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Forums - General Discussion - Your first posts and/or predictions... A "I was right all along" production.

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superchunk on 12 May 2012

I joined this site at the beginning of the generation on December 20, 2006.

My first post was: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=309 (yes, the 309th post on the site and 89th thread ever created)

superchunk said:
Hello all. 1st post.

360 has only been able to sell 7 million in its 1st year. If all keeps its pace then by end of 2007 they would have 14 million at best.

Wii has two million in 1 month. By January probably 1.5 more, so 3.5 million at years end. I would say with games like smash bros., MP3, and Mario Galaxy coming out next year they should have a great year. Probably similar sells to the DS once really good games came. I think that by March they will exceed their 6 million goal and make a good 13 million by year end 2007.

ps3 is just too expensive and there will be no reduction in price any time soon. So for those of you who think a sub-$300 ps3 is coming. HA. Not for atleast 5 years. At the current price point Sony has said it will take over 3 years just to make profit. So, 1 million by years end, 4 million by March, and a whopping 8 million by end of 2007.

Jan 2007
360 - 7 million
Wii - 3.5 million
ps3 - 1 million

Jan 2008
360 - 14 million
Wii - 13 million
ps3 - 8 million

Jan 2012
360 - 47 million (Gains many once-exclusives for ps and sales well do to price reductions)
Wii - 55 million (Matches NES and SNES sales again due to expanded market, akin to DS)
ps3 - 45 million (Was able to keep a few exclusives, but eventual price drops coming too late to raise sales to ps1/2 levels)

And there you have it. Thank you for coming.

In particular I'd like to make a note at how close I was to January 2008's totals. No-one with one month of it being out was even that close. However, I didn't find it, but I have a thread from February 2007 where I revise my Jan 2008 numbers and actually predict within a week when Wii passed 360 in worldwide sales in 2007 and I move Wii's sales up to 17m. (btw final Jan 2008 numbers are 19m, 15m, 8m)

Then take a look at my Jan 2012 figures. Yes they are all low... however, I had the right order of 1st, 2nd, 3rd... AND even had the right gap between PS360. Also pretty good comments in parenthesis. Another thing to note, I chose 2012 as my year when the next gen would start. With Wii U launching this year... I think I can claim I was right on that too. (Jan 2012 numbers are 93m, 63m, 61m)

Then I come to my 2nd post.: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=310

superchunk said:
I'm thinking the DS will be the best selling gaming device in history. 120 million plus. by 6 years.

Really. Do I need to say anything more? DS released in 2004 and by 2010 it was around 140m sold. It is also going to be the best selling game console in history as well when its all said and done.

 

What's your first posts/predictions?



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Kantor on 12 May 2012

I joined in late 2008, so I suppose these were my first real predictions.

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=53712



(Former) Lead Moderator and (Eternal) VGC Detective

Jay520 on 12 May 2012

I guess D21Lewis was right. People would abuse the 'edit' function to make their past posts appear more impressive than they really were.



yo_john117 on 12 May 2012

I can't believe you went through hundreds of pages just to get that post. After about 5 minutes of going through my posts I gave up and I wasn't even 1/20th of the way through them all.



Jay520 on 12 May 2012
yo_john117 said:

I can't believe you went through hundreds of pages just to get that post. After about 5 minutes of going through my posts I gave up and I wasn't even 1/20th of the way through them all.



A good remedy is to click the previous page button and it'll go from the first page to the last page immediately!

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yo_john117 on 12 May 2012
Jay520 said:
yo_john117 said:

I can't believe you went through hundreds of pages just to get that post. After about 5 minutes of going through my posts I gave up and I wasn't even 1/20th of the way through them all.


A good remedy is to click the previous page button and it'll go from the first page to the last page immediately!

I did that and it appears the farthest back my posting history goes is to January 1st 2011.



NintendoPie on 12 May 2012

These threads are kind of scary for a newbee 0_0

Okay my predictions: 1.5 to 2.0 Mil. MHTriG is coming out in Japan and they will most likely go crazy for it, by the way SM3DLand sales are going I think it will keep pumping out at least 50'000 a week? And it should keep hardware sales pretty high too! As for MK7 I think that will open with a BANG, #plainandsimple ;)

 

 

Yuppp... there it is.



theprof00 on 12 May 2012

Hmm my best accomplishment was calling the price of the ds the day we heard about it.



superchunk on 12 May 2012

Lol I did not edit my post. I also didn't go through hundreds of pages. I manipulated the thread URL to find threads that started in Dec 2006. Then thread by thread to find them because I remembered essentially what I had wrote. I actually found the second post first. I only had to search about 40 threads. Some pretty interesting ones back then as they mostly were started by ioi.

Also my DS post was right pezus!



Salnax on 12 May 2012

The earliest prediction I could find said that the Wii would have 200 million sellers, back in January 2011.

We're at 130 or 140 at the moment.

I suck at this.



Love and tolerate.