Oh, I didn't know about the pre-orders. I forgot about those. This somewhat supports what I said.
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Conegamer said:
http://www.vgchartz.com/article/250155/usa-preorders-chart-19-may-2012-ghost-recon-future-soldier/ " Gravity Rush (PSV) added 2,163 pre-orders for a total of 10,898." The game is gonna launch very, very soon. I don't know when, but there can't be more than 2-3 weeks before its launch, and it's only pulling 10k pre-orders. So we can see an opening week of 40k, optimistically, and 130-150k LT in the US, so 45k and 160k in Americas. Europe will be less, with 20-30k and 100-110k LT. The game will be lucky to break half a million WW LT, and, as such, is hardly a 'system seller' like people are making it out to be. Because it's a niche title. Also, I find it quite funny how this thread is basically your chart consistantly being adjusted down for predicted sales...until September/ October, of course. |
So it has 3 weeks of pre-order numbers from launch, 2-3k each week, so 6-9k more. Probably around 20k in pre-orders at most. There is a demo coming out this tuesday so hopefully that helps its sales out. Japan pretty much sold its 70k in the first 10 weeks and hasn't contributed much due to low sales in the country, the legs in NA and EU are better and hopefully push the software further along. It is the second highest rated Vita game on Metacritic right now at 87, Rayman Origins being 88. I really wish we had ample access to digital downloads as those could really be the difference in knowing how good these Vita games are selling. Without some good data it is impossible to tell if digital is selling as well as retail, worse or better. *Sigh*
In bold, yes that's kind of the nature of this chart, a small variation from the average percentage has wide reaching effects. Hopefully E3 will boost sales and start changing the outcome, but everything will be relying on the holidays.
Before the PS3 everyone was nice to me :(
Chark said:
So it has 3 weeks of pre-order numbers from launch, 2-3k each week, so 6-9k more. Probably around 20k in pre-orders at most. There is a demo coming out this tuesday so hopefully that helps its sales out. Japan pretty much sold its 70k in the first 10 weeks and hasn't contributed much due to low sales in the country, the legs in NA and EU are better and hopefully push the software further along. It is the second highest rated Vita game on Metacritic right now at 87, Rayman Origins being 88. I really wish we had ample access to digital downloads as those could really be the difference in knowing how good these Vita games are selling. Without some good data it is impossible to tell if digital is selling as well as retail, worse or better. *Sigh* In bold, yes that's kind of the nature of this chart, a small variation from the average percentage has wide reaching effects. Hopefully E3 will boost sales and start changing the outcome, but everything will be relying on the holidays. |
What you said, especially about the digital sales, is pretty bang on. But don't expect many more sales over pre-orders, it's not the game that really sells. Heck, here in the UK it's a digital-only release I believe (which is a shame because my memory card isn't big enough to hold it >.<).
And yeah, the chart is pretty darn good, and I reckon it's a bit pessimistic. 5.5mil is a good number.
EDIT: Minor Adjustment +14 units
All time low for these charts, just under 5 million. But just so everyone knows the average percentage change for June was 5% and July -16%, considering Vita will most likely recieve some sort of a bump, modest or not, the results for this month will be on the rise. Game releases like Reistence Burning Skies and Gravity Rush will be the most notible releases, among others, but apps like YouTube hitting this month will also give the Vita some attention. Whether Vita will sell like I expect will depend on its momentum starting up until this Fall. Let E3 approach!
Before the PS3 everyone was nice to me :(
Before the PS3 everyone was nice to me :(
You know I see the Vita as an unfinished product.(Just like I did the 3DS at launch)
The Vita is barely getting a Youtube app.....that should have been there on Day 1.
Playstation Suite(Mobile) is going to be a big part of the Vita, yet it doesn't even have a release date yet. Again, this should have been there Day 1.
I also hear stuff about that Vita OS not being as good as it could be. Hopefully with firmware updates everything is perfected.
So my prediction for year-end sales is 4.5million. 6million if it has a good holiday.
And we are back up over 5 million. Just this modest increase reflected a 400k shift, and all thanks to Japan's numbers really. Hopefully they get back up to healthy levels.
Before the PS3 everyone was nice to me :(
but the graph shows a bit less than 5m...
I think there's an issue with your algorithm. No way should an increase of around 10k units over the previous month increase things overall by 500k...
I think it'll hit 5mil, almost exactly. Far less than the 3DS' 11mil...
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