i just wonder how your calculation will look like manbear?

i just made it for myself and you said japanese home console market isn't so big.

japan is like: 12.5m wii and 8.2m ps3 against 1.5m 360s atm

no clue where the sales will end but let's say next gen, nintendo would be at 10m, ps4 at 8m and 720 at 3m at the end of gen (just as example)

this would be an 15m advantage for wii/ps4.

if wii u would only sell 40m and ps4 40m in america and europe, xbox 720 would have to sell 95 million there? so xbox would have to grow a lot and wii u and playstation would have to lose a lot sales?

i have no "rest of world" numbers now but i believe playstation brand is much stronger there so i don't see xbox 720 selling more than playstaton and nintendo together. so even if they would be the same there, my calculation above (which would be very low for nintendo as example) had to come true

I blame gamrpoints for this thread.

Combined? It ll have hard time competing with ps4 alone. Fun facts
- ps3 was $600 vs. $299 360
- ps3 came out year later in us, almost 2 years later in europe
- much bigger marketing push for 360, with media backlash on ps3
- other stuff like worse multiplats, psn hack etc

STILL ps3 sold 5,6 million more in same time frame.
Just watch positions next gen if ps4 launches in similar time with 399 tag line or something like that.

Speaking of which any1 doing 2x of others competitors is almost impossible.

As much as I would like to see that happen, it will not happen because Xbox brand will never be popular in Asia and many parts of Europe.

It's obviously too early to make a prediction like that, but those are good points.
Anyway, I think that MS is in the best position to jump in a new generation, but it's difficult to know where the Xbox brand is strong and where it was Sony's fault for these good 360's sales.
What I want to say is that 360 did an amazing job during this generation, but for a lot of people it was the console to buy because PS3 was too expensive. In fact, in people's mind PS3 is a premium console, and 360 is not.

Probably this is only my point of view, also considering the fact that I'm Italian, so I live in a Nintendo-Sony land.

Edit: Anyway, it's impossible that 720 will sell more than PS4 and WiiU combined, maybe it will finish first next generation.

Ìt is possible though but only in the USA.

While I agree Xbox8 has more chances of going 1st place, It won't win by a very large margin.

That's a nice bold prediction. Anyways, I predict, if this happens, the XBOX-Next will sell as much as PS4 and WiiU combined (so selling more than PS1+PS2+WiiU). But only if your prediction is true.

I think OP is actually serious......

MS is positioned well to be the market share leader next gen, but the 50%+ prediction is too sensationalized. The later smacks of an attempt to create artificial controversy and generate volumes of contradictory responses.

It goes without saying that the majority share scenario completely depends upon MS releasing in 2012 rather than 2013. The former scenario has MS competing with Nintendo's launch (a scenario in which I can see MS leading in sales) and the latter counting on the PS4 to completely tank without any inside knowledge of what the new platform is bringing to the market while simultaneously ignoring major factors like pricing and availability.

So my equally bold "prediction" is that no console manufacture will EVER hold more than 50% market share so long as there are at least three legitimate competitors.