Fun fact from NeoGaf member, Father_Brain:

Assuming, optimistically, that Vita sells 250K/month worldwide each month from April through August (September being the earliest month when retail titles announced at E3 could realistically be released) for a total of 1.25 million in the first five months of the fiscal year, Vita sales would have to quintuple to 1.25 million a month in the remaining seven months to reach 10 million units.

To even reach five million units, half of what Sony has projected, Vita sales would still have to blow up 2.5x beginning in September.

(In something close to a worst-case scenario, assuming sales double in November and December and stay at 250K for all other months, Vita would only end up selling 3.5 million worldwide, just over a third of what Sony has projected.)

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=38140935&postcount=232

Well then...here's to hoping they announce some bundles right away at E3 or maybe even a price drop in Japan.

Not too worried considering the 3DS pulled an estimated 4x to 5x for those months and a 10x to 20x during November/December. No one thought that would happen. Price cut or not, Vita is going to pull some numbers, and to be honest the software lineup is looking more impressive (alligned launch) than the 3DS had, despite Nintendo having bigger franchise names. Anti Vita sentiments are loosing steam and E3 will be the key to determining short term future success. Though the slow start doesn't scream record sales it is not going to be devastating. Looking at my prediction charts even a modest rise in Vita sale (probably due to E3 and some software releases) will have a substantial effect on the predicted outcomes of end of year sales. In fact just doubling the sales starting in September and being at the mercy of the percentages in my chart would bring the total to 8 million. Sales will be bottom heavy, it would be hard to determine end of year until fall is upon us.

Updated to May 19th

 5,247,056 Vitas sold by end of 2012!

Vita Weekly Predicted Sales 12/22/2011 - 12/31/2012

Vita Lifetime Predicted Sales 12/22/2011 - 12/31/2012

I think Gravity Rush is going to sell as well as it did in Japan in North America. The same, maybe slightly less, in Europe.

Why's that? There has been a lot of excitement over it and it is entering at a more established time, for Vita units and pre-order window. It has been getting good reviews aswell. I don't think it will blow up the sales board but I have more faith for it in North America, not sure about Europe, but Japan is a poor indicator right now.

It's a niche title.

Please clarify.

http://www.vgchartz.com/article/250155/usa-preorders-chart-19-may-2012-ghost-recon-future-soldier/ 

" Gravity Rush (PSV) added 2,163 pre-orders for a total of 10,898."

The game is gonna launch very, very soon. I don't know when, but there can't be more than 2-3 weeks before its launch, and it's only pulling 10k pre-orders. So we can see an opening week of 40k, optimistically, and 130-150k LT in the US, so 45k and 160k in Americas. Europe will be less, with 20-30k and 100-110k LT. The game will be lucky to break half a million WW LT, and, as such, is hardly a 'system seller' like people are making it out to be. Because it's a niche title.

Also, I find it quite funny how this thread is basically your chart consistantly being adjusted down for predicted sales...until September/ October, of course.

Well, it's targeting, I think, to those who are interested in open world superhero games, a la Crackdown or Infamous.