I'd be pleasantly surprised for any number over 80k.

Eh I won't give an exact number prediction other than the game will be massively front loaded.

Its as niche of a game as there is in the modern gaming landscape and will only appeal to hardcore RPG fans. The game looks fantastic but let's be honest with ourselves here this isn't the hey day of JRPG's anymore like it was during the PS1, PS2 days.

Still though should do respectable all things considered.

My prediction is 175k, I already preordered 2 copies.
The international sales will not help that much, the official Nintendo store in my country is not selling the game and I think that is the case is other places.

 so 1 million FW?

 Just kidding... I completely agree with you. I dont expect anything spectacular but something reasonable at least. 

We'll probably get an opening number of like 120k which is later adjusted down to like 80k.

There just seems to be so many factors working against it, and preorder numbers have been very wrong before.

What, even you don't believe pre-order numbers??

I mean, they've been wrong before, and I also hold little faith, but let's just remember that it's a Gamestop exclusive. That means only one shop to obtain data from. And Nintendo, which is probably the most reliable anyway. So I doubt they can be widely wrong with information coming from just one source...

...or, at least, I certainly hope anyway. I think the absolute minimum it would do is 125k, even with all these factors against it. But 200k area seems more likely and falls in place with the pre-orders.

60 K

Final Fantasy XIII-2 did about twice as good in USA week 1 as in europe. I'll guess the same here. Xenoblade did about 26k week 1 in europe.

VGC was massively wrong on pre-orders with that title too.

There's differing factors ofcourse. Xenoblade having better word of mouth, xenoblade being on a dead console. not being released at the same time, and others.

I already own it and it's great, however there's been other great RPG's that people don't buy either. Not just this gen.

Normally I would agree with you, but...the pre-orders are already at 150k with 4 weeks to go! I just don't see the pre-orders being THAT far off, that they're over 3X higher than actual pre-orders and FW sales in the US.

I'll go with 160~180k. It would be fantastic if it can get 400k LT in NA but I don't think It will reach that, maybe 300k LT

I'm definetely not confident in my guess. I also guessed that because nobody else guessed that low :P, I think