Updated to July 7th

 4,905,089 Vitas sold by end of 2012!

Vita Weekly Predicted Sales 12/22/2011 - 12/31/2012

Vita Lifetime Predicted Sales 12/22/2011 - 12/31/2012

A rather terrible week. Japan dropped back down from decent levels from popular software releases, though just under 13,000 is better than some of its last few months. US and UK sales are dropping pretty low contributing to the lackluster sales. We are entering a season of very low software release activity for the Vita. Notable on the horizon is SoundShapes which those who buy it will receive the PS3 and the Vita version of the game. More games are trying for this route, which might add to the value of the Vita for any current PS3 owner. Though anything can happen, sales are not expected to hit any high levels until October but there are almost 3 months left to change the sales. PSone compatibility is set to hit with a firmware update sometime this summer. Though I doubt that will contribute to a large influx of Vita sales, many a fan demand that functionality.

Updated to July 14th

 4,902,236 Vitas sold by end of 2012!

Vita Weekly Predicted Sales 12/22/2011 - 12/31/2012

Vita Lifetime Predicted Sales 12/22/2011 - 12/31/2012

Well things are pretty much the same this week. Last week adjusted up to 48,431 and the current week of 46,390 holds 2nd worst week for Vita since WW release.

So here are some fun facts!!!!

Predicted worst week: August 4th at 41,029 RIVETING!

Predicted best week: December 15th at 269,809 What a Merry Christmas!

Highest predicted percentage change: November 24th 117% Sony's books will be in the black...

Wild scenario if all PSP sales become Vita sales starting this week: 7,158,598 Vitas sold WOWSERS!

4,868,903 Vitas sold by end of 2012!

Vita Weekly Predicted Sales 12/22/2011 - 12/31/2012

Vita Lifetime Predicted Sales 12/22/2011 - 12/31/2012

Not too much excitement right now. Gamescom, y u no now?

Oh, this is also the lowest sales week since WW release.

seems logical
not too bad

This is a very interesting thread. Keep up the good work!

Also,may I ask what method / program you use for your predictions? Looks very sophisticated.

Pretty basic actually. I just pulled in the numbers from VGChartz and plugged it into Excell. It's the percentage change based on last years weeks applied to the previous week and carried forward to the rest of the year. It's why a boost or a drop in sales from one week to the next can dramatically alter the outcome. I've tested the previous two years but the results are very similar so last year is accurate enough. Since Vita is a new system it can steer away from the trend, some big titles or if psp sales start turning into Vita sales we could see some pretty impressive numbers. Though I can't be sure until after gamescom and TGS, hitting that 10 million mark Sony projected a few months ago, is starting to look out of reach.

I'd say 5mil sounds about right, but I think we'll see a few weeks under 40k pretty soon :/