Very true, I must have overlooked the word January. 100m looks more possible now.

Considering how much larger the gaming market is now than back in the NES days, this isn't that surprising.

well.. i think the PlayStation 3 will cross 110 million in its life span for the following reasons:

1- Sony is pushing its first party support like never before with lots of diverse quality games each year.

2-the main reason why it had a slow launch was because of its high price point and had no games which the system has lots of now.

3-the PS2 sold most of it sales when it reached the 199$ price tag meaning a lot of people are on the fence of buying a PS3 till it reaches the 199$ price.

4-the PS3 has a lot of value in it with its blue-ray tech and cell processor and a handful library of great exclusives.

5-Sony is obviously gonna support the PS3 the most since it costed them big losses and planning on getting those money back and more!.

non-gravity said: Mummelmann said: It should reach around 80 million along with the 360, far more than anyone expected for the 360 (and the PS3, midway through this generation). All in all, not too shabby for 3rd place. At the same Wii is probably doing weaker at this point than people were expecting midway through.   If PS3 does 13 million this year and then starts dropping 40% every year than it'll sell 35 million more, putting it around ~96 million. If Wii does a measly 8 million this year and then drops 40% every year than it'll sell 20 million more, putting it around ~114 million.

There were actually those crazy people who thought that the Wii could not possibly sustain such an incredible pace of sales and that it could very well end up as a "brightest star burns the quickest". The problem was the gross polarization of the discussion. I myself suggested through the years that I believed we would see a fairly significant drop in sales after a relatively short amount of time for various reasons (market moving ever faster, tech lagging, Japan market slowing down, nature of the average casual customer, 3rd party relations etc) but was always shot down something like this; "So you're saying that it will suddenly stop selling?! Haha, that's lunacy!"

So you assume world will end in 2012 ?

Mummelmann said: non-gravity said: Mummelmann said: It should reach around 80 million along with the 360, far more than anyone expected for the 360 (and the PS3, midway through this generation). All in all, not too shabby for 3rd place. At the same Wii is probably doing weaker at this point than people were expecting midway through.   If PS3 does 13 million this year and then starts dropping 40% every year than it'll sell 35 million more, putting it around ~96 million. If Wii does a measly 8 million this year and then drops 40% every year than it'll sell 20 million more, putting it around ~114 million.     There were actually those crazy people who thought that the Wii could not possibly sustain such an incredible pace of sales and that it could very well end up as a "brightest star burns the quickest". The problem was the gross polarization of the discussion. I myself suggested through the years that I believed we would see a fairly significant drop in sales after a relatively short amount of time for various reasons (market moving ever faster, tech lagging, Japan market slowing down, nature of the average casual customer, 3rd party relations etc) but was always shot down something like this; "So you're saying that it will suddenly stop selling?! Haha, that's lunacy!"

Looking back you'd think it was rather obvious Wii would fade out first, to the majority of its target audience it isn't really a video game system. It was never going to be sustainable.

Wii is already down in the US this year 400k (probably close to 1m worldwide now) given they shipped 10m last year, they're going to ship way less than 8m this year. They'll be lucky to hit 110m lifetime at this point.

Seece said: Mummelmann said: non-gravity said: Mummelmann said: It should reach around 80 million along with the 360, far more than anyone expected for the 360 (and the PS3, midway through this generation). All in all, not too shabby for 3rd place. At the same Wii is probably doing weaker at this point than people were expecting midway through.   If PS3 does 13 million this year and then starts dropping 40% every year than it'll sell 35 million more, putting it around ~96 million. If Wii does a measly 8 million this year and then drops 40% every year than it'll sell 20 million more, putting it around ~114 million.     There were actually those crazy people who thought that the Wii could not possibly sustain such an incredible pace of sales and that it could very well end up as a "brightest star burns the quickest". The problem was the gross polarization of the discussion. I myself suggested through the years that I believed we would see a fairly significant drop in sales after a relatively short amount of time for various reasons (market moving ever faster, tech lagging, Japan market slowing down, nature of the average casual customer, 3rd party relations etc) but was always shot down something like this; "So you're saying that it will suddenly stop selling?! Haha, that's lunacy!" Looking back you'd think it was rather obvious Wii would fade out first, to the majority of its target audience it isn't really a video game system. It was never going to be sustainable. Wii is already down in the US this year 400k (probably close to 1m worldwide now) given they shipped 10m last year, they're going to ship way less than 8m this year. They'll be lucky to hit 110m lifetime at this point.

it will be impossible to hit 110M, about 105M LT shipped.

Seece said: Mummelmann said: non-gravity said: Mummelmann said: It should reach around 80 million along with the 360, far more than anyone expected for the 360 (and the PS3, midway through this generation). All in all, not too shabby for 3rd place. At the same Wii is probably doing weaker at this point than people were expecting midway through.   If PS3 does 13 million this year and then starts dropping 40% every year than it'll sell 35 million more, putting it around ~96 million. If Wii does a measly 8 million this year and then drops 40% every year than it'll sell 20 million more, putting it around ~114 million.     There were actually those crazy people who thought that the Wii could not possibly sustain such an incredible pace of sales and that it could very well end up as a "brightest star burns the quickest". The problem was the gross polarization of the discussion. I myself suggested through the years that I believed we would see a fairly significant drop in sales after a relatively short amount of time for various reasons (market moving ever faster, tech lagging, Japan market slowing down, nature of the average casual customer, 3rd party relations etc) but was always shot down something like this; "So you're saying that it will suddenly stop selling?! Haha, that's lunacy!" Looking back you'd think it was rather obvious Wii would fade out first, to the majority of its target audience it isn't really a video game system. It was never going to be sustainable. Wii is already down in the US this year 400k (probably close to 1m worldwide now) given they shipped 10m last year, they're going to ship way less than 8m this year. They'll be lucky to hit 110m lifetime at this point.

I'd say Wii's decrease in sales mostly has to do with Nintendo basically abandoning it to focus on their new systems and not 'casuals'. If Nintendo were still supporting it to the extent that Sony and MS are still supporting their system, I don't think it would be in the same situation it currently is.

No offense but I have to laugh at people who expect the PS3 to finish this generation with fewer sales than the 360. Price point has to be taken into account and the PS3 has much to gain from further price cuts. I'd guess that the PS3 will end up moving 100 million units by the end of the generation.

I don't see how it's a victory for Sony when they lost what? $50-100 on average per console over 60 million consoles? Sure it's a landmark but I could hardly call it a victory. Sony can't exactly afford that *kind* of success.