I've been revising some of my models in the wake of final 2007 sales, and I now have arrived at a few different conclusions for my worldwide sales expectations.
As a frame of reference look at this track of worldwide market share every three months since 12/31/06:
| Market Share Progress | |||||
| Nintendo Wii | 24.36% | 32.21% | 38.67% | 42.03% | 43.55% |
| Microsoft Xbox 360 | 65.50% | 52.16% | 45.10% | 41.11% | 36.67% |
| Sony Playstation 3 | 10.14% | 15.63% | 16.22% | 16.86% | 19.77% |
| Q4 06' | Q1 07' | Q2 07' | Q3 07' | Q4 07' | |
| Pricing | PSP cut | PS3 cut | PS3 cut | ||
| 360 cut | |||||
| Region Notes | Launch | Launch | Gold Wk | PSP Lite | Mario G. |
| PS3 J/A | PS3 - Eur | Halo 3 | DQ IV | ||
| Wii - WW | Big JP Jan | DW 6 | GHIII | ||
| Wii Sports | Mario P8 | Rockband | |||
| Gears | Bioshock | Mass Eff. | |||
| Madden | Wii Fit | ||||
| Metroid | |||||
| Lifetime Sales W/W | 12.153 | 17.923 | 23.085 | 29.179 | 43.972 |
Since the end of 2006, Nintendo and Sony have both effectively doubled their market shares. Microsoft lost 30% market share worldwide, and it was clearly a transition year.
Sales for 2007 were -
| Consoles in 2007 | Wii | PS3 | X360 | PSP | DS | PS2 |
| Total | 16,192,449 | 7,461,786 | 8,166,015 | 11,236,553 | 29,934,694 | 8,868,374 |
| America | 7,224,099 | 2,726,861 | 5,250,592 | 3,972,467 | 10,406,569 | 4,072,632 |
| Japan | 3,681,239 | 1,218,612 | 257,924 | 3,108,016 | 7,311,618 | 810,152 |
| Total Others | 5,287,111 | 3,516,313 | 2,657,499 | 4,156,070 | 12,216,507 | 3,985,590 |
After going through the regions, my rough estimates for 2008, at this early juncture are -
| Consoles in 2008 | Wii | PS3 | X360 | PSP | DS | PS2 |
| Total | 23,400,000 | 10,000,000 | 7,000,000 | 9,500,000 | 24,500,000 | 5,750,000 |
| America | 11,700,000 | 3,300,000 | 4,750,000 | 3,250,000 | 8,000,000 | 2,750,000 |
| Japan | 4,350,000 | 2,000,000 | 250,000 | 2,750,000 | 6,500,000 | 450,000 |
| Total Others | 7,350,000 | 4,700,000 | 2,000,000 | 3,500,000 | 10,000,000 | 2,550,000 |
In 2008, DS will still be the top selling system worldwide - but I have it much closer than this year. PS3 will also outsell PS2 in all regions next year. My theory is PS3 will be $300/$400 by the end of next year - preventing it from peaking despite a lot of good games and Blu Ray gains because of pricing. In 2009, Wii will begin a long, slow decline, right as PS3 peaks. For the years after, I have the gap Wii outsell PS3 narrowing each year - as the price difference drops, and PS3's future proofing allow it decline more slowly - but I have Wii maintaining a unit sales lead each year, simply because of its higher peak, publisher economics, and momentum despite the narrowing gap.
| Consoles in 2009 | Wii | PS3 | X360 | PSP | DS | PS2 |
| Total | 20,500,000 | 12,000,000 | 5,200,000 | 7,500,000 | 20,500,000 | 3,700,000 |
| America | 10,000,000 | 5,000,000 | 3,500,000 | 2,500,000 | 6,500,000 | 1,900,000 |
| Japan | 4,000,000 | 1,500,000 | 100,000 | 2,250,000 | 5,500,000 | 160,000 |
| Total Others | 6,500,000 | 5,500,000 | 1,600,000 | 2,750,000 | 8,500,000 | 1,640,000 |
| Consoles in 2010 | Wii | PS3 | X360 | PSP | DS | PS2 |
| Total | 15,500,000 | 10,500,000 | 4,000,000 | 5,500,000 | 13,500,000 | 1,700,000 |
| America | 7,500,000 | 4,500,000 | 2,750,000 | 2,000,000 | 4,750,000 | 1,000,000 |
| Japan | 3,000,000 | 1,200,000 | 50,000 | 1,500,000 | 3,500,000 | 70,000 |
| Total Others | 5,000,000 | 4,800,000 | 1,200,000 | 2,000,000 | 5,250,000 | 630,000 |
| Consoles in 2011 | Wii | PS3 | X360 | PSP | DS | PS2 |
| Total | 11,000,000 | 8,250,000 | 2,500,000 | 3,300,000 | 8,000,000 | 150,000 |
| America | 5,325,000 | 4,000,000 | 2,000,000 | 1,250,000 | 3,000,000 | 100,000 |
| Japan | 2,225,000 | 1,000,000 | 900,000 | 2,100,000 | ||
| Total Others | 3,450,000 | 3,250,000 | 500,000 | 1,150,000 | 2,900,000 | 50,000 |
| Consoles in 2012 | Wii | PS3 | X360 | PSP | DS | PS2 |
| Total | 8,000,000 | 6,500,000 | 1,500,000 | 2,100,000 | 5,500,000 | |
| America | 3,750,000 | 3,400,000 | 1,400,000 | 800,000 | 2,100,000 | |
| Japan | 1,350,000 | 500,000 | 600,000 | 1,500,000 | ||
| Total Others | 2,900,000 | 2,600,000 | 100,000 | 700,000 | 1,900,000 |
| Consoles in 2013 | Wii | PS3 | X360 | PSP | DS |
| Total | 6,250,000 | 5,000,000 | 500,000 | 500,000 | 3,500,000 |
| America | 3,000,000 | 2,750,000 | 500,000 | 200,000 | 1,350,000 |
| Japan | 1,000,000 | 150,000 | 125,000 | 1,000,000 | |
| Total Others | 2,250,000 | 2,100,000 | 175,000 | 1,150,000 |
| Consoles in 2014 | Wii | PS3 | PSP | DS |
| Total | 4,000,000 | 3,000,000 | 100,000 | 1,300,000 |
| America | 2,000,000 | 1,750,000 | 50,000 | 500,000 |
| Japan | 350,000 | 20,000 | 375,000 | |
| Total Others | 1,650,000 | 1,250,000 | 30,000 | 425,000 |
| Consoles in 2015 | Wii | PS3 | DS |
| Total | 2,000,000 | 1,000,000 | 200,000 |
| America | 1,200,000 | 650,000 | 100,000 |
| Japan | 40,000 | ||
| Total Others | 800,000 | 350,000 | 60,000 |
| Consoles in 2015 | Wii | PS3 |
| Total | 300,000 | 150,000 |
| America | 200,000 | 100,000 |
| Japan | ||
| Total Others | 100,000 | 50,000 |
Lifetime sales, using 2007 sales, and using my projections would yield sell through figures like this (see next post)
People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.
When there are more laws, there are more criminals.
- Lao Tzu
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