| Pokemonbrawlvg said: Fun fact from NeoGaf member, Father_Brain: Assuming, optimistically, that Vita sells 250K/month worldwide each month from April through August (September being the earliest month when retail titles announced at E3 could realistically be released) for a total of 1.25 million in the first five months of the fiscal year, Vita sales would have to quintuple to 1.25 million a month in the remaining seven months to reach 10 million units. To even reach five million units, half of what Sony has projected, Vita sales would still have to blow up 2.5x beginning in September. (In something close to a worst-case scenario, assuming sales double in November and December and stay at 250K for all other months, Vita would only end up selling 3.5 million worldwide, just over a third of what Sony has projected.) http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=38140935&postcount=232 |
Not too worried considering the 3DS pulled an estimated 4x to 5x for those months and a 10x to 20x during November/December. No one thought that would happen. Price cut or not, Vita is going to pull some numbers, and to be honest the software lineup is looking more impressive (alligned launch) than the 3DS had, despite Nintendo having bigger franchise names. Anti Vita sentiments are loosing steam and E3 will be the key to determining short term future success. Though the slow start doesn't scream record sales it is not going to be devastating. Looking at my prediction charts even a modest rise in Vita sale (probably due to E3 and some software releases) will have a substantial effect on the predicted outcomes of end of year sales. In fact just doubling the sales starting in September and being at the mercy of the percentages in my chart would bring the total to 8 million. Sales will be bottom heavy, it would be hard to determine end of year until fall is upon us.
Before the PS3 everyone was nice to me :(
