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Forums - Sales - For Sony to make their PS3 fiscal forecast...

@DKII,

MY POINT.
PS2 got FFX, GTA3, GT3, MGS2, DMC in 2001.
PS3 will get FFXIII, GTA4, GT5, MGS4, DMC4 in 2008.

+

PS2 launched in March 2000. Was selling for 10 month.
PS3 launched in November 2006. Was selling for 1,5 month.

10 month of 2000 close to 1 year? YES.
1,5 month of 2006 close to 1 year? NO.
12 month of 2007 close to 1 year? YES.

Overall:
2000 PS2 = 2007 PS3.
2001 PS2 = 2008 PS3.

And i know that PS2 and PS3 launched in different times. BUT only LAUNCH date matter, BECAUSE system won`t be changed, if it will be launched after 7 month or 12 month in other region. It will still have same GPU and CPU.

IF you Disagree with my statements, say why.



Every 5 seconds on earth one child dies from hunger...

2009.04.30 - PS3 will OUTSELL x360 atleast by the middle of 2010. Japan+Europe > NA.


Gran Turismo 3 - 1,06 mln. in 3 weeks with around 4 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Gran Turismo 4 - 1,16 mln. with 18 mln. PS2 on the launch.

Final Fantasy X - around 2 mln. with 5 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Final Fantasy X-2 - 2.4 mln. with 12 mln. PS2 on the launch.

 

1.8 mln. PS3 today(2008.01.17) in Japan. Now(2009.04.30) 3.16 mln. PS3 were sold in Japan.
PS3 will reach 4 mln. in Japan by the end of 2009 with average weekly sales 25k.

PS3 may reach 5 mln. in Japan by the end of 2009 with average weekly sales 50k.
PS2 2001 vs PS3 2008 sales numbers =) + New games released in Japan by 2009 that passed 100k so far

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It's still a damn shame that Sony had to cut out one of the finer applications out of the PS3 to be able to cut those production costs (assuming that they did manage to actually axe it....). I was considering buying a ps3 because my 2001 ps2 is starting to malfunction. So right now, i have to think about getting a new ps2 rather than a "play beyond but not behind" machine.



Deep into the darkness pearing

Long i stood there

Wondering

Fearing

Doubting. 

@Crazzyman,

Well things are a little different this time around.

FFXIII, GTA4, GT5, MGS4, DMC4

FFXIII likely not until 2008
GTA4 not exclusive and infact should do better on 360 than PS3
GT5 likely not until 2008 and in 2001 if you wanted a simulator you had GT series. In 2008 Forza is a worthy competitor.
DMC4 not exclusive



Libraries sell systems not individual games

@thx1138,

I think FFXIII will come in 2008.
GTA4 is not exclusive, BUT still coming to ps3 in 2008 like GTA3 did in 2001.
GTA did it`s name on PLAYSTATION.
GT5P comes in spring, and GT5 probably in FALL 2008.
About DMC4, say that to Japanese. =)) You think they will buy x360 because of DMC4 instead of PS3? LMAO.

MGS4 coming in first part of 2008, instead of FALL. This also will effect sales.
So do and GTA4 with DMC4.



Every 5 seconds on earth one child dies from hunger...

2009.04.30 - PS3 will OUTSELL x360 atleast by the middle of 2010. Japan+Europe > NA.


Gran Turismo 3 - 1,06 mln. in 3 weeks with around 4 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Gran Turismo 4 - 1,16 mln. with 18 mln. PS2 on the launch.

Final Fantasy X - around 2 mln. with 5 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Final Fantasy X-2 - 2.4 mln. with 12 mln. PS2 on the launch.

 

1.8 mln. PS3 today(2008.01.17) in Japan. Now(2009.04.30) 3.16 mln. PS3 were sold in Japan.
PS3 will reach 4 mln. in Japan by the end of 2009 with average weekly sales 25k.

PS3 may reach 5 mln. in Japan by the end of 2009 with average weekly sales 50k.
PS2 2001 vs PS3 2008 sales numbers =) + New games released in Japan by 2009 that passed 100k so far

The point is you're trying to compare 2001 to 2008 saying that since the PS2 sold almost nothing in Jan/Feb 2001 and then sold a ton in March 2001, that the PS3 will do the same. All the while ignoring the fact that the PS2 had severe shortages in Jan/Feb 2001 which were finally resolved in March 2001 for NA. The PS3 has nothing like that. Its sales will more closely follow last year.

PS2 sales in 2001:

07th Jan 2001 to 25th Feb 2001:
Total 1,411,997
America 531,158
Japan 388,162
Total Others 492,677

04th Mar 2001 to 25th Mar 2001:
Total 976,399
America 485,314
Japan 207,447
Total Others 283,638

PS2 also shipped 9 million from April-September 2001. It shipped another 9.1 million from October 2001-March 2002. Now using, these actual numbers, what are you saying the PS3 will do? Double its US sales in March from Jan/Feb (when PS2 was having shortages?) Ship 18 million this fiscal year? Sell 1 million worldwide in March?



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ssj12 said:
Well considering Sony has managed to cut manufacturing costs by half (now $400) they have a better chance to make profit from software now that they arent losing $200 - $300 a console sold. They might be able to get the price down another $50 soon.

 I still have to see the proof that Sony cut the production costs that much, but lets assume they have: that still doesn't take into account the Research & Development costs, marketing etc...

As said before: in the end the shareholders have to approve of the current strategy and SCE is more and more becoming a burden.

Sony's strategy was to sell hardware at a loss and make money on the software. I don't think any exclusive PS3 game made a significant profit, instead I think most made serious losses.

 



shams said:

(my figures may not be precise either, as I don't have time to chase down the exact figures - but they will be close).

Sony had sold approx 3.0m PS3s as of (end) March '07.

For them to reach their target of 11m sales in this fiscal year, they need to reach (approx) 14m sales by end of March '08.

...

We are now two weeks in January - and Sony have just hit 9m (worldwide) sales.

They need to sell approximately 5m PS3s in the remainder of this quarter (say 4m, if you believe they have shipped an extra 1m units than sold this year).

I figure they have around 11 weeks to reach 5m - or approx 450k/week (worldwide) from now onwards.


Your figures are off by 0.6-2.5 million units. Sony's report for FY07 said they "shipped" 5.5 million units as of March 31, 2007 and "sold" 3.6 million units.  A quarter later they redefined their definition of "shipped", which could explain away 1.9 million of their debt.  

But when they originally made their prediction, it was clear that, by their definition, they projected 16.5 million units shipped total by the end of FY08. 



TheBigFatJ, shams was taking that into account in his initial post. (Sony already essentially lowered their projection by 2m units by changing their numbers from "manufactured" to "sold to retail".) The problem is that they will still fall far short, even with that earlier correction.

Why any of you would waste the time responding to Crazzyman is beyond me. Nothing he says makes any sense, and he is totally impervious to logical thought. I've been scrolling past his posts for months. Save yourself a headache and do the same.



My Website

End of 2008 totals: Wii 42m, 360 24m, PS3 18.5m (made Jan. 4, 2008)

By March 31st, I think the PS3 will be around 10.5 million units....so yeah.



Ugh, I give up.