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Forums - Sales - How long until PS3 overtakes the 360 in total sales?

HappySqurriel on 16 January 2008
MrMafoo said:
crumas2 said:

I would agree that the PS3 cell CPU has a greater theoretical potential than the 3-core CPU used in the 360, and that certain wave effects, etc. can be done better/faster with high-performance bit-blitters such as the cell's SPEs (Krik and I have discussed this at length, and I concur with his assessment regarding what the SPEs are capable of).  However, 20-30 times faster than the 360?  Where did you come up with that? It's quite a leap to say that the cell processor overcomes the 3 general purpose cores in the 360's CPU by such an amazing amount.

Here is my suggestion for you... talk to those who ported Folding-at-Home to the PS3 and ask them if they feel that the PS3 is 20-30 times as powerful as the 360.  My guess is they'll laugh at the suggestion.  It's blazing fast, but in specific, limited ways.


As you know, the overall performance of a system is as lot of things, from memory speed, bus design, CPU, GPU, Storage access speed, OS, and many other factors.

In no way am I claiming the 360 is 20-30 times faster than the 360. I am claiming at very specific things, it can be as much as 20-30 times faster.

Nothing might ever come out of that speed (as rocketpig says with his “ifs”, and can very well be right).

But when people say it can’t be done, is where I step in. There is a lot of untapped power in the PS3 that a lot of people (including me) have no clue how to harness. That does not mean it won’t be utilized by someone smarter than I am.

 

BTW: Here is an example of getting more than 20x the speed of the PPC in the CELL with utilizing 1 SPU (it’s for the medical industry). The PPC in the cell is on par with a single core in the 360. So if the 360 is 3x faster than the CELL’s PPC, then the CELL’s SPU’s are collectively 46x faster than the 360 at this type of calculation. ((20x7)/3). Grated this is just a rough estimate, and other things would have to be taken into account in order to use all 7 SPU’s, and I realize you would never actually get 46x the usage due to overhead, but it’s evidence that what we are looking at in the CELL is far faster, at specific things, then the 360.

http://www-01.ibm.com/chips/techlib/techlib.nsf/techdocs/5B1968BDD8D11639872570AB005A3A39/$file/GSPx2005paper%20for%20sdk.pdf

 

 


So SPE's are magic now, is the Cell processor produced by a process which involves love?

The Cells basic architecture is very similar to DSPs which have been in production for decades; in general, many DSPs include a central core and several simple (typically super-scaler RISC) cores and give up more powerful instructions (that would be in a CISC processor) in favour of having the ability to process in parallel more generically.

At best, each SPE would be able to match the per-cycle performance of a core from the XBox 360s CPU. Being that the Cell can divide an algorithm into more parallel processing units as a whole it should be able to outperform the XBox 360's CPU in many algorithms.

Each SPE in the Cell is far less powerful that the XBox 360's CPU in any algorithm you can run, but overall the Cell may be more powerful with parallel algorithms like the fast fourier transform or recursive raytracing.



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CrazzyMan on 16 January 2008

@Nidan:
just a few questions.

1) You think, that all people who care about MGS4, KZ2, R2, LBP, GT5, T6, FFXIII, WKS, GoW3 already bought ps3, Right?
2) people who care about MGS4, KZ2, R2, LBP, GT5, T6, FFXIII, WKS, GoW3 are SAME people, Right?
3) by how much there will be increase (if there will be), when all these MGS4, KZ2, R2, LBP, GT5, T6, FFXIII, WKS, GoW3 games will be released?

and yes, PS3 need to outsell x360 by 140k every week to match x360 numbers, for now it`s:
70k behind on previous week, and 125k behind this week.
BUT numbers are very close to ps2 numbers of 2001 and ps2 sold 16 mln. in 2001 with MGS2, FFX, GTA3, DMC, GT3. =)



Every 5 seconds on earth one child dies from hunger...

2009.04.30 - PS3 will OUTSELL x360 atleast by the middle of 2010. Japan+Europe > NA.


Gran Turismo 3 - 1,06 mln. in 3 weeks with around 4 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Gran Turismo 4 - 1,16 mln. with 18 mln. PS2 on the launch.

Final Fantasy X - around 2 mln. with 5 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Final Fantasy X-2 - 2.4 mln. with 12 mln. PS2 on the launch.

 

1.8 mln. PS3 today(2008.01.17) in Japan. Now(2009.04.30) 3.16 mln. PS3 were sold in Japan.
PS3 will reach 4 mln. in Japan by the end of 2009 with average weekly sales 25k.

PS3 may reach 5 mln. in Japan by the end of 2009 with average weekly sales 50k.
PS2 2001 vs PS3 2008 sales numbers =) + New games released in Japan by 2009 that passed 100k so far

NJ5 on 16 January 2008
thx1138 said:
Just calculated it out. PS3 will pass the 360 in 558 weeks at the current pace.

That's not good news, 558 weeks puts us outside the 10-year lifecycle...

Now seriously, Microsoft has the ball on its side of the field now. If they choose to do a $75-100 price cut, god help Sony.

 



My Mario Kart Wii friend code: 2707-1866-0957

CrazzyMan on 16 January 2008

Now seriously, when MGS4, KZ2, R2, LBP, GT5, T6, FFXIII, WKS, GoW3 will be released on PS3, nothing will help x360. =))

price cuts didn`t helped GC/xbox, why would help to x360? a mystery. =))



Every 5 seconds on earth one child dies from hunger...

2009.04.30 - PS3 will OUTSELL x360 atleast by the middle of 2010. Japan+Europe > NA.


