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Seece on 10 March 2012
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Mummelmann said:
non-gravity said:
Mummelmann said:
It should reach around 80 million along with the 360, far more than anyone expected for the 360 (and the PS3, midway through this generation). All in all, not too shabby for 3rd place.

At the same Wii is probably doing weaker at this point than people were expecting midway through.

 

If PS3 does 13 million this year and then starts dropping 40% every year than it'll sell 35 million more, putting it around ~96 million.

If Wii does a measly 8 million this year and then drops 40% every year than it'll sell 20 million more, putting it around ~114 million.

 

 

There were actually those crazy people who thought that the Wii could not possibly sustain such an incredible pace of sales and that it could very well end up as a "brightest star burns the quickest". The problem was the gross polarization of the discussion. I myself suggested through the years that I believed we would see a fairly significant drop in sales after a relatively short amount of time for various reasons (market moving ever faster, tech lagging, Japan market slowing down, nature of the average casual customer, 3rd party relations etc) but was always shot down something like this; "So you're saying that it will suddenly stop selling?! Haha, that's lunacy!"

Looking back you'd think it was rather obvious Wii would fade out first, to the majority of its target audience it isn't really a video game system. It was never going to be sustainable.

Wii is already down in the US this year 400k (probably close to 1m worldwide now) given they shipped 10m last year, they're going to ship way less than 8m this year. They'll be lucky to hit 110m lifetime at this point.