said:
DirtyP2002 said:
you still failed to answer my question I asked you about 5 times now.

It's kinda hard to answer your question of "Why should retailers have 1 million more Xbox 360 consoles in stores than PS3s?" when there aren't more than 1 million xbox360's in stores than PS3's in the first place.


So why should retailers have 2.83 times more Xbox 360s in stores than PS3s?

OR

Why should retailers have 3.62 times more days of supply for the Xbox 360 than the PS3?

For both questions, please keep in mind MS can't tell retailers how many they should order.

1. Only the retailers know the true answer to that but that's what they like to do, since both the 360 and the ps3 have been on sale, in 20 out of 22 sales quarters, retailers have chosen to have more 360's in the retail chain compared to the ps3 despite the fact that 14 out of those 22 quarters the ps3 has out sold the 360.

2. One possible explanation is the retailers in the countries in which the 360 sells best like to have more consoles in stock when compared to the retailers in the countries that the ps3 sells best.

3. And more specifically right now if you've been following the news you'd know that it is likely Sony are releasing a brand new even smaller version of the PS3 in the next month or so. If this is the case then that would explain why there is an extra low amount of PS3's in stock in the retail channel, as Sony will be phasing out the current model and it doesn't make any sense to have loads of the old model lying around.

so you can't provide a rational answer.

Thanks.



Imagine not having GamePass on your console...

yo_john117 on 08 July 2012

360: 800k
Wii: 500k
PS3: 1.6 million.