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I joined this site at the beginning of the generation on December 20, 2006.

My first post was: (yes, the 309th post on the site and 89th thread ever created)

superchunk said:
Hello all. 1st post.

360 has only been able to sell 7 million in its 1st year. If all keeps its pace then by end of 2007 they would have 14 million at best.

Wii has two million in 1 month. By January probably 1.5 more, so 3.5 million at years end. I would say with games like smash bros., MP3, and Mario Galaxy coming out next year they should have a great year. Probably similar sells to the DS once really good games came. I think that by March they will exceed their 6 million goal and make a good 13 million by year end 2007.

ps3 is just too expensive and there will be no reduction in price any time soon. So for those of you who think a sub-$300 ps3 is coming. HA. Not for atleast 5 years. At the current price point Sony has said it will take over 3 years just to make profit. So, 1 million by years end, 4 million by March, and a whopping 8 million by end of 2007.

Jan 2007
360 - 7 million
Wii - 3.5 million
ps3 - 1 million

Jan 2008
360 - 14 million
Wii - 13 million
ps3 - 8 million

Jan 2012
360 - 47 million (Gains many once-exclusives for ps and sales well do to price reductions)
Wii - 55 million (Matches NES and SNES sales again due to expanded market, akin to DS)
ps3 - 45 million (Was able to keep a few exclusives, but eventual price drops coming too late to raise sales to ps1/2 levels)

And there you have it. Thank you for coming.

In particular I'd like to make a note at how close I was to January 2008's totals. No-one with one month of it being out was even that close. However, I didn't find it, but I have a thread from February 2007 where I revise my Jan 2008 numbers and actually predict within a week when Wii passed 360 in worldwide sales in 2007 and I move Wii's sales up to 17m. (btw final Jan 2008 numbers are 19m, 15m, 8m)

Then take a look at my Jan 2012 figures. Yes they are all low... however, I had the right order of 1st, 2nd, 3rd... AND even had the right gap between PS360. Also pretty good comments in parenthesis. Another thing to note, I chose 2012 as my year when the next gen would start. With Wii U launching this year... I think I can claim I was right on that too. (Jan 2012 numbers are 93m, 63m, 61m)

Then I come to my 2nd post.:

superchunk said:
I'm thinking the DS will be the best selling gaming device in history. 120 million plus. by 6 years.

Really. Do I need to say anything more? DS released in 2004 and by 2010 it was around 140m sold. It is also going to be the best selling game console in history as well when its all said and done.


What's your first posts/predictions?