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I could be wrong, but with how you suggest the PS3 will have sold up until 2011 I see no reason why it would continue to sell at any noticeable level past 2012 ...

With the way technology improves, by 2011 Microsoft and Nintendo will be able to produce a system (at least) 4 to 8 times as powerful as the PS3 with built in Blu-Ray/HD-DVD player and 64GB worth of Flash memory for $200 to $300. The sales you suggest for the PS3 does not justify a lot of exclusive support and third party publishers will not see it as a priority when they need to start re-allocating resources towards the next generation of consoles and portable systems.