Gran Turismo 3 - 1,06 mln. in 3 weeks with around 4 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Gran Turismo 4 - 1,16 mln. with 18 mln. PS2 on the launch.

Final Fantasy X - around 2 mln. with 5 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Final Fantasy X-2 - 2.4 mln. with 12 mln. PS2 on the launch.

 

1.8 mln. PS3 today(2008.01.17) in Japan. Now(2009.04.30) 3.16 mln. PS3 were sold in Japan.
PS3 will reach 4 mln. in Japan by the end of 2009 with average weekly sales 25k.

PS3 may reach 5 mln. in Japan by the end of 2009 with average weekly sales 50k.
PS2 2001 vs PS3 2008 sales numbers =) + New games released in Japan by 2009 that passed 100k so far

rocketpig on 16 January 2008
CrazzyMan said:
Now seriously, when MGS4, KZ2, R2, LBP, GT5, T6, FFXIII, WKS, GoW3 will be released on PS3, nothing will help x360. =))

price cuts didn`t helped GC/xbox, why would help to x360? a mystery. =))




Or check out my new webcomic: http://selfcentent.com/

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CrazzyMan on 16 January 2008
rocketpig said:
CrazzyMan said:
Now seriously, when MGS4, KZ2, R2, LBP, GT5, T6, FFXIII, WKS, GoW3 will be released on PS3, nothing will help x360. =))

price cuts didn`t helped GC/xbox, why would help to x360? a mystery. =))



Every 5 seconds on earth one child dies from hunger...

2009.04.30 - PS3 will OUTSELL x360 atleast by the middle of 2010. Japan+Europe > NA.


Gran Turismo 3 - 1,06 mln. in 3 weeks with around 4 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Gran Turismo 4 - 1,16 mln. with 18 mln. PS2 on the launch.

Final Fantasy X - around 2 mln. with 5 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Final Fantasy X-2 - 2.4 mln. with 12 mln. PS2 on the launch.

 

1.8 mln. PS3 today(2008.01.17) in Japan. Now(2009.04.30) 3.16 mln. PS3 were sold in Japan.
PS3 will reach 4 mln. in Japan by the end of 2009 with average weekly sales 25k.

PS3 may reach 5 mln. in Japan by the end of 2009 with average weekly sales 50k.
PS2 2001 vs PS3 2008 sales numbers =) + New games released in Japan by 2009 that passed 100k so far

leo-j on 16 January 2008
CrazzyMan said:
rocketpig said:
CrazzyMan said:
Now seriously, when MGS4, KZ2, R2, LBP, GT5, T6, FFXIII, WKS, GoW3 will be released on PS3, nothing will help x360. =))

price cuts didn`t helped GC/xbox, why would help to x360? a mystery. =))


What crazzyman said

 

mM
HappySqurriel on 16 January 2008
CrazzyMan said:
Now seriously, when MGS4, KZ2, R2, LBP, GT5, T6, FFXIII, WKS, GoW3 will be released on PS3, nothing will help x360. =))

price cuts didn`t helped GC/xbox, why would help to x360? a mystery. =))

You're right, price cuts and game releases tend to have a very small impact for every system; typically the system that sells the best in a generation sells well from begining to end and consumers don't need additional reasons to buy it. This is why the PS3 and XBox 360 will not see dramatically higher sales in the future, and why it is nearly impossible for the PS3 to outsell the XBox 360 in this generation.



CrazzyMan on 16 January 2008

@HappySqurriel,

1) usually:
Japan - 20% of the console sales.
USA - 40% of the console sales.
Europe - 40% of the console sales.
PS1 Sony Mar-2007 21.59 40.78 40.12 102.49
PS2 Sony Mar-2007 25.42 47.68 44.79 117.89
60% vs 40%.

2) How MANY Big BRAND exclusive games were released on PS3?
3) How MANY Big BRAND exclusive games will be released on PS3 in 2008?



Every 5 seconds on earth one child dies from hunger...

2009.04.30 - PS3 will OUTSELL x360 atleast by the middle of 2010. Japan+Europe > NA.


Gran Turismo 3 - 1,06 mln. in 3 weeks with around 4 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Gran Turismo 4 - 1,16 mln. with 18 mln. PS2 on the launch.

Final Fantasy X - around 2 mln. with 5 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Final Fantasy X-2 - 2.4 mln. with 12 mln. PS2 on the launch.

 

1.8 mln. PS3 today(2008.01.17) in Japan. Now(2009.04.30) 3.16 mln. PS3 were sold in Japan.
PS3 will reach 4 mln. in Japan by the end of 2009 with average weekly sales 25k.

PS3 may reach 5 mln. in Japan by the end of 2009 with average weekly sales 50k.
PS2 2001 vs PS3 2008 sales numbers =) + New games released in Japan by 2009 that passed 100k so far

HappySqurriel on 16 January 2008
CrazzyMan said:
@HappySqurriel,

1) usually:
Japan - 20% of the console sales.
USA - 40% of the console sales.
Europe - 40% of the console sales.
PS1 Sony Mar-2007 21.59 40.78 40.12 102.49
PS2 Sony Mar-2007 25.42 47.68 44.79 117.89
60% vs 40%.

2) How MANY Big BRAND exclusive games were released on PS3?
3) How MANY Big BRAND exclusive games will be released on PS3 in 2008?

Some of the most anticipated and highest rated games of all time were released on Nintendo systems which were very affordable to the general public and it still didn't change anything. A large portion of current hardware sales are because of those "Big BRAND" exclusive games you always talk about, that have a solid appeal with the 20% of gamers who are willing to spend more than $200 on a gaming machine, but this won't change anything because the PS3 will continue to be too expensive and lack content for 80% of gamers.